EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD registers a three-day rally as it extends the advance following the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, and the exchange rate may attempt to test the September high (1.0198) as it clears the October high (1.0094).

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Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, China, CPI, PPI, Covid-19, Hang Seng – Talking Points The Australian Dollar drifted sideways after Chinese CPI and PPI data AUD/USD could be at the whim of broader sentiment on China re-opening Soft price pressures might change Chinese policy. Will this move AUD/USD?

Recommended by Daniel McCarthy . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Steady, Yuan Wobbles as Chinese Inflation Cools. Lower AUD/USD?

Euro, EUR/USD, US Dollar, Mid-term, Crude Oil, Gold, RBNZ, Orr – Talking Points Euro support is intact for now, but the US Dollar could resume strengthening The mid-terms might trigger volatility across markets, but US CPI will also be a focus If the US Dollar reclaims its ascendency, will EUR/USD resume its downtrend? . . . → Read More: Euro Holds High Ground as US Dollar Sidelined Ahead of Mid-Terms. Higher EUR/USD?

S&P 500, VIX, Dollar, EURUSD and USDCNH Talking Points: The Market Perspective: USDJPY Bearish Below 146; EURUSD Bullish Above 1.0000; Gold Bearish Below 1,680 A disparity between realized and expected volatility persists with seasonal expectations confronting very real systemic problems on the horizon – creating a very uneven backdrop Scheduled event risk over the . . . → Read More: Dollar Collapse Paused and S&P 500 Unsure as Extreme Volatility Confronts CPI Wait

Copper, China, Covid, Rates, COT, Technical Outlook – Talking Points Copper prices are slightly lower in Asia-Pacific trade but last week’s gain holds China’s Covid-19 policy is critical to industrial metals as rate forecasts moderate Symmetrical Triangle breakout may resume after prices test former resistance

Trade Smarter – . . . → Read More: Copper Prices May Resume Triangle Breakout as Speculators Ease Short Bets

GOLD, XAU/USD, US DOLLAR, FED, REAL YIELDS – Talking Points Gold has found higher ground as the US Dollar slips across the board At the same time, US real yields have been holding the high ground If US CPI surprises, gold could get caught in the vortex. Will XAU/USD rally?

. . . → Read More: Gold Price Steadies on US Dollar Weakness Ahead of US CPI. Where to for XAU/USD?

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD is on the cusp of testing the monthly high (0.6492) as it preserves the advance following the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, and the exchange rate may stage another run at the October high (0.6547) if it clears the opening range for November.

Advertisement AUD/USD to Stage Another . . . → Read More: AUD/USD to Stage Another Run at October High on Break Above Monthly Opening Range

Crude Oil, WTI, Brent, US Dollar, Fed, Hang Seng, AUD, NZD, Gold – Talking Points Crude oil has been caught in the crosswinds of global growth prospects The Chinese government denied any easing of any Covid-19 related restrictions APAC equities were unfazed by the denials, but USD resumed an upswing

. . . → Read More: Crude Oil Eases as Markets Ponder a Possible Chinese Reopening. Will WTI Rally?

Euro, EUR/USD, US Dollar, China, US CPI, Federal Reserve – Talking points EUR/USD has retreated from a surge based on US Dollar weakness The China story continues to weigh heavily on the market outlook for growth If US CPI is a shocker on Thursday, where will it send EUR/USD?

Recommended . . . → Read More: Euro Ran Higher on China Re-opening Rumours But Turns on Denial. Where to for EUR/USD?

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, China Trade Balance, Earnings, Technical Outlook – Talking Points Asia-Pacific markets aim to extend last week’s rally after US stocks surged on Friday China’s October trade data is on tap as a potential policy pivot underpins sentiment AUD/USD eyes 50-day SMA after prices breakout from a Cup and Handle pattern . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Forecast: China Trade Balance in Focus After Iron Ore Prices Rebound

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US stock indexes surged on Friday after the US non-farm payrolls report for October muddied market-based Fed rate hike bets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trimmed its weekly loss to 1.4% after rising 1.26% on Friday. The US Dollar DXY Index plummeted nearly 2% after rate traders shaved seven basis points . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, US Dollar, NZD/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, Gold, CPI, China Credit, UK GDP

S&P 500 AND NASDAQ 100 OUTLOOK: SLIGHTLY BEARISH The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 finished the week lower after the Federal Reserve indicated that its terminal rate will be higher than previously expected Inflation will be the most important price action catalyst next week For market sentiment to improve, CPI data must show . . . → Read More: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Week Ahead Forecast: Inflation Could Make or Break the Market

Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: Slightly Bullish USD/JPY outlook biased to the downside after Descending Triangle takes shape CHF/JPY pierced below a key trendline, putting a possible trend reversal on the cards AUD/JPY rises after triggering a buy signal by slipping below a regression channel Advertisement USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Neutral

USD/JPY recorded a drop . . . → Read More: Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY, CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY Charts to Watch

EUR/USD ANALYSIS TALKING POINTS Eurozone fundamentals paint a mixed picture but not enough to deter a rampant USD just yet. Inflation in focus next week. Technical analysis echoes fundamental uncertainty. EURO FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: WATCHFUL

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. . . → Read More: Euro Weekly Forecast: EUR/USD Faces Inflation Packed Week

Gold Price Talking Points

The price of gold tests the 50-Day SMA ($1674) as it retraces the decline following the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and the update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) may prop up the precious metal as the report is anticipated to show easing price pressures.

Fundamental Forecast . . . → Read More: Gold Price Defends Yearly Low with US CPI on Tap

S&P 500, FOMC, BOE, GBPUSD, NFPs and USDCAD Talking Points: The Market Perspective: USDJPY Bearish Below 146; EURUSD Bullish Above 1.0000; Gold Bearish Below 1,680 The Fed’s rhetoric following its fourth 75bp rate hike this past week continued to fan the flames of speculative uncertainty and Dollar buoyancy Conspicuously, the DXY suffered its worst . . . → Read More: US Dollar’s Suffers Biggest Drop 7 Years, Is That the Start of Something?

Japanese Yen Fundamental Forecast: Neutral Japanese Yen gained ground as the US Dollar fell last week Markets still eyeing 3 Fed rate hikes in 2023, a risk for JPY USD/JPY eyeing the next US CPI report, will it miss estimates?

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Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish The Australian Dollar tumbled lower last week on relative rate changes The latest hike by the RBA paled in comparison with the Fed and BoE The RBA’s approach to CPI might be challenged if China reopens

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GBP/USD – Prices, Charts, and Analysis Central bank commentary roils cable. The latest GDP update aside, the UK economic calendar is thin next week.

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The Bank of England (BoE) this week warned that the . . . → Read More: British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD Battling Back After a Week of Heavy Losses

US Dollar Talking Points: The US Dollar is re-testing a key spot of support following a pullback after the release of NFP, and that wiped out gains following the FOMC-fueled rally. Next week sees the focus shift back to inflation with the release of CPI on Thursday morning as the highlight of next week’s . . . → Read More: USD Snaps Back on NFP After Fed-Fueled Rally: EUR/USD, GBP/USD

OCTOBER JOBS REPORT KEY POINTS: The U.S. economy added 261,000 jobs in October compared to a forecast of 200,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up to 3.7%, one-tenth of a percent above expectations Average hourly earnings climbed 0.4% on a monthly basis and 4.7% year-over-year. Analysts polled by Bloomberg News were looking for a . . . → Read More: October Jobs Report: Economy Adds 261,000 Payrolls. Where Next for the US Dollar?

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Gold, XAU/USD, US Dollar, Non-Farm Payrolls, Technical Analysis – Briefing: Gold prices await Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report A rosier outcome may boost the US Dollar, sink XAU/USD Retail traders boost upside gold bets, hinting more pain

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Get . . . → Read More: Gold Prices Await Non-Farm Payrolls Data, Will the US Dollar Rally?

S&P 500, FOMC, BOE, GBPUSD, NFPs and USDCAD Talking Points: The Market Perspective: USDJPY Bearish Below 146; EURUSD Bullish Above 1.0000; Gold Bearish Below 1,680 The FOMC’s rejection of a quick halt to its hawkish path has carried over to Thursday trade with a continued slide from the S&P 500 and a greater contrast . . . → Read More: S&P 500 and GBPUSD Slide in FOMC Aftermath, How Will NFPs Steer Markets?

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD slips to a fresh weekly low (0.9730) as it remains under pressure following the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may fuel the recent weakness in the exchange rate as the update is anticipated to show a further improvement in the labor . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Rate Susceptible to Strong US NFP Report

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, RBA, Jobs Report, Technical Outlook – Talking Points A stronger US Dollar and higher bond yields may weigh on APAC markets Focus turns to the upcoming US jobs report after a hawkish FOMC meeting AUD/USD aims to break below a short-term trendline as losses accelerate Advertisement Friday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

A . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Aims Lower on Rising Recession Bets as US Dollar, Yields Rise

Canadian Dollar Talking Points

USD/CAD trades to a fresh weekly high (1.3808) as it extends the advance following the Federal Reserve rate decision, and the exchange rate may attempt to retrace the decline from the yearly high (1.3978) as it reverses ahead of the 50-Day SMA (1.3248).

