US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: USD PRICE ACTION HINGES ON STIMULUS DEAL DRIVEN VOLATILITY Advertisement

Fiscal stimulus negotiations continue to largely drive the direction of the US Dollar. The DXY Index declined around half a percent during Monday’s trading session with FX traders still seeming optimistic that US politicians can agree on another coronavirus aid . . . → Read More: USD Price Outlook: US Dollar Mired by Fiscal Stimulus Deadline

EUR/USD Outlook

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Renewed Hopes for US Stimulus Weighs on Dollar Strength

The need for additional Fiscal stimulus in the US is becoming a matter of urgency as the second wave of the Coronavirus pandemic, combined . . . → Read More: Euro Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Tests Trendline Resistance

Canadian Dollar, CAD, USD/CAD, AUD/CAD Talking Points: Advertisement

It’s been another bearish start to the week for the US Dollar, and in USD/CAD, this has helped the pair to push back down to a key area of support. This is around the same area that prices were trading at when I last wrote . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD Support, AUD/CAD Breakdown

Trump versus Biden Policies Overview The November 3 elections are around the corner, and the state of the economy thanks to the coronavirus pandemic is at the top of voters’ minds. While a Trump administration would likely continuation of lower tax rates, a Biden administration might bring about the end to trade wars. The . . . → Read More: Trump Vs. Biden on Economies and Markets

South African Rand Analysis: The ZAR regained all of its lost ground after the announcement of the recovery plan USD/ZAR continues to oscillate around the 16.50 mark Focus shifts to the delayed Medium-Term Budget statement later this month which is set to reveal how the economic recovery plan is to be financed Advertisement ZAR . . . → Read More: Rand (ZAR) Update: Funding the Recovery Plan, Budget Speech in Focus

The Australian Dollar was the worst performing major currency last week. AUD price action weakened sharply in response to increasingly dovish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Reports that China has suspended coal imports from their Australian neighbors likely contributed to the move lower by the pro-risk Aussie against top safe-haven currencies . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: US Dollar, Euro, S&P 500, Oil, China GDP, Global PMIs, Brexit

S&P 500 FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BULLISH The S&P 500 index may weather through near-term headwinds and aim for higher levels So far in the earnings season, over 80% of the index’s constituents have beaten estimates US election and slower recovery are the key risks amid a second viral wave S&P 500 Index Outlook: Advertisement

. . . → Read More: S&P 500 May Eye Higher Levels on Upbeat Earnings, Stimulus Hopes

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USD/MXNFundamental Forecast: Neutral Advertisement

This past week we’ve seen uncertainty return to the markets and the Mexican Peso losing its winning streak against the US Dollar as US stimulus hopes fade given political impasse in Congress. The safe-haven Dollar managed to regain some upside momentum as traders . . . → Read More: Mexican Peso Fundamental Forecast: Dependent on Presidential Election Outcome

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Fundamental Euro Forecast: Bearish Countries across Europe are reporting a resurgence in Covid-19 infections after a brief lull, although that could be due simply to increased testing. If confirmed, the European economy may not outperform the US in the way previously expected, and that could damage EUR/USD, particularly . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Outlook Bearish as Second Wave of Covid-19 Hits Europe

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Gold Talking Points

The price of gold pulls back from the monthly high ($1933) as the US Dollar appreciates against most of its major counterparts, and the precious metal may continue to exhibit an inverse relationship with the Greenback as the Federal Reserve vows to “increase its . . . → Read More: Gold to Retain Inverse Relationship to USD on Dovish Fed Guidance

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Crude Oil Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Crude oil prices are at risk of breaking lower on the back of the IEA’s downbeat outlook on global demand. However, shrinking American crude stockpiles may limit the potential downside for oil prices in the near-term.

Recommended by Daniel . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Prices in Jeopardy Ahead of OPEC JMMC Meeting

GBP/USDFUNDAMENTAL HIGHLIGHTS: Neutral Boris Johnson Steps up No-Deal Rhetoric, but Talks Continue Brexit Headline Watching to Maintain Choppy GBP Conditions Boris Johnson Steps up No-Deal Rhetoric, but Talks Continue

The soft-deadline of the EU summit has passed with little progress between the EU and UK, which in turn has seen the UK . . . → Read More: GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Eyes Brexit Latest

