US PCE PRICE INDEX KEY POINTS: June U.S. consumer spending advances 1.1% versus 0.9% expected. Personal income at 0.6% m-o-m, slightly above expectations Core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, climbs 0.6% month-on-month and 4.8% from a year earlier, one tenth of a percent above forecasts Nasdaq 100 futures trim pre-market gains on bets . . . → Read More: Nasdaq 100 Trims Gains as Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge Rises More than Expected

DAX: Higher as Euro Zone Smashes GDP Estimates Despite Germany Stalling, Surging Inflation.

FTSE 100:Led Higher by Financial Stocks as Risk Appetite Returns.

Equities Q3 2022 Forecast

DAX 40: Higher as Euro Zone GDP Smashes Estimates Despite Germany Stalling, Surging Inflation.

The Dax traded higher in European trade as market sentiment . . . → Read More: DAX and FTSE Rally, Buoyed by Data and Returning Risk Appetite

USD/JPY Analysis and Talking Points USD/JPY Sell-Off Exacerbated by Technical Driven Momentum Falling Bonds Yields Benefit Low Yielding Yen

JPY: The sharp correction lower in USD/JPY extends further after key technical barriers had been breached, most notably the 50DMA which has defined the uptrend for the majority of the year. Consequently, stops are . . . → Read More: Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Capitulation as Bulls Rush For The Exit

GBP/USD – Prices, Charts, and Analysis The Bank of England (BoE) looks set to ratchet rates higher next week. GBP/USD daily chart looks positive.

Cable is going into the weekend in a fairly upbeat mood and has just printed a fresh one-month high around 1.2245. While Sterling has picked up a small bid . . . → Read More: British Pound Latest – GBP/USD Pushing Higher on US Dollar Weakness

US STOCKS OUTLOOK: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rise for second day in a row despite negative GDP data Bets that the Federal Reserve will soon pivot to less aggressive monetary policy amid rising recession risks fuel optimism on Wall Street All eyes will be on the June core PCE report, to be released . . . → Read More: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Retain Fed-Induced Bullish Momentum Despite Weak GDP. Why?

Leveraged trading in foreign currency or off-exchange products on margin carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. We advise you to carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you based on your personal circumstances. Forex trading involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits. We recommend that . . . → Read More: How Current Markets Will Impact Traders

German Inflation Annual Figure Slipping 0.1% Lower to 7.5%. Monthly InflationRose by 0.9%, Beating expectations of 0.6%. Eurozone Economic Sentiment Breaks Below 100

Trading Earnings Season: 3 Steps for Using Earnings Reports

DAX 40: Loses Upside Momentum as the Fed Rally Fizzles, Economic Sentiment Plummets

The DAX traded lower in European . . . → Read More: DAX 40 Loses Upside Momentum as the Fed Rally Fizzles, Economic Sentiment Plummets

RAND TALKING POINTS South African PPI shows no sign of letting up. USD/ZAR bears garner favor. Advertisement USD/ZAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

The South African rand gave back some of its gains today after the kneejerk reaction seen across global markets post-Fed. The expected 75bps interest rate hike received a dovish reaction but this does . . . → Read More: South African Rand Price Forecast: ZAR Gains Traction After U.S. GDP Miss

US GDP KEY POINTS: U.S. gross domestic product contracts 0.9% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, following a 1.6% decline in the first three months of the year Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is informally called a technical recession, but the government has a broader and more comprehensive definition The . . . → Read More: US Gross Domestic Product Shrinks 0.9% in Second Quarter as Investment Slumps

S&P 500, US Dollar Talking Points:

The Fed hiked rates by 75 basis points at the July rate decision and, at this point, markets have handled the news in a positive manner as the S&P 500 has jumped up to a fresh six-week-high. The US Dollar pulled back and as of this writing . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Rallies to Six-Week-Highs, US Dollar Sinks to Support on FOMC

FOMC KEY POINTS: The Fed raises the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 2.25%-2.50%, in line with market expectations The FOMC statement retains the guidance that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate, a sign that more hikes are on the horizon With the July monetary policy meeting in the . . . → Read More: Fed Raises Rates by 75 Basis Points at July FOMC in Fight to Quell Inflation

Leveraged trading in foreign currency or off-exchange products on margin carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. We advise you to carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you based on your personal circumstances. Forex trading involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits. We recommend that . . . → Read More: 3 Key Trading Lessons From Top Women Traders

USD/ZAR Outlook: Risk Assets Ease Ahead of FOMC

US stock indices S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq (US Tech 100) and the Dow Jones (Wall Street 30) are trading in the green after tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet released resilient earnings, easing sentiment before the FOMC rate decision later today (18:00 GMT).

