BITCOIN WEEKLY FORECAST: SLIGHTLY BULLISH Bitcoin’s medium term outlook remains negative, but a near-term bounce may be in the cards Crypto buyers could return to the market if BTC/USD manages to hold steadily above key support in the $29,150/28,600 range If a technical rebound takes place after the recent sell-off, the $36,000 area would . . . → Read More: Bitcoin Outlook: Bullish Scenario May Play Out if Key Technical Support Holds

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD faces a batch of key event risks going into the end of July as Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to hit a 13-year high, while the Federal Reserve appears to be on track to adjust the forward guidance for monetary policy.

Fundamental Forecast for Australian . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Rate Faces Australia CPI Report & Fed Rate Decision

GBP Analysis & News The lack of economic data leaves GBP crosses dependent on market sentiment GBP attempts to recover after a bad start to the week

With another empty weekly economic calendar ahead for the UK, I would expect GBP pairs to remain sensitive to overall market sentiment amid an array of . . . → Read More: British Pound (GBP) Weekly Forecast: Attempts to Recover as Sentiment Shifts

Japanese Yen Talking Points

USD/JPY attempts to retrace the decline following the semi-annual testimony with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell amid a rebound in longer-dated US Treasury yields, and the exchange rate may continue to appreciate ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on July 28 as the central bank . . . → Read More: USD/JPY Rate Tracks Rebound in US Yields Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: FLASH PMI REPORT FUELS USD BID AHEAD OF THE FED The US Dollar is stronger across the board of major currency pairs Friday morning US Dollar bulls trying to maintain control with the help of lingering inflation fears Fed announcement next week poses notable event risk amid taper uncertainty

US . . . → Read More: US Dollar Firms as PMI Data Echoes Inflation Risk; Cue the Fed

NATURAL GAS (HENRY HUB) ANALYSIS LNG looks fundamentally bullish Low storage – supportive of sustained upward price action Key technical level breaks could prompt significant price moves Advertisement LNG FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

LNG spot prices have surged fresh highs last seen in 2018. Fundamentally, demand from East Asia and the Pacific (green) region on . . . → Read More: Natural Gas Outlook: LNG Price Action Approaches Long-Term Resistance

Gold Silver Outlook:

– Gold (XAU/USD) prices remain unfazed by ECB decision

– Silver (XAG/USD) price action remains supported by psychological support at $25.00

– Will FOMC Meeting Minutes provide the catalyst for the next big move?

Learn How to Trade Gold by CombiningTechnical and Fundamental Analysis

Gold . . . → Read More: Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) at Critical Levels ahead of FOMC

In an effort to raise awareness for women-led companies in the stock market, DailyFX has indexed the best performing companies that have a woman at the steering wheel.

We looked at the companies within the FTSE 100, S&P 500 and ASX 200 who are led by women. Our ranking then scored . . . → Read More: The Best Performing Women Led Companies

Key Talking Points: GBP/USD unable to keep bullish momentum going Retail sales rise in June as social spending increases with Euro 2020

GBP/USD has not been able to follow through on the two-day bounce from recent lows despite a good reading for retail sales out this morning. The pair had managed to bounce . . . → Read More: GBP/USD Bounce Fizzles Out Despite Higher Retail Sales in June

NASDAQ 100, HANG SENG, ASX 200 INDEX OUTLOOK: Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes closed +0.07%, +0.20% and +0.66% respectively Both Twitter and Intel beat EPS estimates, but Intel’s forward guidance disappointed investors Asia-Pacific markets are positioned to open mixed. Japanese market is shut for a holiday

Twitter, Intel, Jobless Claims, . . . → Read More: Twitter and Intel Earnings Lift Nasdaq 100. APAC Stocks to Open Mixed

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, PMIs, Services Sector- Talking Points Australian Dollar fundamental outlook darkens as services sector contracts Sparse economic docket may see lackluster trading session to end the week AUD/USD’s technical outlook improves but path lower may be hard to break Friday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

Asia-Pacific trade kicked off with downbeat economic data out . . . → Read More: Aussie Dollar Slide May Resume on PMI Contraction, Extended Lockdowns

USD/JPY PRICE OUTLOOK: STRONG PMI DATA MIGHT STEER YIELDS & DOLLAR HIGHER The US Dollar whipsawed on Thursday and helped the DXY Index reverse its -0.3% decline USD/JPY price action weakened as Treasury bond yields struggled to extend their rebound Flash PMIs scheduled for release tomorrow could weigh on risk trends ahead of the . . . → Read More: US Dollar Outlook: USD/JPY Mired by Yields, Flash PMIs Due