USD PRICE OUTLOOK: US DOLLAR TURNS HIGHER AFTER RETAIL SALES, CONSUMER SENTIMENT BEAT MARKET EXPECTATIONS US Dollar advanced on the back of monthly retail sales and consumer sentiment data DXY Index fueled largely by market volatility stemming from fiscal stimulus talks USD price action also getting strong-armed by major FX peers like the EUR . . . → Read More: US Dollar Perks Up as Retail Sales, Sentiment Data Top Forecast

US Elections Coverage Landing Page U.S. elections are coming down to the wire, with less than three weeks to go until November 3. A mixed composition of Congress could be the worst outcome for financial markets, while full Democratic or Republican control of Washington, D.C. could prove positive, regardless of specific policy outcomes. . . . → Read More: How Will Markets React to the 2020 Election?

USD/ZAR Outlook: Political Pressure Intensifies

Although South Africa is still experiencing the first wave of the Coronavirus pandemic, the emerging market, which was already in a recession prior to the pandemic, is struggling to recover and regain investor confidence. Following on from Cyril Ramaphosa’s unveiling of an economic recovery plan yesterday, the market . . . → Read More: South African Rand Dollar Forecast: USD/ZAR Indecisive as Political Pressure Intensifies

FTSE 100 Price, Chart and Analysis: EU/UK trade talks – the point of no return? FTSE currently blocked by moving average resistance. Client sentiment suggests the FTSE may fall further. Advertisement

The FTSE 100 is trying to push higher in early turnover and claw back some of this week’s losses as COVID-19 lockdowns . . . → Read More: FTSE 100 – Latest Recovery Heading into a Cluster of Resistance as EU/UK Trade Talks Unfold

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Price Analysis & News UK Johnson to Decide Whether to Walk or Let Deadline Pass Another Volatile Day for GBP is Expected Advertisement

Update After Boris Johnson Statement: Given the lack of progress made at the EU summit, UK PM Johnson stepped up his no-deal rhetoric, stating that the UK . . . → Read More: Brexit Latest: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Focused on Boris Johnson Decision

EUR/USD, European Central Bank, Euro-zone Inflation, Covid-19 – Talking Points: Equity markets drifted lower during Asian trade as the lack of progress in US fiscal talks continues to gnaw at market sentiment. Upcoming inflation data could dictate the near-term outlook for the growth-sensitive Euro. EUR/USD poised to extend its decline after failing to break . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Outlook: Vulnerable to Further Losses on Muted Inflation

Crude Oil, Gold, XAU/USD, US Stimulus, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment – Talking Points: Crude oil prices trimmed losses on falling inventory, US stimulus bets Gold prices may fall if US retail sales, sentiment disappoints later on WTI facing mixed technical signals, XAU/USD still favoring downside Advertisement

Crude oil prices swung between losses and . . . → Read More: Crude Oil, Gold Prices May Fall on US Retail Sales and Sentiment Data

Copper Prices, Chinese Economic Growth, COVID Copper pushes higher despite mixed risk sentiment Supply disruptions ease, but Chinese demand continues Upcoming Chinese Q3 GDP could boost copper further

Copper fell with the broader market earlier this month as the red metal sank to its lowest point since August 14 in the opening days . . . → Read More: Copper Price Forecast: Will Chinese GDP Push Copper to New Highs?

S&P 500 PRICE OUTLOOK: STOCKS SEARCH FOR SUPPORT AMID LESS EXPECTED ELECTION VOLATILITY, FISCAL STIMULUS ‘CAN-KICKING’ S&P 500 dropped for the third-straight session owing to less fiscal stimulus optimism Major stock indices have faced selling pressure as investor sentiment softens broadly VIX Index compression could support stocks in light of reduced US election uncertainty . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Bolstered by VIX Compression as Election Fear Fades

Central Bank Watch Overview:

The BOC and RBA are likely to stay on hold for the foreseeable future; traders may disregard quirks in the overnight index swaps curves suggesting otherwise in the near-term, given commentary from central bank governors. The RBNZ, on the other hand, seems poised to move into negative interest rate . . . → Read More: Central Bank Watch: BOC, RBA, & RBNZ Rate Expectations; AUD, CAD, NZD Positioning Update

British Pound, GBP, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP Talking Points: GBP/USD put in a two-week streak-of-strength but ran into a wall of resistance earlier this week. While USD may have a fairly chaotic backdrop around the election, there may be more compelling setups on either side of Sterling by looking towards GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP. The analysis . . . → Read More: British Pound Price Forecast: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP

Gold Price Forecast: Gold prices had coiled into a falling wedge pattern but a failed break has muddied the outlook As a result, the precious metal may continue to consolidate, remaining vulnerable to further losses Still, the longer-term fundamental outlook for the commodity remains encouraging Gold Price Outlook Pulls Back After Failed Break Out . . . → Read More: Gold Price Outlook Pulls Back After Failed Break Out Attempt

AUD/USD PRICE OUTLOOK: AUSTRALIAN JOBS, US RETAIL SALES & SENTIMENT DATA TO DRIVE AUSSIE-DOLLAR VOLATILITY AUD/USD gyrated during Wednesday’s trading session only to finish roughly flat AUD/USD price action looks primed for volatility in light of key economic data due The Aussie-Dollar remains exposed to potential swings in market sentiment Advertisement

The Australian . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Price Outlook: Aussie-Dollar Eyes Key Data on Deck

Canadian Dollar, USD/CAD, AUD/CAD, GBP/CAD Talking Points: The Canadian Dollar has shown a general tendency towards strength over the past week. USD/CAD may be problematic for CAD-bulls given proximity to the 1.3000 psychological level. The analysis contained in article relies on price action and chart formations. To learn more about price action or chart . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD, AUD/CAD, GBP/CAD

Brexit Latest News:

Although an October 15 deadline arrives tomorrow, both EU and UK leadership have expressed optimism that a deal will get done soon; comments by German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz suggested a last minute deal would be possible. While some technical hurdles remain, the British Pound is beginning to get into . . . → Read More: Brexit Latest: Deal Optimism Stokes British Pound Rally – Levels for EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD

USD/ZAR Price, Analysis and Charts: President Ramaphosa to unveil 8 priority areas in the economic recovery plan USD/ZAR showing short term consolidation around 16.50 and other tech levels to consider in the run up to the US election Finance Minister seeks one week postponement to deliver the Mid Term Budget Policy Statement citing time . . . → Read More: Rand (USD/ZAR) Update: Ramaphosa to Unveil Economic Recovery Plan

Nasdaq 100 Price Outlook: Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Tech Stock Rally Stops to Catch its Breath, What Next?

Resistance looked to keep the Nasdaq 100 in check last week as a technical barrier around the 11,570 mark loomed over the tech-heavy index. Evidently, the bullish break on Friday opened the door for a continuation . . . → Read More: Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Tech Stock Rally Stops to Catch its Breath, What Next?

US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: USD PRICE VOLATILITY HEIGHTENED AMID FISCAL STIMULUS DEAL NEGOTIATIONS AS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION LOOMS The DXY Index ripped higher Tuesday on the back of broad-based US Dollar strength USD price action gained ground largely in response to dwindling stimulus deal optimism US Dollar could rise further with EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD looking . . . → Read More: USD Price Outlook: US Dollar Fueled by Stimulus Deal Volatility

EUR/USD, Euro Talking Points: Advertisement

EUR/USD has returned to a key spot on the chart this morning and, so far, that price has helped to hold the lows. But at this early stage of the matter sellers don’t appear to be deterred, begging the question of for how long might this support zone . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Euro Makes Round Trip Back to Key Zone

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Technical Outlook: GBP/USD breaking out above resistance EUR/USD rising in near-term channel formation DXY working lower towards big retest of long-term support Advertisement

GBP/USD is doing its best to hold onto prior resistance turned support around the 13000 level, which also happens to be the neckline of an inverse . . . → Read More: GBP/USD, EUR/USD, DXY: Charts & Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Analysis:

USD/JPY continues to waver around 105.000 Expected upcoming volatility may support safe-haven Yen IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) supportive of bearish bias Advertisement

With uncertainty around US elections and contentious stimulus package negotiations, the Japanese Yen (JPY) has strengthened against the US Dollar of recent. The new Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide . . . → Read More: USD/JPY Price – Testing Support on Multi-Year Descending Triangle

Central Bank Watch Overview:

As Eurozone economic data has continued to struggle, European Central Bank interest rate expectations have steadied in April 2021. It’s still the case that neither the Bank of England nor the Federal Reserve are expected to shift policy in 2020; the BOE is likelier than the Fed to move . . . → Read More: Central Bank Watch: BOE, ECB, & Fed Rate Expectations; EUR, GBP, USD Positioning Update