With . . . → Read More: Rand Dollar News: USD/ZAR Falls Below 17.00 Ahead of Fed Decision Day

German GfK Consumer Confidence -30.6 Actual vs -28.9 Consensus. IMF Downgrades Global Outlook, German to Struggle. Natural Gas Prices Continue Higher as Nord Stream pumps at 20% capacity.

Trading Earnings Season: 3 Steps for Using Earnings Reports

DAX 40: Gains as US Tech Stock Earnings Soothes Investor Fears as the Fed . . . → Read More: DAX 40 Gains as US Tech Stock Earnings Soothe Investor Fears as the Fed Takes Centre Stage

US STOCKS OUTLOOK: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 suffer steep losses on Tuesday Rising recession risks amid weak economic data weigh on sentiment and hammer risk assets The FOMC decision will grab the spotlight on Wednesday

Most Read: Central Bank Watch – Fedspeak, Interest Rate Expectations Update; FOMC Preview

U.S. stocks . . . → Read More: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Fall on Recession Fears ahead of Fed Decision. What’s Next?

Advertisement Euro Outlook: Energy concerns trump all else for the Euro, as news that Russia is limiting gas exports has growth concerns on the rise. EUR/JPY rates failed to retake the uptrend from the March and May swing lows, EUR/GBP rates have fallen back to their June low, and EUR/USD rates failed to . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: Bullish Opportunity Slips Away – Setups for EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD

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Advertisement Central Bank Watch Overview: Rates markets are fully discounting a 75-bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with a 13% chance of a 100-bps rate hike. A weakening US economy has capped US Treasury yields and led to a decline in market-based expectations of how much more . . . → Read More: Central Bank Watch: Fed Speeches, Interest Rate Expectations Update; July Fed Meeting Preview

Market Overview: Fundamental Risks Drive EU Equities Lower

Interest rates, inflation and earnings are at the forefront of risk sentiment as investors remain focused on the economic calendar. With the current geopolitical backdrop favoring risk averse assets, European equities are struggling to hold onto gains as disappointing earnings and accelerating recession fears show . . . → Read More: Grim Outlook and USD Strength Drives DAX, CAC & Bitcoin Lower

US Consumer Confidence, Federal Reserve, US Dollar – Talking Points US JULY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT 95.7; EST. 97.0 Weakening data stokes recession fears ahead of Fed USD higher on the day as Euro falls on Russian gas fears

US consumer confidence data for July came in weaker than expected at 95.7, lower than . . . → Read More: US Consumer Confidence Falls in July – USD Marches Higher Ahead of FOMC

Japanese Yen Talking Points

USD/JPY halts the series of lower highs and lows from last week to largely mirror the rebound in US Treasury yields, and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision may lead to a near-term advance in the exchange rate as it appears to be reversing ahead of the monthly low . . . → Read More: USD/JPY Reverses Ahead of Monthly Low with Fed Rate Hike on Tap

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Advertisement FX Week Ahead Overview: The 2Q’22 Australia inflation rate (CPI) report will give the Reserve Bank of Australia all the more reason to hike rates aggressively in the near-term. The July Fed meeting will likely produce another 75-bps rate hike, but that may not be enough for the . . . → Read More: FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: Australia Inflation Rate; US Durable Goods; Fed Meeting; US GDP; Eurozone GDP

EUR/USD OUTLOOK: EUR/USD moves between gains and losses at the start of the week amid conflicting price action drivers The euro can’t take much advantage of the U.S. dollar softness as news that Gazprom will further reduce gas exports to the Eurozone weighs on sentiment In terms of the next catalysts to keep an . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Wavers Ahead of FOMC. Will the Fed Surprise with a 100 bp Rate Hike?

Bitcoin (BTC/USD), France 40 (CAC) Talking Points: FOMC rate decision remains a major event risk for speculative assets, Bitcoin retreats CAC 40 price action highlights critical resistance formed by key technical levels

Discover how to identify important levels of support and resistance with price action

It’s another huge week for event risk . . . → Read More: Bitcoin Prices Vulnerable to Event Risk, CAC40 Shrugs Off the Fed

Janet Yellen, the American economist now serving as the 78th US Secretary of Treasury, who also helmed the Federal Reserve (2104 to 2018), told NBC on Sunday the country is not currently in recession.

In a July 24 edition of “Meet the Press,” ahead of the much-anticipated July 26-27 FOMC meeting . . . → Read More: Janet Yellen Weighs in on Recession Ahead of the Fed Rate Decision

Global market sentiment continued improving this past week. On Wall Street, the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones gained 3.49%, 2.54% and 1.98% respectively. In Europe, the DAX 40 and FTSE 100 climbed 2.49% and 1.04% respectively. This is as Australia’s ASX 200 rose 1.95% as Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 2.59%.

. . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Nasdaq 100, Gold, US Dollar, Fed, GDP, EUR, AUD, Inflation Data

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Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral Markets are discounting a 75-bps rate hike from the Fed this week. That might not be enough for the US Dollar. After the July Fed meeting, there is one 25-bps rate hike priced-in through the end of 2022. According to the IG Client Sentiment . . . → Read More: Weekly Fundamental US Dollar Forecast: July Fed Meeting in Focus

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Relief at the pumps for US motorists as high prices affect demand Fed rate decision next week likely to support further declines in crude as demand destruction outweighs supply constraint fears. WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

WTI has . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Fundamental Forecast: Demand Destruction Outweighs Supply Concerns

USD/JPY FORECAST: SLIGHTLY BEARISH USD/JPY has risen sharply this year, but it may have topped out amid peak Fed hawkishness Rapidly slowing U.S. economy activity may pave the way for a monetary policy pivot later this year if inflationary pressures begin to moderate quickly The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 75 . . . → Read More: USD/JPY Outlook: Will the Japanese Yen Keep Weakening Against the US Dollar?

EUR/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis DailyFX data and events calendar needs to be closely monitored. EUR/USD – 1.0340 or 1.000, both levels may trade next week.

The next week is packed full of high-importance data releases and events with Wednesday and Friday of particular note. On Wednesday we have the latest FOMC rate . . . → Read More: Euro (EUR/USD) Forecast – A Week Packed Full of High-Risk Events

Gold Fundamental Forecast – Bearish Gold prices gained just one percent, but it was the best week since mid-June Markets are increasingly pricing in a Fed pivot despite 9.1% y/y inflation All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, US GDP and PCE data in the week ahead

Gold prices saw a slight recovery . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Reversal Might be Premature. Eyes on Fed, GDP and PCE

Crypto Key Points: BitcoinPrice Surges 20%, Ethereum up 50% Ahead of Historic Event. Collective Gains Push Overall Crypto Market Cap Back Above $1 trillion. Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish, Fed Meeting Holds Key.

Bitcoin, Ethereum & Alt-Coins: A Brief History of Crypto Winters

It’s been a week filled with impactful news headlines . . . → Read More: Crypto Forecast: BTC, ETH Lead Rally as ‘Merge’ Date Announced; Risk Event Ahead

AUD/USD ANALYSIS &TALKING POINTS Aussie PMI miss > U.S. PMI miss. Fed hawks under pressure as U.S. economic data disappoints. AUD/USD test key area of confluence. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BULLISH

The Australian dollar ended the week on a relatively positive note considering the fact that Australian manufacturing and services PMI’s for July . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Resilient Aussie Buoyed by Commodities Despite PMI Miss, Fed in Focus

British Pound Talking Points

GBP/USD continues to retrace the decline from earlier this month despite the limited reaction to the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI), but the Federal Reserve interest rate decision may undermine the recent rebound in the exchange rate if the central bank steps up its effort to combat inflation.

Fundamental . . . → Read More: GBP/USD Rate Rebound Vulnerable to Hawkish Fed Forward Guidance

US PMI KEY POINTS: Flash US Composite output index falls to 47.5 in July from 52.3 in June, hitting a 26-month low Services PMI at 47.00 from 52.7 prior, also a 26-month low. Meanwhile, Manufacturing PMI slows to 52.3 from 52.7, its worst reading in two years The sharp slowdown in business activity suggests . . . → Read More: US Business Activity Shrinks, Heightening Recession Fears, July Composite PMI at 47.5

German Manufacturing PMI 49.2 vs 50.6 Forecast EZ Manufacturing PMI Flash 49.6 vs 51 Forecast Germany Has Agreed an €8bn Bailout Package for Uniper.

Quantitative Tightening: What is it and How Does it Work?

DAX 40: Bounces Higher, Brushes off Manufacturing Slump

The Dax edged higher in European Trade, ending the . . . → Read More: DAX 40 Latest: Bouncing Higher, Brushes off Manufacturing Slump

SARB Rate Hike, USD/ZAR Analysis SARB hikes 75 basis points – feeling pressure from global peers and local inflation Key USDZAR technical levels assessed ahead of Fed rate decision FOMC and US GDP present potential opportunity for USD/ZAR bearish reversal Advertisement SARB Hikes 75 Bps as Global Peers Increase Rate Hike Increments

The . . . → Read More: USD/ZAR Price Forecast: SARB Hikes by 75 Bps, Rand Strengthens

British Pound Rate Analysis and Talking Points GBP Struggles Despite UK PMIs Range Trading the State of Play into Fed GBP Struggles Despite UK PMIs

Much like the Euro, the Pound continues to struggle with the currency shedding 0.5% against the US Dollar. While the flash PMIs for July were better than expected, . . . → Read More: British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD Struggles Despite UK PMIs

USD/JPY Price and Chart Analysis The Bank of Japan (BoJ) keeps buying bonds. USD/JPY faces a volatile week ahead.