Nasdaq 100, Treasury Yields, Intel Earnings, Dow Jones – Talking Points Nasdaq 100 leads markets higher as Treasury yields decline following disappointing jobs data Intel reports Q2 Earnings, Revenues & EPS beat estimates, full year guidance raised Nasdaq 100 gearing up for another test of 15,000 following constructive price action, earnings

US equity . . . → Read More: Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Strong Intel Earnings May Lead Stocks Higher

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RAND ANALYSIS Local outlook remains contentious despite riot suppression. South African Reserve Bank (SARB) remains accommodative. USD/ZAR primed for bearish downturn. Advertisement ZAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

The rand has been pulling back some of its lost gains against the U.S. dollar in line with dollar weakness across the majority of . . . → Read More: USD/ZAR Outlook: Rand Fades as SARB Keeps Rates Unchanged

New Zealand Dollar, NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, Covid, Risk Trends, RBNZ – Talking Points New Zealand Dollar gains against most peers as global sentiment recovers RBNZ interest rate bets swing higher as Covid-related growth worries subside NZD/USD bounce puts psychological level back in focus as potential resistance Thursday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

Asia-Pacific traders will look to . . . → Read More: New Zealand Dollar Forecast: NZD/USD Up on Sentiment Recovery, OCR Bets

EUR/USD PRICE OUTLOOK: EURO AWAITS ECB DECISION FOLLOWING STRATEGY REVIEW

EUR/USD price action was propelled higher on Wednesday. The major currency pair likely benefited from broad US Dollar weakness thanks to fading covid concerns and improving market sentiment. EUR/JPY gained ground as well, but the Euro turned lower against most other FX peers . . . → Read More: Euro Price Outlook: How Will the ECB Decision Impact EUR/USD?

COPPER PRICE OUTLOOK: Copper prices remain trapped in a narrow range since late June Directionless price action points to indecision and a lack of conviction in the market From a fundamental point of view, a downside move appears likely Advertisement

Read more: Copper prices test key trend support. What does technical analysis suggest?

. . . → Read More: Copper Prices Continue to Consolidate, but a Violent Breakout Could Come Soon

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Gold Price Forecast: Gold Price Forecast: Is This The Calm Before The Storm?

Gold finds itself at a crossroad ahead of a major week for markets. While the current trading week began with a bang in many risk-sensitive assets, gold has enjoyed relatively calm price action and teeters on . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: Is This The Calm Before The Storm?

Oil Price Talking Points

The price of oil snaps the series of lower highs and lows carried over from the previous week as it extends the rebound from the monthly low ($66.44), and crude may stage a larger recovery over the remainder of the week as it appears to be unfazed by an . . . → Read More: Oil Price Recovery Unfazed by Unexpected Rise in US Crude Inventories

DOW JONES, HANG SENG INDEX, ASX 200 INDEX OUTLOOK: Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes closed +1.62%, +1.52% and +1.23% respectively Cyclical sectors outperformed defensive ones as viral concerns eased Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index may rebound after falling 0.84% on Tuesday

Dow Rebound, Netflix Earnings, Hang Seng Index, Asia-Pacific at . . . → Read More: Dow Jones Rebound May Lead Hang Seng Higher, Netflix Earnings Miss

New Zealand Dollar, Covid Lockdowns, Travel, NZD/USD, AUD/NZD – Talking Points New Zealand Dollar weakens against peers as regional risks threaten RBNZ policy bets Australia’s Covid outbreak sees trans-Tasman travel bubble ban third state NZD/USD pushed lower but bullish RSI divergence may see prices rise soon Wednesday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

Asia-Pacific markets will likely . . . → Read More: New Zealand Dollar Outlook: NZD/USD, AUD/NZD React to Covid Risks, RBNZ Policy Bets

US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: DELTA VARIANT CONCERNS FADE, RISKS USD WEAKNESS

US Dollar price action strengthened against most FX peers during Tuesday’s trading session and left the broader DXY Index 0.15% higher on balance. USD/JPY advanced as EUR/USD and GBP/USD price action extended lower while the US Dollar weakened versus the Loonie. USD/CAD dropped . . . → Read More: US Dollar Price Outlook: USD Might Weaken if Covid Fears Abate