OIL PRICE OUTLOOK: CRUDE OIL THREATENED BY FAILED STIMULUS TALKS AMID RISING OIL PRODUCTION PROSPECTS Crude oil prices dropped about 3% during Monday trade as commodities recoil lower Bearish headlines pointing to higher global oil supply likely explain the downward move Oil volatility looks largely fueled by market sentiment surrounding fiscal stimulus talks Advertisement . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Outlook Mired by Stimulus Deal as Libya Lifts Supply

Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis: Silver experienced recent gains coinciding with a weaker USD but now tests confluent resistance Key technical levels for XAGUSD as the metal approaches the 23.6% Fib IG Client Sentiment remains significantly net long Advertisement Fundamental Drivers for Silver Remain

Silver has posted a sizeable rebound off the September low which . . . → Read More: Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Bulls Face Stern Resistance

Gold Price Forecast Talking Points: For nine years the 1920 level loomed large for Gold prices, as this was the prior all-time-high set in 2011. In late-July, an aggressive bullish trend in Gold prices took out that level on the way to a fresh all-time-high at 2075. After a two-month round of digestion, Gold . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Attempts to Set Support at Big Level

The anti-risk US Dollar and Japanese Yen weakened this past week as a revival in fiscal stimulus hopes bolstered global market sentiment. The S&P 500 gained 3.84% in its best week since late June. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite soared 4.56%. Anti-fiat gold prices capitalized on weakness in the Greenback, rallying for a second . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Nasdaq 100, US Dollar, Gold, Stimulus, GPB, Brexit, Earnings

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Neutral US Dollar was under pressure on revived US stimulus hopes Polling updates may sink USD, economic data risks souring Third-quarter earnings season picks up pace with key banks

The haven-linked US Dollar was under selling pressure heading into the end of last week. This is as the S&P . . . → Read More: US Dollar Outlook: Election Polling, Economic Data, Q3 Earnings Season

Oil Fundamental Outlook: Bullish Crude oil prices could rise on Q3 earnings data and fiscal stimulus hopes But Brent may pull back if spike in Covid-19 cases means more lockdowns Volatility from Brexit may echo across markets and undermine risk appetite Advertisement Corporate Earnings Cascade

Third-quarter earnings will be sweeping markets this week, . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Torn Between Earnings, Fiscal Stimulus Updates & Brexit Woes

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Neutral Traders in EUR/USD, and especially EUR/GBP, will need to keep a close eye this week on the two-day European Council meeting that starts Thursday in Brussels. If the EU leaders attending are optimistic on the EU-UK relationship after Brexit, that should weaken EUR/GBP and potentially weaken EUR/USD too. Advertisement Euro . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Outlook Murky Ahead of Crucial EU Summit

EU/UK Trade Talks and GBP/USD Price, Analysis and Chart: European Council Meeting on October 15-16 is key. Both sides are making positive noises but remain far apart. Advertisement

The EU and UK trade negotiating teams will be hard at work next week trying to iron out the many differences that they currently have . . . → Read More: Sterling (GBP) Weekly Outlook: EU/UK Trade Talks – It's Time to Decide

Gold Fundamental Forecast: Neutral Fading fiscal stimulus hopes may weigh on gold prices in the near-term. However, the rising likelihood of a Joe Biden presidency could underpin the liquidity-driven precious metal ahead of the US Presidential Elections in November.

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Get Your Free Gold Forecast . . . → Read More: Gold Price Outlook Dictated By Presidential Polls, Fiscal Aid Hopes

Canadian Dollar Price Forecast, CAD, USD/CAD Talking Points: USD/CAD pushed down to a fresh three-week-low this morning. Canadian employment numbers came out strong, beating expectations on both the headline print and the unemployment rate. The analysis contained in article relies on price action and chart formations. To learn more about price action or chart . . . → Read More: USD/CAD Price Forecast: Dollar-Cad Crushed, Finds Fibonacci Support

Crude Oil Analysis, Price and Charts Oil supported by Norwegian strike, Gulf of Mexico disruptions. Hopes of US stimulus bill boost demand. Advertisement

Brent crude has rallied the best part of 10% this week, driven by favourable supply and demand tailwinds. On the supply side, an extended strike by Norwegian oil workers has . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Trims Recent Gains as Market Flashes Overbought Warning

USD/ZAR Analysis: USD/ZAR breaks below 16.5000. ZAR on track to set third day of gains vs USD Short term Bearish flag may support recent ZAR strength Local and global developments likely to add uncertainty surrounding EM currencies US elections and renewed optimism regarding the stimulus bill prop up risk events Advertisement ZAR Strength Continues . . . → Read More: SA Rand Price Forecast: Bear Flag Hints at Continued ZAR Strength