The Bank of Japan bought in excess of USD115 billion of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) in June, a new record amount, as the central bank continues to hold borrowing costs at pre-determined lows. While . . . → Read More: USD/JPY Outlook – Drifting Lower Ahead of a Big US Data and Event Week

EUR/USD ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS EZ Manufacturing PMI Flash (JULY) – ACT: 49.6; EST: 51 EZ Services PMI Flash (JULY) – ACT: 50.6; EST: 52 Advertisement EURO ON THE BACKFOOT AFTER DISSAPOINTING PMI’S

The euro began its descent today beginning with French PMI’s missing estimates followed by German data which often services as . . . → Read More: Euro Breaking News: German and EZ PMI’s Touch Contractionary Territory, Parity Resurgence?

US STOCKS OUTLOOK: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rise for the third straight day, closing at their best level since early June Tesla rallies nearly 10% on strong earnings. Meanwhile, energy stocks sell-off as oil prices slump U.S. PMI data will steal the limelight on Friday

Most Read: Dow Jones Rebound Faces . . . → Read More: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Extend Recovery as Tesla Soars, Energy Stocks Dive on Oil Slump

S&P 500, ECB, Netflix, Tesla, Snap, AT&T, FOMC – Talking Points S&P 500 breaks resistance at 3980, bringing 4000 firmly into view ECB raises rates by 50 basis points in first hike since 2011 Tesla reports top and bottom line beats, shares soar

Equities pushed higher on Thursday as better-than-expected corporate earnings continue . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Stretches Toward 4000 as Earnings Come Into Focus

Australian Dollar Talking Points: The Aussie sprung back to life earlier in the week. AUD/USD is holding above a key area of support, while AUD/JPY remains very near highs while trying to hold support along a short-term bullish trendline. The analysis contained in article relies on price action and chart formations. To learn more . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Price Action Setups: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY

Leveraged trading in foreign currency or off-exchange products on margin carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. We advise you to carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you based on your personal circumstances. Forex trading involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits. We recommend that . . . → Read More: How Technical Levels Will Develop In Q3 of 2022

DAX News and Analysis ECB Raises all three interest rates by 50bps. Anti-fragmentation tool, Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) to be released at 15:45 CET Russia resumes Nord Stream gas flow, bringing Europe temporary respite.

Quantitative Tightening: What is it and How Does it Work?

DAX 40: Stalls and Retreats as Outsized ECB Rate . . . → Read More: DAX 40 Latest: Marginally Lower as ECB Surprises with Outsized Rate Hike

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Bank Earnings, Netflix, Tesla – Talking Points Dow Jones continues advance away from support at 30,000 S&P 500 breaks through 3950, resistance at 4000 coming into view Netflix pops as subscriber loss not as bad as originally feared

Equities pushed higher once again on Thursday as traders remained positive . . . → Read More: S&P 500 and Dow Jones Continue to Push Higher as Focus Shifts to ECB, Earnings

UK oil has been consolidating since March 22 high at 133.107 all the down to July 2022 lows at 94.480 and it seems like it is looking to re-test the March highs again in the near-term future.

The best to break this down is by doing a top-down analysis starting with the . . . → Read More: UK Oil – Looking to Rotate, Wave 4 Correction Completed and Rejected off 200 Moving Average

Advertisement Central Bank Watch Overview: The July European Central Bank meeting may be the most important central bank rate decision of the entire month. The Bank of England has signaled that it will raise rates by 50-bps in August. Retail trader positioning suggests GBP/USD rates have a bullish bias while EUR/USD rates have . . . → Read More: Central Bank Watch: BOE & ECB Interest Rate Expectations Update; July ECB Meeting Preview

DAX 40:Edges Lower as Eurozone Inflation Hits New All-Time-High. FTSE 100:Hits Three-Week High as UK Inflation Surges. DOW JONES:Loses Steam as the Safe Haven Bids Return.

What is Earnings Season & What to Look for in Earnings Reports?

DAX 40: Retreats Despite Positive News Regarding Russian Gas Flows

The Dax retreated . . . → Read More: DAX, DOW and FTSE Retreat as Safe Haven Bids Return

Nasdaq (US Tech 100) Earnings and Analysis Nasdaq pushes higher after “less-bad” Netflix results Nasdaq approaches key resistance ahead of tech heavy earnings still to come Tesla Q2 earnings expected after market close – Revenue $17.28 bn (exp) Nasdaq Pushes Higher After “Less-Bad Results”

The tech index continued its short-term ascent after streaming . . . → Read More: Nasdaq Price Forecast: Index Awaits More Tech Earnings, Tesla Next

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD carves a series of higher highs and lows as it extends the rebound from the yearly low (0.6681), and the exchange rate appears to be on track to test the 50-Day SMA (0.6971) as it clears the opening range for July.