Advertisement USD/CAD Reverses Ahead of 50-Day . . . → Read More: USD/CAD Reverses Ahead of 50-Day SMA to Eye Yearly High

S&P 500, FOMC, Dollar, GBPUSD and USDJPY Talking Points: The Market Perspective: USDJPY Bearish Below 146; EURUSD Bullish Above 1.0000; Gold Bearish Below 1,680 The closely watched FOMC rate decision this past session offered yet another hefty 75bp rate hike while the policy statement seemed to offer dovish succor…until Powell reinforced the hawks A . . . → Read More: S&P 500 and USDJPY: Where To After the Fed’s Hawkish Whiplash?

Gold, XAU/USD, FOMC, Speculators, Jobs Report, Technical Outlook – Talking Points Gold prices move slightly higher in APAC trading as the US jobs report nears Speculators trimmed their bullish gold bets ahead of the FOMC decision XAU/USD sees a possible trend reversal chance on Double Bottom pattern

Gold prices are moderating after falling nearly . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: US Jobs Report in Focus as Traders Digest FOMC

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD struggles to hold its ground following the kneejerk reaction to the Federal Reserve rate decision, and the exchange rate may track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6539) following the failed attempts to test the October high (0.6547).

Advertisement AUD/USD to Track 50-Day SMA amid Failure to . . . → Read More: AUD/USD to Track 50-Day SMA amid Failure to Test October High

Chinese Yuan, USD/CNH, Caixin PMI, AU Trade Balance, PBOC, Technical Forecast – Talking Points Asia-Pacific markets are facing a mixed open as a stronger US Dollar weighs on sentiment The Chinese Yuan is falling into fresh 2022 lows against the USD. Will the PBOC respond? USD/CNH looks primed for a breakout amid few . . . → Read More: Chinese Yuan Outlook: USD/CNH Test PBOC’s Patience as US Dollar Rises Post-FOMC

Crude Oil Price Talking Points

The price of oil climbs to a fresh weekly high ($90.36) following an unexpected decline in US inventories, and crude may attempt to retrace the decline from the October high ($93.48) as it seems to be no longer responding to the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA ($86.44).

. . . → Read More: Oil Price Holds Above 50-Day SMA to Eye October High

S&P 500, FOMC, Dollar, EURUSD and USDJPY Talking Points: The Market Perspective: USDJPY Bearish Below 146; EURUSD Bullish Above 1.0000; Gold Bearish Below 1,680 The FOMC rate decision is this week’s top scheduled event risk and it is arguably the most important Fed meeting since the first 75bp hike Whether the Fed starts to . . . → Read More: FOMC Strategy Amid a Strong S&P 500 Rebound and Buoyant Dollar

New Zealand Dollar, NZD/USD, Q3 Employment, China, Technical Forecast – Talking Points Asia-Pacific markets face mixed open on muted USD as traders prep for FOMC New Zealand Q3 employment beats estimates, underpinning RBNZ rate hike bets NZD/USD trades just below the 50-day SMA within a Cup and Handle pattern Wednesday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

Asia-Pacific . . . → Read More: New Zealand Dollar May Rise Against USD and AUD After NZ Job Numbers Impress

STOCK MARKET KEY POINTS: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 decline for the second day in a row amid rising U.S. Treasury rates Yields move higher on better-than-expected U.S. economic data All eyes are now on the FOMC policy decision Wednesday afternoon

Trade Smarter – Sign up for . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Extends Losses as Yields Charge Higher ahead of key Fed Decision. Now What?

EURUSD, FOMC – Talking Points EURUSD pushes lower following strong US PMI report Traders eye 75 bps FOMC rate hike and Fed guidance Heavy economic calendar may put stress on EURUSD bulls

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The EURUSD . . . → Read More: EURUSD Slips Away From Parity as FOMC Looms

Central Bank Watch Overview: Fed policymakers spoke in very hawkish tones throughout September and October, although a few FOMC members began to soften their tone ahead of the communications blackout period. It may be the case that additional rate hikes are coming before the end of 2022, but the Fed may slowdown its pace . . . → Read More: Central Bank Watch: Fed Speeches, Interest Rate Expectations Update; November Fed Meeting Preview

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, RBA, CPI, PPI, ASX 200, Fed, BoE – Talking Points The RBA hiked by 0.25% for the second month in a row to 2.85% AUD/USD dropped on the news as there had been faint hopes for a 0.50% lift The RBA appear comfortable with smaller hikes, despite awkward CPI

. . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Dips After RBA Hike by 0.25% as Expected. Where to for AUD/USD?