EUR/GBP Price, News and Analysis: Will the EU and UK decide that a deal can be reached? EUR/GBP trapped in a narrowing range. Advertisement Crucial European Council Meeting Next Week

Trade negotiations between the EU and UK are set to dominate the headlines next week ahead of the two-day European Council meeting starting . . . → Read More: EUR/GBP Testing Resistance Ahead of Pivotal EU Council Meeting

USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD Analysis & News USD/CAD Biased Lower, 50DMA Gives Way GBP/USD Trading in Ranges as Volatility Persists EUR/USD Price Action Muted Advertisement

No news is evidently good news across markets with the path of least resistance being higher in the equity space. That said, amid a lack of key catalysts, . . . → Read More: US Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD, GBP/USD, EUR/USD Levels to Watch

USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, Bank of Canada, Negative Interest Rates – Talking Points: The haven-associated USD and JPY drifted lower during the Asian trading session on the back of fiscal stimulus hopes. The Canadian Dollar looks poised to outperform its major counterparts as the BoC talks down negative rates. USD/CAD eyeing a push to fresh monthly-lows . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar to Outperform as BoC Dismisses Negative Rates

GBP/USD Price Analysis & News UK GDP Misses Expectations, GBP Muted Brexit Remains the Dominant Driver for GBP Advertisement UK GDP Misses Expectations, GBP Muted

UK GDP for August grew 2.1%, notching a fourth consecutive monthly increase, however, the figure was notably below expectations of 4.6%. Additionally, while UK growth is now 21.7% . . . → Read More: GBP/USD Muted Following UK GDP, Brexit Latest Remains Dominant Driver

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS: Crude oil prices may rise amid a cautious improvement in risk appetite Gold prices find support as fiscal stimulus hopes cool US Dollar buying Progress on US fiscal stimulus likely a prerequisite for lasting gains Advertisement

Improving risk appetite across global financial markets pulled sentiment-linked crude oil . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Prices May Be Capped By US Stimulus Uncertainty

Gold Price Talking Points

The price of gold pares the decline from earlier this week on the back of US Dollar weakness, but the advance from the September low ($1849) may give way to range bound conditions as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to track the downward trend carried over from August.

. . . → Read More: Gold Price Bounces Back as Fed Prepares Outcome-Based Forward Guidance

USD/CAD & CAD/JPY Price Outlook: Advertisement Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Tests Support, CAD/JPY Extends Rally

The Canadian Dollar has begun reversing some of its September losses as risk appetite returns to the market. In the case of USD/CAD, recent USD weakness has seen the pair fall to support around the 1.3200 mark – . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Tests Support, CAD/JPY Extends Rally

US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD Talking Points: Despite a bullish run in equities this week and some very provocative headlines and themes – the US Dollar has been fairly quiet, all factors considered. While EUR/USD bearish scenarios previously looked attractive for USD-strength themes, there may be a shift in the opposite direction as the pair . . . → Read More: US Dollar Digestion: EUR/USD, GBP/USD Price Action Setups

Negative Interest Rates – Can They Stimulate The Economy?

What are Negative Interest Rates?

Negative interest rates mean that any money deposited with a bank incurs a charge, or cost, for the lender. When rates are positive, the lender receives interest on their money from the bank, when rates are negative, the . . . → Read More: Negative Interest Rates – Can They Stimulate The Economy?

Euro Dollar Outlook:

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EUR/USD conflicted ahead of ECB

With less than a month before the US presidential elections, hopes of additional US stimulus remain dismal, even though discussions of a standalone airline bill are appearing to . . . → Read More: Euro Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Rangebound Ahead of ECB Policy Meeting Accounts

Gold Price Outlook: Gold fell alongside stocks and other risk assets on Tuesday following President Trump’s Tweet The move saw XAU/USD back off technical resistance around the $1,921 mark Now in the midst of its broader technical pattern, gold could trade sideways as it searches for catalysts Gold Price Forecast: Precious Metal Backs off . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: Precious Metal Backs off Resistance, Pauses Break Out

USD PRICE OUTLOOK: US DOLLAR UNDER PRESSURE DESPITE OMINOUS REMARKS FOUND IN SEPTEMBER FOMC MINUTES USD price action has faced a fresh wave of selling pressure during Wednesday’s trading session The DXY Index could try to turn higher in the wake of September FOMC minutes just released US Dollar outlook remains constructive following portentous . . . → Read More: US Dollar Defends Session Lows Following September FOMC Minutes