Advertisement AUD/USD Poised to Test 50-Day . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Poised to Test 50-Day SMA After Clearing Opening Range for July

S&P 500, DAX 40, European Central Bank (ECB) – Talking Points S&P 500 gains more than 2%, but stalls just short of monthly high DAX 40 spikes higher as Nord Stream 1 resumes service ECB meeting on Thursday dominates an otherwise quiet week

Stocks gained as a quiet economic calendar stateside fueled a . . . → Read More: Equities Push Higher as Risk Sustains Serious Bid – S&P 500 & DAX 40

British Pound Talking Points: GBP/USD is staging a recovery after sliding to fresh two-year-lows last Thursday. GBP/JPY has found resistance on a descending trendline as looked at yesterday and, so far, support has held around the 165.00 psychological level, keeping the door open for bullish breakout potential. The analysis contained in article relies on . . . → Read More: British Pound Technical Analysis: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY

DAX 40:Higher as Europe’s Heatwave Piles Pressure on Energy Infrastructure. FTSE 100:Stalls Despite a Surprise in UK Job Numbers. DOW JONES:Gains as Optimism Takes a Hit with Apple’s Hiring Plans.

What is Earnings Season & What to Look for in Earnings Reports?

DAX 40: Higher as Europe’s Heatwave Piles Pressure on Energy . . . → Read More: DAX, DOW and FTSE Move Higher Despite a Dent in Optimism

RAND TALKING POINTS Possible short-term pullback on the cards for ZAR bulls. SARB rate decision in focus this week. Will R17/$ hold as support? Advertisement USD/ZAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

The South African rand has found some respite this morning on the back of a weaker U.S. dollar as money markets revise Fed rate hike . . . → Read More: South African Rand Price Forecast: ZAR Prepares For SA Inflation, SARB and PBOC Rate Decisions

Crude Oil Price Talking Points

The price of oil attempts to retrace the decline from the previous week following the failed attempts to close below the 200-Day SMA ($93.51), but crude may continue to trade within the descending channel carried over from last month as it fails to defend the April low ($92.93).

. . . → Read More: Crude Oil Price Trades in Descending Channel After Failing to Defend April Low

EURUSD, European Central Bank (ECB) – Talking Points EURUSD rally stalls short of 1.02 amid USD weakness ECB slated for first rate hike in 11 years on Thursday EU inflation data set to release Tuesday morning

EURUSD continued to push higher on Monday as traders brace for an action packed week. Having entered . . . → Read More: EURUSD Continues Higher From Friday’s Rally, Advance Stalls Near 1.02

Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin Talking Points: Bitcoin, Ethereum rise, softer USD boosts riskier assets Coinbase suspends its affiliate program in an effort to cut costs Price action rises above trendline resistance but technical hurdles remain intact

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin are trading higher in today’s session, with the total market capitalization of the industry rising . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC) Tests Technical Resistance – Softer USD Lifts Sentiment

CANADIAN DOLLAR KEY POINTS: Canada’s inflation data will grab the spotlight on Wednesday June’s consumer price index is seen rising 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The monthly reading is expected to lift the annual rate to 8.4%, the highest level since 1982 Another CPI report will likely cause the Bank of Canada to . . . → Read More: USD/CAD Falls After Channel Resistance Holds, Canadian Dollar Hinges on Inflation Data

Gold Talking Points: After spending late-May and early-June in consolidation, Gold prices have plunged to fresh 11-month-lows during the current five-week sell-off. Gold prices ran into the psychological level of 1700 last week but it’s the support a little lower, around 1673-1680, that looms large on the matter. A test below that zone leads . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: Gold Grasps for 1700 Following Five-Week-Plunge

Global financial markets came under pressure last week as recession fears permeated market sentiment, dragging on stock indexes, commodities, and risk-sensitive currencies. The closely-watched 10-Year/2-Year yield spread—a so-called recession predictor—fell deeper into inversion. That suggests waning confidence in the Fed’s ability to orchestrate a “soft landing.”

Economic growth expectations have softened . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, Crude Oil, Inflation, ECB, BoJ

S&P 500, DAX 40 Analysis and News S&P 500 | S&P 500 | Bear Market Bounce to Close the Week DAX 40 |Russia Gas Flows, ECB Anti-Fragmentation Tool and Italian Politics Take Focus S&P 500 | Bear Market Bounce to Close the Week

Despite the volatile FX action with the USD breaking out . . . → Read More: Stock Market Weekly Forecast: S&P 500 & DAX 40

USD/CAD Analysis Hawkish Fed re-pricing weighs on CAD. Demand destruction leaves crude oil muted. Advertisement USD/CAD Fundamental Backdrop