Dow, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, FOMC, AUDUSD and EURUSD Talking Points: The Market Perspective: USDJPY Bearish Below 146; EURUSD Bullish Above 1.0000; Gold Bearish Below 1,680 October has come to a close and the Dow Jones Industrial Average may represent the broader market’s winner for the month with a nearly 14 percent rally – . . . → Read More: Dow Closes Out Its Best Month Since 1976 But Fed Anticipation Will Throttle

WTI Crude Oil, US Production, China, Covid, EIA, Inventory, Technical Analysis – Talking Points Crude oil prices face mounting macroeconomic headwinds after prices rise in October US inventory data, the FOMC rate decision and the US jobs report to set oil direction WTI prices look set for a potential spike in volatility as prices . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Forecast: China Covid Woes Weigh on Prices as Traders Eye Inventory Data

Gold Price Talking Points

The price of gold carves a series of lower highs and lows despite the kneejerk reaction to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, and bullion appears to be on track the test the monthly low ($1617) as it reverses ahead of the 50-Day SMA ($1680).

Advertisement Gold . . . → Read More: Gold Price Falls Towards Monthly Low After Failing to Test 50-Day SMA

Chinese Yuan, USD/CNH, RBA, Covid, Commodities, Technical Outlook – Talking Points Asia-Pacific markets face headwinds from a stronger Dollar after US traders ditch equities RBA rate decision in focus for APAC markets as China lockdowns weigh on sentiment USD/CNH surged nearly 1% as RSI divergence puts the broader uptrend in potential danger Advertisement Tuesday’s . . . → Read More: Chinese Yuan Slides Against US Dollar as Covid Lockdowns Weigh on Sentiment

Japanese Yen, USD/JPY, US Dollar, USD/CNY, CNY/JPY, Yuan – Talking Points USD/JPY is looking to higher levels despite mixed economic data Yen weakening might have broader ramifications for the region What’s good for the Yen might be good for the Yuan

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Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, Retail Sales, China PMI, Iron Ore, Technical Outlook – Talking Points Asia-Pacific markets look to trade higher on Monday as yields fall China’s manufacturing PMI data for October may dictate sentiment AUD/USD may target the 50-day SMA if Fib support holds steady Advertisement Monday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

Asia-Pacific stocks outside of . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Eyes Australian Retail Sales and China PMI Data as Iron Ore Prices Pose Headwind

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Risk appetite notably improved this past week on Wall Street. Dow Jones futures lead the charge, surging 5.89% to the highest since late August. Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 2.62% and 3.32%, . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, US Dollar, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, Fed, RBA, BoE

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Forecasts and Analysis

Meta and Amazon both slump 20%+ after releasing Q3 figures. Uber, Airbnb, and Coinbase are all on the Q3 docket next week.

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US equity markets . . . → Read More: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones – Mega-Cap Tech Hammerings Rattle Sentiment

USD/CAD ANLAYSIS

Will we see further central bank divergence come FOMC? Resilient CAD may be breaking down against USD. Falling wedge in focus next week.

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USD/CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH

The Canadian dollar has been under pressure . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Weekly Forecast: USD/CAD Keenly Awaits FOMC After BoC Shock

Euro Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD snaps the recent series of higher highs and lows following the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, and the exchange rate may struggle to retain the advance from the monthly low (0.9632) as the Federal Reserve is expected to implement another 75bp rate hike.

Recommended by . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Rate Outlook Hinges on Fed Rate Decision

GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK: SLIGHTLY BULLISH

Gold prices declined this week, but the Fed could spark a bullish reversal soon The FOMC is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its November meeting, but it could adopt a less hawkish stance in terms of future hiking The U.S. central bank tightening bias . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Directional Bias Tied to Fed Monetary Policy Posture

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Neutral US Dollar weakens as S&P 500 gains, Fed hawkishness bets taper Eyes are on another jumbo 75-basis point rate hike on Wednesday That will be followed by Friday’s non-farm payrolls likely cooling

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Get . . . → Read More: US Dollar Forecast: Another Fed Jumbo Hike in Focus as Markets Bet on Policy Moderation

Bitcoin Outlook: Neutral Bitcoin bullish momentum drives BTC/USD higher while Dollar strength subsides Ethereum posts double-digit gains – earning season and economic data provide mixed reactions Dogecoin skyrockets around 39% after Elon Musk completes Twitter deal