CRUDE OIL FORECAST: OIL PRICE VOLATILITY AMID SWINGS IN MARKET SENTIMENT CONTAINED BY KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS Crude oil price action has recently fluctuated back and forth within a 10% trading range Oil prices might revert back lower following a sharp rally that puttered out near the 50-DMA Market volatility and trader risk appetite stands . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Technical Outlook: Oil Price Struggling Below 50-DMA

USD/JPY Analysis: President Trump returns to the White House and advises negotiators to walk away from stimulus talks until after the US presidential election USD/JPY surges but faces near term challenges for a continued bullish move IG Client Sentiment reveals a mixed trading environment even though sentiment tipped slightly to the short side for . . . → Read More: USD/JPY Analysis: USDJPY Surges, Postponement of US Stimulus Talks

S&P 500 PRICE OUTLOOK: STOCKS SLIDE SHARPLY AFTER TRUMP PUTS AN END TO FISCAL STIMULUS NEGOTIATIONS UNTIL AFTER ELECTION US President Trump just stopped coronavirus stimulus negotiations until after the election S&P 500 price action plunged about 1.5% from intraday highs as stocks nosedive in response The Nasdaq and Dow Jones are falling fast . . . → Read More: S&P 500, Nasdaq Plunge as Trump Collapses Stimulus Talks

Dow Jones Price Outlook: Data from the last ten Presidential elections reveals the Dow Jones Industrial Average typically climbs around an election Still, it is difficult to attribute any equity strength to an election singlehandedly as an infinite number of themes are at play in the market at any given time Dow Jones: A . . . → Read More: How Will the Election Affect the Stock Market? Dow Jones Forecast

Talking points:

The Financial Conduct Authority banned today cryptocurrency derivatives for retail traders Bitcoin remains a priority for regulators as BitMEX is charged by the CFTC and DOJ Advertisement

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)banned today the sale of cryptocurrency derivatives to retail consumers in the United Kingdom following the proposal put forward . . . → Read More: UK Regulator Bans Cryptocurrency Derivatives for Retail Traders, Bitcoin Shrugs off the News

USD/ZAR ANALYSIS Global risk sentiment weighs heavily on USD/ZAR USD/ZAR has been so far respectful of 16.5000 support zone Multiple US and South African factors weighing on USD/ZAR pair Advertisement

Visit the DailyFX Educational Center to discover why news events are Key to Forex Fundamental Analysis

USD/ZAR this week has proved to . . . → Read More: South African Rand Price Forecast: Uncertainty Looms Over USD/ZAR

U.S. Dollar in Election Year Dollar has demonstrated fairly consistent path since 1980 But 2020 is proving anything but a typical U.S. election year Positioning heading into the election is the focus

The U.S. Dollar often follows an interesting sequence in historical election years. Yet the question with this cycle is with so . . . → Read More: US Dollar (USD) Presidential Election Performance May Prove Anything but Typical

US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: USD PRICE ACTION RIPE FOR VOLATILITY AMID FOMC COMMENTARY, STIMULUS NEGOTIATIONS, & UPDATES ON TRUMP’S HEALTH The US Dollar drops to start the week owing to a recovery in market sentiment DXY Index has potential to rebound higher if US Dollar bulls can defend the 50-DMA USD looks primed for more . . . → Read More: USD Price Outlook: US Dollar Eyes Fed Speak, Stimulus, & Trump

US Dollar, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, COT Report –Analysis US Dollar Short Squeeze Underway GBP/USD Flips to Net Short AUD/USD Longs Halved, Remaining Longs Vulnerable to Dovish RBA Surprise Advertisement

The Predictive Power of the COT Report

How to Read the CFTC Report

Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to September 29th, released . . . → Read More: US Dollar Correction, GBP/USD Flips to Short, AUD/USD Longs Halved – COT Report

Brexit News and GBP/USD Price, Analysis and Chart: Brexit talks continue ahead of crucial European Council meeting. GBP/USD holds onto 1.2900 as markets remain positive on a Brexit outcome. Advertisement

UK PM Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke over the weekend in an effort to push trade negotiations . . . → Read More: British Pound (GBP) Outlook – Brexit Newsflow Continues to Dominate Sterling