USD/CAD had a rollercoaster week after the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets by hiking rates by 100bps. The knock-on impact saw money markets price the Fed’s upcoming rate decision higher with 100bps call gaining . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Weekly Forecast: CAD at the Behest of Crude Oil and Rampant U.S. Dollar

Japanese Yen Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Japanese Yen remains vulnerable to a dovish BoJ Local CPI likely to clock in above their price target Central bank’s inaction leaves JPY to external risks

The Japanese Yen continued to weaken against its major counterparts this past week. This is something the currency has been quite familiar . . . → Read More: Japanese Yen Forecast: Will a Dovish BoJ Keep USD/JPY Rising? CPI in Focus Too

EUR/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis ECB rate hike and anti-fragmentation tool details are expected. Italian political instability and Nord Stream re-opening fears.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will this week begin hiking interest rates in an effort to stem rampant inflation and will give the market further details of its anti-fragmentation facility in . . . → Read More: Euro (EUR/USD) Forecast – It is Time for the ECB to Grasp the Nettle

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. . . . → Read More: Gold Prices at Risk on Global Inflation Data, ECB May Offer Lifeline

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Bullish The US Dollar climbed after Fed rate hike bets increased on strong CPI numbers Japanese Yen weakness likely to continue on dovish Bank of Japan policy decision EUR/USD to provide DXY tailwind with ECB rate hike unlikely to temper inflation

The US Dollar climbed higher last week, hitting . . . → Read More: US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: DXY Set for More Gains on Ailing Euro, Yen

Bitcoin (BTC) Fundamental Outlook: Neutral Bitcoin Holds Steady Despite Recession Risks

Recession risks remain elevated after US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data for June surpassed expectations once again, reaching another four-decade high of 9.1% (YoY). With market participants now pricing in a Fed rate hike of at least 75 (or a possible 100) . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Resilience Holds After Another Big Week For USD

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD trades to a fresh yearly low (0.6681) in July as a growing number of Federal Reserve officials show a greater willingness to implement a restrictive policy, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes may do little to influence the exchange rate as the central bank appears to . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Rate Rebound Susceptible to Preset Path for RBA Policy

Last month the European Central Bank (ECB) confirmed its intentions to raise rates by 25bp at the next monetary policy meeting, scheduled for July 21st. Going forward, even though gradual increments are expected, inflation in Europe has already climbed above 8% and the question remains as to whether small rate hikes will be . . . → Read More: Euro Weakness: Lagarde’s Test

Pound Sterling Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Mixed Race for Prime Minister hots up alongside UK summer temperatures Event Risk for the Week: UK unemployment, CPI Inflation Smart money sees potential for further GBP weakness

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

PM Race Hots up Alongside UK Summer Temperatures

. . . → Read More: Pound Sterling (GBP) Weekly Forecast: PM Race Hots up in Time for Heatwave

Consumer Sentiment, US Dollar – Talking Points Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Jul P: 51.1 (est.49.9; prev. 50.0) Inflation and growth concerns continue to weigh on sentiment US Dollar lower as markets battle over potential 100 bps rate hike

US Consumer Sentiment rose during June, as Americans remain worried about persistent inflationary pressures. 1-year . . . → Read More: US Consumer Sentiment Rises in June Despite Persistent Inflation, Growth Fears

DAX 40:Higher as Global Sentiment Improves. FTSE 100:Gains as UK Earnings Filters Through. DOW JONES:Cautiously Higher as Bank Earnings Continue.

What is Earnings Season and What to Look for in Earnings Reports?

DAX 40: Higher as Global Sentiment Improves

The Dax traded higher in European trade ending a difficult week on . . . → Read More: DAX, DOW and FTSE Bounce as Investors Temper Fed Bets

Talking Points: This morning brings the release of US retail sales data for the month of June. The retail sales report is usually the earliest look that investors get at retail behavior for the most recently completed month and, as such, there can be considerable attention to this data point as it may be . . . → Read More: June Retail Sales at 1% v/s .8% Expected, May Revised Higher

Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points Australian Dollar following risk appetite Modest AUD retracement, however, US will dictate the near-term direction AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FOLLOWING RISK APPETITE

Quite the whipsaw in the last 24/48hrs in the Australian Dollar, the surprise US CPI data prompted the Aussie to fall to fresh cycle lows. However, yesterday’s . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Retracement Stalls at Resistance

EURUSD, ECB – Talking Points EURUSD breaks below 1.00, trades as low as 0.9950 ECB meets next week, slated for 25 bps hike Fedspeak rolls back on aggressive 100 bps bets

EURUSD came under pressure yet again on Thursday, as sellers briefly helped price smash through parity. EURUSD has been in a constant . . . → Read More: EURUSD Breaches Parity as the US Dollar Continues to March Higher

KEY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. stocks slump on risk-off sentiment, Nasdaq 100 falls as much as 2% Growth-linked commodities, such as oil and copper, also take a beating amid growing recession fears U.S. dollar rallies across the board, EUR/USD briefly breaks below parity

Most Read: US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, . . . → Read More: Nasdaq 100 Sinks as Risk-Off Sentiment Dominates Markets, Commodities Slump

DAX 40:Selloff Gathers Pace as Recession Fears Mount. FTSE 100:Retreats as Stagflation Worries Resurface. DOW JONES:Tumbles as US PPI Rises Adding Pressure on the Fed.