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FX Week Ahead Overview: The first week of November is all about central banks: the Reserve Bank of Australia will release its rate decision on Tuesday; the Federal Reserve on Wednesday; and the Bank of England on Thursday. While still important, the October US jobs report may see a muted impact in the wake . . . → Read More: FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: BOE, Fed, RBA, Rate Decisions; Canada Jobs Report; US NFP

Gold and Silver Technical Forecast: Gold prices are eyeing a breakout from a Double Bottom pattern as RSI flashes bullish signal Silver prices fell after resistance from the 100-day SMA capped gains, while RSI fell below 50 Advertisement Gold Technical Outlook: Bullish

Gold prices were on track to record modest gains on the . . . → Read More: Gold and Silver Technical Forecasts: Gold Eyes Trend Reversal as Silver Momentum Stalls. Where to for XAU, XAG?

Pound Sterling Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Bearish

UK government considers tax hikes and increasing windfall tax ahead of fiscal statement on November 17th Bank of England and FOMC gear up for 75 basis point hikes next week Major risk events ahead: US ISM PMI, BoE and FOMC rate hikes, US NFP

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Dax 40, FTSE 100 Key Points: German inflation skyrockets but Dax resilience holds FTSE 100 humbled by weekly high European equities face challenging times as critical resistance firms

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European equities continue to whipsaw into . . . → Read More: DAX, FTSE Boom Faces Resistance After Strong Week of Gains

US Equities Outlook: The rapid rise in US Treasury yields has coincided with a steep decline by the major US stock markets. Rising interest rates reduce the net-present value of future cash flows, per the traditional discounted cash flow model. Companies with high debt burdens and low (or no) profitability tend to suffer most . . . → Read More: Why Do Stocks Suffer When Interest Rates Rise?

US PCE REPORT KEY POINTS: September U.S. consumer spending advances 0.6% on a monthly basis, versus 0.4% expected Core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, climbs 0.5% month-over-month, pushing the annual rate to 5.1% from 5.0%, one-tenth of a percent below market estimates The U.S. dollar retains session’s gains, but its reaction to the . . . → Read More: US Dollar Retains Gains Despite Softer-than-Expected Core PCE Inflation

US Dollar, DXY Index, ECB, Fed, Crude Oil, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY – Talking Points The US Dollar defied rumours of its demise today after a solid bounce back The ECB rate hike and a ‘meeting by meeting’ approach undermined EUR/USD Treasury yields continued their slide. Will that undermine the DXY Index?

. . . → Read More: US Dollar Strikes Back as the ECB Takes a Dovish Tilt. Will the DXY index recover?

Japanese Yen, USD/JPY, Bank of Japan, Kuroda, PCE, Technical Analysis – Market Update Japanese Yen marks time on still dovish Bank of Japan Intervention remains a volatile threat to USD/JPY ahead Eyes on Kuroda and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge

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Nasdaq 100, Dow, Dollar, Recession, FOMC and EURUSD Talking Points: The Market Perspective: USDJPY Bearish Below 146; EURUSD Bullish Above 1.0000; Gold Bearish Below 1,680 The significant hit to FAANG earnings this week proved a top macroeconomic weight for those tracking broader risk trends, but priorities are likely to shift ahead Top marks for . . . → Read More: Nasdaq and Dow Ratio Highlight FAANG Collapse, Fed and Recession Top Themes Next Week

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD falls back from a fresh monthly high (1.0094) even as the European Central Bank (ECB) implements another 75bp rate hike, and fresh data prints coming out of the US may fuel the recent decline in the exchange rate as the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is anticipated . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Rate Vulnerable to Another Rise in US PCE

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, Iron Ore, Earnings, Sentiment, BoJ – Talking Points Asia-Pacific markets look set for a mixed session as bond yields fall The Bank of Japan is expected to hold steady on ultra-loose policy A sharp drop in iron ore prices is weighing on the Australian Dollar Friday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

Asia-Pacific stocks . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Under Pressure on Sinking Iron Ore Prices as APAC Traders Eye Bank of Japan

US Dollar, DXY Index, ECB, Fed, Crude Oil, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY – Talking Points The US Dollar has been buried by hopes of a less hawkish Fed The ECB are all set to raise rates again as EUR/USD holds the high ground Treasury yields are lower. If the Fed doesn’t pivot, will the . . . → Read More: US Dollar Pummelled as ECB and Fed Rate Hikes Loom Amid Tech Frailties