EUR/USD, European Central Bank, Euro-zone Inflation, Covid-19 Second Wave – Talking Points: Equity markets moved broadly higher during the Asian trading session as investors’ mulled President Donald Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis. Subdued inflation could sway the ECB to act in the near-term, after Lagarde hints at AIT. EUR/USD rates validating bearish reversal pattern. Could price . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Rates Susceptible to Second Wave of Covid-19, Subdued Inflation

For the most part, global sentiment ended on an upbeat despite US President Donald Trump contracting the coronavirus. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed over the past 5 trading sessions. The ‘risk-on’ tone greatly benefited the sentiment-linked Australian Dollar at the expense of the haven-oriented US Dollar as anti-fiat gold . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, Gold, Oil, USD, Trump’s Infection, Stimulus?

Dow Jones, DAX 30, Nikkei 225 Forecasts: Bearish The Dow Jones closed higher for the week, suffering minimal losses on Friday compared to the Nasdaq The DAX 30 will juggle an economic recovery and an uptick in coronavirus cases in Europe The Nikkei 225 may remain a laggard compared to its western counterparts

. . . → Read More: Dow Jones, DAX 30, Nikkei 225 Fourth Quarter Forecasts

Japanese Yen Fundamental Forecast: Bullish The anti-risk Japanese Yen fell as the S&P 500 rose last week JPY may rise on diminishing US fiscal stimulus expectations No-deal Brexit woes still persist, what else to watch into Q4?

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What is the road ahead for JPY . . . → Read More: Japanese Yen Outlook: JPY May Rise as S&P 500 Falls on Stimulus Woes

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Mixed The bounce in EUR/USD last week looks to have run its course and a resumption of its previous slide lower is now possible. Longerterm, however, the pair is well placed to benefit from any US Dollar weakness as the US elections in November approach. Advertisement EUR/USD price decline likely in . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Outlook Bearish Near Term, Bullish Long Term

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Bullish USD Talking Points: US President Donald Trump reportedly tested positive for Covid-19 Friday morning, leading to even greater uncertainty in the late stages of the election The September NFPs this past week reminded investors of the convergence between the pandemic, economic health and polls Looking out through the end . . . → Read More: Dollar Forecast Hinges on Trump and Covid Headlines – For Next Week and Month

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD extends the rebound from the September low (0.7006) ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on October 6, and key developments coming out of Australia may influence the exchange rate as Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is scheduled to deliver the federal budget update after the interest rate . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Outlook Hinges on RBA Meeting, Australia Budget Update

GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast: Neutral EU-UK trade talks coming down to the wire. Sterling exposed to volatile moves.

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Sterling traders will need to buckle up next week as GBP-volatility . . . → Read More: British Pound (GBP) Outlook – Sterling Traders Should Prepare For a Volatile Week Ahead

The US Presidential election has a historical tendency to influence financial markets as a change in leadership often brings a shift in fiscal policy. For the price of gold, there has been greater responsiveness to the macroeconomic landscape change since President Richard Nixon took steps to end the Bretton-Woods system starting in 1971.

. . . → Read More: US Presidential Election Timeline and Implications for Gold Prices

S&P 500, Nasdaq Talking Points: News of President Trump’s positive Covid test provided a quick jolt of volatility last night. The immediate response was one of weakness and, to be sure, bearish context does remain around US equities, to a degree. But, so far, that quick jolt is lacking for follow-through, even after a . . . → Read More: S&P 500, Nasdaq Outlook: Stocks Stabilize After Trump Covid Sell-Off

US DOLLAR PERKS UP, GOLD PRICE STAYS POSITIVE, S&P 500 FUTURES UNDER PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO MONTHLY JOBS REPORT Nonfarm payrolls data for September 2020 missed the forecast of 859K job gains US Dollar, gold, and the S&P 500 changed little right after the employment report Fiscal stimulus negotiations and Trump catching the coronavirus . . . → Read More: US Dollar, Gold, S&P 500 React to September NFP Report Miss

USD/ZAR ANALYSIS Initial USD boost after Trump’s COVID announcement Rand holds steady before Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Rise in volatility expected going into US elections may affect ZAR appeal Advertisement

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This week has seen five continuous positive . . . → Read More: USD/ZAR: Rand Slips After President Trump Tests Positive for COVID-19

EUR/USD Price, News and Analysis: Inflation falls further in the Euro Area and that’s a problem for the ECB US Labor Report may shift EUR/USD sentiment. Advertisement