What is Earnings Season and What to Look for in Earnings Reports?

DAX 40: Selloff Gathers Pace as Recession Fears Mount

The DAX fell on Thursday . . . → Read More: DAX, DOW and FTSE Retreat as Rate Hike Bets Keep Investors on Edge

SPX, MS, JPM Analysis and Talking Points US earnings season gets off to a weak start. JPM & MS Miss Expectations.

US earning season gets off to a weak start as the major US banks kick off proceedings. Both JP Morgan (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) reported lower than expected financial figures for . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Dips on Poor JP Morgan & Morgan Stanley Earnings

EUR/USD Analysis July 21st – crucial for the euro: ECB rate decision, eve of Nord Stream resumption EUR/USD range potential around parity as the psychological level holds, for now. IG Client Sentiment reaches extreme levels as trades attempt to call a bottom July 21st is a Crucial Date for the Euro

The 21st . . . → Read More: Navigating EUR/USD Around Parity: Trade Setup and Levels Ahead of ECB

Advertisement Euro Outlook: None of the major EUR-crosses suggest that the lows are in just yet, from a technical perspective. EUR/JPY rates have broken their multi-month uptrend, EUR/GBP rates have experienced a failed bullish breakout, and EUR/USD rates just touched parity. Per the IG Client Sentiment Index, EUR/JPY and EUR/USD rates have bearish . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: Positives Few and Far Between – Setups for EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD

USD/ZAR, USD/TRY Talking Points: Has a hot US CPI print Solidified Another 75b/p Rate Hike?

Persistent inflation has jeopardized the demand for EM (emerging market) currencies with lockdowns in China and USD strength providing an additional catalyst for developing nations.

For the South African Rand (ZAR), falling commodity prices and a reduction . . . → Read More: US CPI Smashes Estimates Placing USD/ZAR, USD/TRY Under Pressure

DAX 40:Selloff Continues Despite a Fall in Inflation Numbers. FTSE 100:Slumps as Upbeat GDP Cannot Override Lingering Recession Fears. DOW JONES:Tumbles on the Back of Red-Hot Inflation Numbers.

What is Earnings Season and What to Look for in Earnings Reports?

DAX 40: Selloff Continues Despite a Fall in Inflation Numbers

The . . . → Read More: DAX, DOW and FTSE Sink as CPI Jump Bolsters Fed Hike Bets

Bank of Canada, USDCAD – Talking Points Bank of Canada hikes by 0.75% as inflation remains elevated USDCAD spikes lower after lager-than-expected hike

The Bank of Canada elected to raise it’s benchmark interest rate by 1.00% as the central bank continues to battle rampant and historic inflation. This morning’s rate hike brings the . . . → Read More: USD/CAD: Bank of Canada Hikes by 100 Basis Points

Russell 2000 Index – 4 Hour Timeframe – July 13 2022

Source: TradingView, prepared by Zorrays Junaid

Elliott Wave Breakdown

As per the 4-hour time frame above the Russell 2000 is playing within an Elliott Wave Double Correction. It formed a new low which was subwave (i) of wave ((c)) . . . → Read More: Russell 2000 Index – Further Downhill Hiking Expected

S&P 500 – Talking Points S&P 500 slowly creeps higher toward 3900 US CPI data on Wednesday comes into focus BoC rate decision, PPI, & consumer sentiment data also on tap

The S&P 500 advanced on Tuesday as traders eagerly away Wednesday’s US CPI print. Following a tough Monday session that was dominated . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Marches Higher as Traders Prepare for Major Event Risk

Bitcoin Price Forecast: USD strength holds – strong employment data places US inflation in the spotlight, EM Currencies and equities fall Bitcoin fails to hold above $20,000, gloomy outlook reduces the appeal of cryptocurrency Price action remains within a well-defined range with Doji candles highlighting indecision. US CPI, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

The . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC) Treads Cautiously Ahead of US CPI – USD Strength Holds

Active and passive investing has been at the forefront of financial debate in recent years. Experts and analysts have strong opinions on the topic but there is no debate that both parties have valid points to consider when tackling this sensitive subject. This article aims to provide the relevant information to equip . . . → Read More: Active vs Passive Investing: Top Stock Investing Tips

DAX 40:Lower as ZEW Economic Sentiment Disappoints. FTSE 100:Indecisive Despite Continued Decline in Retail Sales, PM Battle Heats Up. DOW JONES:Down as Earnings Season Comes into Focus.