Nasdaq 100, Dow, Dollar, USDJPY, GDP and EURUSD Talking Points: The Market Perspective: USDJPY Bearish Below 146; EURUSD Bullish Above 1.0000; Gold Bearish Below 1,680 Though Facebook would register just as disappointing an earnings result as Google, the two companies had a very different impact on the Nasdaq – but neither can compete with . . . → Read More: Nasdaq and Dollar Drop on Different Drivers, Prepare for a Lot More Event Risk Ahead

Crude Oil Forecast, WTI, EIA, US Exports, Economic Data – Talking Points A softer US Dollar aided commodity prices on Wednesday, including WTI and Brent oil US inventory data sent prices higher as export demand rose ahead of Russian fuel ban WTI takes aim at the October high after piercing above the 50-day . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Aims for October High as US Exports Surge Ahead of Russian Fuel Ban

Euro, EUR/USD, US Dollar, ECB, Fed, FOMC, BoC, Treasuries, LNG – Talking Points Euro is gassed up against a US Dollar that has been hit by policy pivot perceptions The ECB is anticipated to hike later today, as other central banks are in the frame If the northern winter is a mild one, . . . → Read More: Euro Shoots Higher as US Dollar Drops Ahead of ECB Rate Decision. Where to for EUR/USD?

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD trades back above the September low (0.6363) as it carves a series of higher highs and lows, and the exchange rate may attempt to test the 50-Day SMA (0.6593) if it clears the opening range for October.

Advertisement AUD/USD to Test 50-Day SMA on Break Above Monthly Opening . . . → Read More: AUD/USD to Test 50-Day SMA on Break Above Monthly Opening Range

Crude Oil, US Dollar, WTI, Brent, Hang Seng, USD/JPY, Gold – Talking Points Crude oil has held firm as supply and demand issues swirl APAC equities are in the green, but post-market US earnings are a drag If mild conditions persist across the EU and US, will WTI slump?

Recommended . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Holds Ground as Inventory Data Builds and US Dollar Dips. Will WTI go Higher?

Google, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, FXI, Dollar, USDJPY and Event Risk Talking Points: The Market Perspective: USDJPY Bearish Below 146; EURUSD Bullish Above 1.0000; Gold Bearish Below 1,680 A three-day advance form the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 may be cut down by a disappointing Google earnings and the anticipation of serious event risk . . . → Read More: Will Google Earnings Cut Down S&P 500 Recovery and How Serious is the Event Risk Ahead?

Gold, XAU/USD, XAU/CAD, Bank of Canada, COT, Speculators – Talking Points Gold is unchanged in Asia-Pacific trading after Australian CPI data comes in hot XAU/CAD may add to its losses if the Bank of Canada opts to hike rates at 75-bps Speculators have grown cold on the gold trade, according to recent CFTC . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: XAU Eyes BoC Rate Decision as Speculator Confidence Wanes

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, CPI, Inflation, RBA, Budget, AUD/JPY – Talking Points The Australian Dollar went sideways after CPI beat expectations A 7.3% headline CPI gives the RBA something to mull over after a dovish tilt Bond yields skipped north, but the RBA will be the focus next week

Recommended by . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Snubs Red Hot CPI that Puts the RBA on Notice. Where to for AUD/USD?

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD trades above the 50-Day SMA (0.9893) as it carves a series of higher highs and lows, and the exchange rate may stage a larger recovery ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting if it clears the opening range for October.

Advertisement EUR/USD on Track to Threaten Monthly . . . → Read More: EUR/USD on Track to Clear Monthly Opening Range Ahead of ECB Meeting

S&P 500, Shanghai Composite, FXI, USDCNH, Recession and Earnings Talking Points: The Market Perspective: USDJPY Bearish Below 146; EURUSD Bullish Above 1.0000; Gold Bearish Below 1,680 China markets responded abruptly to the end of the National People’s Congress and the release of 3Q GDP and important September data Recession is the top focus for . . . → Read More: USDCNH Soars, S&P 500 Diverges from Chinese Markets, USDJPY Falls Short Again

Copper, US PMIs, Rate Hike Bets, China GDP, Lockdowns, Technical Outlook – Talking Points The red metal is on the move lower for the second day despite upbeat China GDP data A contraction in US manufacturing PMI data drags on the red metal’s demand outlook Copper prices trade within a Symmetrical Triangle, indicating . . . → Read More: Copper Price Outlook: US PMI Miss, China Government Shakeup Bode Poorly for the Red Metal

Japanese Yen, USD/JPY, US Dollar, BOJ, Fed, Yield Curve Control – Talking Points Japanese Yen has found some calm after a stormy start to the week The Bank of Japan do not appear to have enlisted any other central banks yet Intervention might end up widening monetary policy disparity, boosting USD/JPY

. . . → Read More: Japanese Yen Subdued Against US Dollar After a Whippy Start to the Week

Gold Price Talking Points

The price of gold initiates a series of higher highs and lows as it bounces back from a fresh monthly low ($1617), and the precious metal may attempt to test the 50-Day SMA ($1691) as it reverses ahead of the yearly low ($1615).