Euro area inflation remains stubbornly low, according to the initial September data. Annual inflation turned further negative to -0.3% compared to -0.2% in August, while core . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Price Remains Under Pressure After Lowly Inflation Data; US NFP Next Important Release

GBP/USD Price Analysis & News GBP/USD Jumps on Report That Johnson and Von Der Leyen Will Meet Tomorrow Make or Break Moment to Reach a Compromise Advertisement UK PM Johnson and EU’s Von Der Leyen to Break Brexit Deadlock

GBP/USD bounced in reaction to reports that UK PM Johnson and EU President Von . . . → Read More: British Pound Latest (GBP) – Boris Johnson & Von Der Leyen to Meet, Make or Break for Brexit?

US Dollar, S&P 500, President Donald Trump, Covid-19 – Talking Points: Equity markets tumbled during APAC trade as news that President Trump had tested positive for Covid-19 sapped market sentiment. The US Dollar Index’s rebound could be at risk despite adverse shift in market sentiment. S&P 500 index may extend its fall from the . . . → Read More: USD Surges, S&P 500 Futures Sink as President Trump Tests Positive For Covid-19

Gold Price Outlook: Gold fell more than -4% in September, even as volatility sparked demand for safe haven assets More recently, however, XAU/USD has recovered and nears technical resistance as a result Will gold continue its recent recovery or will bears return near resistance and drive price lower? Advertisement Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Climbs . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Climbs to Resistance, Will it Rally?

Japanese Yen Forecast Overview:

Amid global equities climbing higher, the Japanese Yen has seen demand fade, particularly after a bout of disappointing Japanese economic data. None of EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, or USD/JPY have advanced into bullish breakout territory yet; but all three pairs are seen significant momentum shifts and are on the verge of . . . → Read More: Japanese Yen Forecast: Turning the Corner in EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, & USD/JPY Rates?

Copper, Silver Talking Points: It’s been a rude start to Q4 for Copper prices. Silver prices have struggled to set support over the past week, but today’s move is encouraging for Silver bulls and there may be scope for topside continuation. The analysis contained in article relies on price action and chart formations. To . . . → Read More: Copper Crushed as Silver Struggles to Set Support

US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: USD EDGES HIGHER FOLLOWING KEY DATA, BREXIT LATEST US Dollar catches bid to turn positive on the day with the help of overall solid economic data The DXY Index could attempt to pivot higher from here after bouncing off technical support GBP/USD price action pivoted sharply lower owing in large part . . . → Read More: US Dollar Bounces Off Support Amid Key Economic Data Releases

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 October Price Outlook: Advertisement Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Forecast for the Month Ahead

An expectedly volatile September saw the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 fall from their August levels as volatility surged and election uncertainty grew. That said, September is historically a bearish . . . → Read More: Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Forecast for the Month Ahead

US Dollar, EUR/USD, AUD/USD Talking Points: Today marks the Q3 close and the next two days bring a busy economic calendar. USD strength has shown in September but that’s been a change-of-pace to the bigger-picture trend of weakness. Which will take over in Q4? The analysis contained in article relies on price action and . . . → Read More: US Dollar: Ready to Rumble with High-Impact Data – EURUSD, AUDUSD

Trade Wars, US-China Relationship, EU-US Trade Relations Talking Points:

US-led trade wars with China and the EU likely to continue under Trump administration Multi-layered geopolitical issues not pertaining to trade may spill into trade discussions Biden administration may ease tensions with EU but less incentive to relieve China pressure Donald Trump Becomes . . . → Read More: Will Trade Wars Persist After the US Election?

USD/ZAR Analysis: SA’s official Q2 unemployment rate at 23.3%, down from 30.1% in Q1 The unemployment calculation has been positively influenced by the lockdown as many despondent job seekers have been omitted from the calculation USD/ZAR had been trading lower after the announcement. Full analysis below SA’s Unemployment Rate Declines to 23.3%

After . . . → Read More: Rand Report: Why “Lower” Unemployment May Hurt the Rand, USD/ZAR

EUR/USD Price, News and Analysis: Euro Area inflation remains subdued, prompting concern at the ECB. EUR/USD may struggle to push higher despite bullish client sentiment.

Inflation in the Euro Area remains subdued and may prompt further action from the ECB in the coming months. Friday’s monthly and annual Euro Area inflation prints (September) . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Price Remains Under Pressure on Lowly Inflation Expectations