Equities Q3 2022 Forecast

DAX 40: Lower as ZEW Economic Sentiment Disappoints

The Dax remains pressured in a broad China-covid driven risk move alongside . . . → Read More: DAX, DOW and FTSE Slip as Investors Shelter in Havens

USD/JPY News and Analysis US, Japan agree to work together to address undesirable FX Volatility (G20 meeting on Friday and Saturday) Key USD/JPY technical levels ahead of US CPI data tomorrow Major Risk Events: US CPI, retail sales and Michigan consumer sentiment US, Japan Agree to Address Undesirable FX Volatility

On Tuesday, U.S. . . . → Read More: USD/JPY Price Outlook: US & Japan to Address FX Moves, USDJPY at 24-Year High

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Advertisement FX Week Ahead Overview: The Bank of England’s concerns about UK growth will soon be realized, as the upcoming UK GDP report is expected to show no growth for the three months through May. The June US inflation rate (CPI) report will give the ammunition the Federal Reserve . . . → Read More: FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: Eurozone Economic Sentiment; UK GDP; US Inflation Rate; BOC Rate Decision; Australia Jobs Report

EUR/USD OUTLOOK: EUR/USD sinks on Monday, hitting its lowest level in nearly two decades and flirting with exchange parity Fears that Russia may indefinitely shut down gas supplies to the European Union appears to be one of the main bearish drivers for euro June U.S. CPI data will steal the limelight this week. The . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Slumps and Flirts with Parity on EU Energy Crisis; US Inflation Data Eyed

S&P 500 – Talking Points S&P 500 begins week on the backfoot, rallies above 3900 continue to fail Evening star on the daily chart paints ominous picture for S&P 500 The analysis contained in article relies on price action and chart formations. To learn more about price action or chart patterns, check out our . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Under Pressure as Evening Star Formation Starts to Build

Gold Talking Points: Gold prices have pushed down to key support at 10-month lows. USD strength, as driven by inflation has been a strong theme of late and that’s helping to drive the move in Gold – this week brings a CPI print out of the US on Wednesday and this could produce some . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: Gold Breaks Down to Key Support – CPI on Deck

EUR/USD News and Analysis Germany’s biggest single gas pipeline shuts off for routine maintenance Key EUR/USD technical levels ahead of the next push towards parity Major risk events: US CPI, Retail Sales and Germany CPI Advertisement Germany’s Biggest Single Gas Pipeline Shut off for Maintenance

The much-awaited day has arrived – Nord Stream . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Update: Nord Stream Goes Offline, EURUSD Attempts Parity

Market sentiment improved this past week, with information technology shares leading the way. On Wall Street, the Nasdaq 100 gained 4.71% while Dow Jones futures gained just 0.87%. Things were also looking good elsewhere. In Europe, the DAX 40 gained 1.58% while the Euro Stoxx 50 pushed forward 1.69%. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, US Dollar, Gold, CPI, Canadian Dollar, BoC

S&P 500, FTSE 100 Analysis and News S&P 500 | All or Nothing on US CPI DAX 40 |Concerns Over Russia Turning Back On Gas Flows S&P 500 | All or Nothing on US CPI

Equity markets have kicked off H2 on the front foot with the S&P 500 on course to record . . . → Read More: Stock Market Week Ahead: S&P 500 & DAX 40 Forecast

Canadian Dollar Talking Points

USD/CAD extends the series of lower highs and lows from the yearly high (1.3083) even as Canada’s Employment report shows an unexpected decline in job growth, and the exchange rate may face a larger correction ahead of the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision as the central bank . . . → Read More: USD/CAD Rate Outlook Hinges on Bank of Canada (BoC) Rate Decision

Euro Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Germany records first trade deficit in 30 years as imported energy prices take hold Is the ECB too late to hike rates and Germany’s main gas pipeline to undergo routine maintenance from next week Major risk events: ZEW sentiment, US CPI, retail sales data and Michigan consumer sentiment Fundamental Headaches . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast: Parity in Reach as Headwinds Accrue

US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: BULLISH The U.S. dollar, measured by the DXY index, rallies in the week and trades near multi-year highs heading into the weekend The near-term outlook remains bullish for the greenback June U.S. inflation data next week could be a positive catalyst for Treasury rates and the DXY index

Most Read: . . . → Read More: US Dollar Forecast: June US Inflation Data Could Reinforce DXY’s Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) Charts and Analysis: Bitcoin makes a failed attempt at $22.5k in quiet market conditions. Ethereum edging higher but off a low base.

Another fairly quiet week in the cryptocurrency space with most coins trading in a well-defined short term range. Bitcoin has been trading either side of $20k for . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) Forecasts – Grinding Higher in Quiet Conditions