Advertisement Gold Price Reverses Ahead of . . . → Read More: Gold Price Reverses Ahead of Yearly Low to Eye 50-Day SMA

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, China, Federal Budget, Sentiment, Technical Outlook – Talking Points Asia-Pacific stocks look primed for gains today, excluding embattled Chinese stocks Australia’s federal budget is due tonight, which may influence Aussie Dollar sentiment AUD/USD falls from trendline resistance, potentially opening the door for more losses

Recommended by Thomas . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Trails Chinese Stocks Lower Despite Dow Jones Gains

The British pound has found firmer footing after Boris Johnson pulled out the race to be Prime Minister. The US Dollar resumed ascending elsewhere as growth risks re-emerge.

British Pound, GBP/USD, US Dollar, USD/JPY, Yen, China, Hang Seng – Talking Points The British Pound got a lift from perceptions of a political resolution . . . → Read More: British Pound Bounces After Boris Backdown Amid US Dollar Strengthening

Japanese Yen, USD/JPY, US Dollar, PMI, BOJ, Fed, Yield Curve Control, Rates – Talking Points Japanese Yen volatility has exploded on the perception that the BoJ is active Japanese PMI data was overall a small positive, but fundamentals are against the Yen The monetary policy disparity appears to make USD/JPY intervention a challenge . . . → Read More: Japanese Yen Whipsawed Against US Dollar on Intervention Speculation

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, China, GDP, Sentiment, Technical Outlook – Talking Points A risk-on Wall Street rally on Friday sets a bright tone for Asia-Pacific markets Chinese economic data, including Q3 GDP, to set the tone for APAC trading AUD/USD pierced above a resistance level, putting focus on the October high

. . . → Read More: AUD/USD Eyes Chinese GDP After Dow Jones Surged Amid Risk-On Move

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US stock indexes finished the week with healthy gains despite ongoing bond market volatility that sent US rates to fresh multi-year highs. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 4.335%, its . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, Yields, US Dollar, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, China GDP, ECB, BoC

S&P 500 OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL The U.S. central bank goes into its blackout period this weekend ahead of the November FOMC meeting With no Fed officials slated to speak in the coming days, monetary policy could take a back seat to corporate earnings Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple and Amazon’s financial results will take center . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Week Ahead Forecast: Megacap Tech Earnings in Focus as Fed Enters Blackout

Euro Fundamental Forecast: Neutral Euro sees best week since late May after less hawkish Fedspeak EUR/USD may enjoy most aggressive ECB tightening on record But, key US economic data will compete for its attention as well

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Get My . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast for the Week Ahead: EUR/USD Eyes Jumbo ECB Rate Hike as Recession Looms

Gold Price Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Gold prices fell last week as Treasury yields rose amid hawkish Fedspeak A FOMC blackout period puts economic data in focus for rate traders US PMIs and weekly jobless claims data on the radar for bullion prices

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WTI, Brent Crude, Oil – Talking Points WTI looks to halt post-OPEC slide, support found around $83 Symmetrical triangle brewing as crude looks for next major move Trendline support offers bulls a safety net for attacks on higher prices

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Bitcoin Fundamental Forecast: Neutral BTC/USD restricted by rising yields and USD strength. Bitcoin withstands headwinds but can prices break the current range? BTC volatility falls below stocks for the first time since 2020.

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. . . → Read More: BTC/USD Price Outlook: USD Strength & Rising Yields Hold Bitcoin Back

S&P 500, Event Risk, USDJPY, Housing and GBPUSD Talking Points: The Market Perspective: USDJPY Bearish Below 146; EURUSD Bullish Above 1.0000; Gold Bearish Below 1,680 Japan’s policy authorities intervened on USDJPY into the close of this past week in a bid to leverage thin liquidity into a significant market-based move Event risk will ramp . . . → Read More: Volatility Ahead with USDJPY Intervention, US GDP for S&P 500, ECB Rate Decision for EURUSD

Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish The Australian Dollar bounced around last week as USD dominated proceedings Inflation gauges are problematic elsewhere and the RBA are about to meet their fate If AUD/USD breaks the current range, will it build momentum in that direction?

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GBP/USD – Prices, Charts, and Analysis Boris, Rishi, or Penny, who will be the next UK Prime Minister? Sterling’s relief rally looks to be over.

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The country will have its 5th Prime . . . → Read More: British Pound Forecast: Increased GBP Volatility as Tory MPs Decide on a New Leader

FTSE 100 Talking Points: FTSE 100 edges higher but psychological and technical levels aren’t making things easier for bulls. GBP/USD remains under threat as surging US Yields and a weak Pound drive the pair lower. Earnings season continues into next week as UK heavyweights provide an additional catalyst for stocks.

. . . → Read More: FTSE 100 Uncertainty Lingers Ahead of Bank Earnings

EUR/USD Under Pressure Below 0.9850 Area. Continued Dollar Strength to Keep Gains Capped. ECBs Potential 75bp Hike May Not Be Enough to Prevent a New YTD Low.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Backdrop

EUR/USD continued its indecisive . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Outlook: 0.9850 Holds Firm as ECB Meeting Comes into Focus

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Outlook: Bitcoin prices shrug off geopolitical risks while technical levels hold. BTC/USD price action continues to consolidate in a narrow zone. Major trendline resistance and key historic level restrict the upside move.

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S&P 500, Event Risk, USDJPY, Housing and GBPUSD Talking Points: The Market Perspective: USDJPY Bearish Below 146; Gold Bearish Below 1,680 With the biggest upper wick in four months adding to bearish pressure on the S&P 500, the onus of trend development likely project into next week with event risk like 3Q US GDP . . . → Read More: Serious S&P 500 Trends May Wait for Next Week’s Heavy Docket, USDJPY Keeps Climbing

Gold, XAU/USD, Treasury Yields, Technical Analysis – Briefing: Gold prices evaporated intraday gains on hawkish Fedspeak 10-year Treasury yield on longest weekly streak since 1955 XAU/USD eyeing Fed’s Williams and Evans before weekend

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Gold . . . → Read More: Gold Price Outlook Looks Grim as the Weekend Nears, Eyes on Fed’s Williams and Evans

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD carves a series of lower highs and lows as it continues to pull back from the weekly high (0.9876), and the exchange rate may depreciate over the coming days as the rebound from the monthly low (0.9632) appears to have stalled ahead of the 50-Day SMA (0.9902).

Advertisement . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Rebound Fizzles Ahead of 50-Day SMA

Japanese Yen, USD/JPY, Bank of Japan, Sentiment, Technical Outlook – Talking Points Asia-Pacific stocks face headwinds from higher Treasury yields to close the week Japanese inflation data in focus as heavy volume of options trades set to expire USD/JPY above 150 puts traders on alert for possible BoJ market intervention

. . . → Read More: USD/JPY Trades Above Key Level as Investors Await BoJ Intervention: Asia-Pacific Outlook

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD retraces the decline following the weaker-than-expected Australia Employment report to trade to a fresh weekly high (0.6356), but the recovery from the yearly low (0.6170) may end up being short-lived as the exchange rate struggles to push back above the September low (0.6363).

Advertisement AUD/USD Outlook Mired by . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Outlook Mired by Failure to Push Back Above September Low

S&P 500, Tesla, Earnings, Recession, Dollar and USDJPY Talking Points: The Market Perspective: USDJPY Bearish Below 146; Gold Bearish Below 1,680 The series of bullish gaps from the S&P 500 has been broken, but the reversal hasn’t exactly projected a robust bear trend Fed speak, earnings and international inflation have represented key near-term event . . . → Read More: S&P 500 First Gap Down in 5 Days, USDJPY Longest Run in 5 Decades

Gold, US Dollar, Treasury Yields, Inflation, Initial Jobless Claims Technical Outlook – Talking Points Gold prices remain under pressure in APAC trading as strong USD, higher yields weigh Initial jobless claims data is on tap, with a higher number potentially sparking a rebound XAU/USD is approaching critical levels that may dictate the near-term . . . → Read More: Gold Bends the Knee to Rising Yields and US Dollar. Will Initial Jobless Claims Spark Rebound?

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AUD/USD, RBA, ABS, Monthly CPI -Talking Points The Australian Dollar has eased after a benign jobs report Overall employment was unchanged against hopes of a small gain US Dollar may dominate AUD/USD ahead of CPI data next week

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