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Crude Oil Price Outlook: Crude Oil Price Forecast: Delta Variant Concerns Spark Sharp Reversal – The Macro Setup

Crude oil suffered a sharp reversal to start the week as worries about the delta variant of the coronavirus sparked demand concerns. A resurgent US Dollar on the back of safe . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Price Forecast: Delta Variant Concerns Spark Sharp Reversal – The Macro Setup

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Netflix, Dow Jones Earnings – Talking Points S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones all rebound sharply following Monday’s sell-off Netflix reports mixed results, earnings and subscriber growth both fall short of expectations US 10 Year Treasury Yield bounces, pushing cyclical stocks to outperform on Tuesday

Major US benchmarks . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Rebounds as Netflix Kicks Off FAANG Earnings

SPAC, Pershing Square, Universal Music Group – Talking Points: Pershing Square Tontine Holdings backs out of deal to acquire 10% Universal Music Pershing Square Holdings will now acquire a 5-10% stake in Universal Bill Ackman cited increased SEC scrutiny as a primary driver in the changed approach

Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, the blank-check . . . → Read More: Pershing Square SPAC Deal With Universal Music Group Falls Through

Japanese Yen, Safe-haven flows, Treasury Yields, Sentiment – Talking Points Asia-Pacific markets set for a rough session as risk aversion grips markets Japanese Yen attracts haven flows alongside Treasuries as sentiment sours USD/JPY testing its 100-day Simple Moving Average after big move lower Tuesday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

The Asia-Pacific session is set to follow . . . → Read More: Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Falls with Treasury Yields on Haven Flows

Nasdaq 100 Price Outlook: Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Stock Rout Sees Index Seek Trendline Support

The Nasdaq 100 is on the backfoot alongside other risk assets to start the week as covid delta variant concerns and seasonal headwinds work to erode risk appetite across global markets. While traditionally more volatile than the S&P 500 . . . → Read More: Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Stock Rout Sees Index Seek Trendline Support

New Zealand Dollar Talking Points

NZD/USD appears to be defending the monthly range as it bounces back from the session low (0.6921), and the exchange rate may track sideways throughout the week as the Federal Reserve enters the blackout period ahead of its next interest rate decision on July 28.

Advertisement New Zealand . . . → Read More: New Zealand Dollar Forecast: NZD/USD Rate Defends Monthly Range

Canadian Dollar Talking Points

USD/CAD extends the advance following the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision to trade above the 200-Day SMA (1.2626) for the first time in a year, with recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating a further appreciation in the exchange rate as the oscillator climbs above . . . → Read More: USD/CAD Rally Sends RSI Into Overbought Zone for Second Time in 2021

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, Asia-Pacific, Covid, Sentiment – Talking Points Australian Dollar faces worsening picture as local lockdowns expand Asia-Pacific markets left to prevailing trends on quiet economic docket AUD/USD faces tough technical picture after breaking September high Monday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

Asia-Pacific markets face a shaky open to the week after Australia tightened lockdown . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Under Fire as Australian Lockdowns Ramp Up, Risk Trends in Focus

Global market sentiment mostly deteriorated this past week, with major benchmark indices underperforming in North America and Europe. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell about 0.6%, 1% and 1.9% respectively. This is as the FTSE 100 and DAX 30 weakened 1.6% and 0.9% respectively. In Japan, . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, DAX 30, US Dollar, Euro, ECB, Bitcoin, Elon Musk

NASDAQ 100 FORECAST: BULLISH The Nasdaq 100 index pulled back from record levels as earnings season arrives Investors are anticipating a 64% YoY earnings growth rate for the broader market IBM, Netflix, Intel and Twitter results are in focus this week. What will markets look for?

A slew of upbeat bank results kicked . . . → Read More: IBM, Netflix, Twitter Earnings Eyed as Nasdaq 100 Faces "Reality Check"

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Bearish The European Central Bank’s Governing Council will announce its latest decision on Eurozone monetary policy this coming Thursday and all the indications are that it will be one of the last major central banks to tighten policy after the slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent recovery. If that . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: EURUSD Price Outlook Still Negative ECB Meeting in Focus

Gold Talking Points

The price of gold pushed to a fresh monthly high ($1834) as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell relayed a dovish forward guidance in front of US lawmakers, but swings in risk sentiment may influence bullion over the coming days as the Federal Reserve enters the ‘quiet period’ ahead of the interest . . . → Read More: Gold Price to Face Fed Blackout Period Ahead of July Rate Decision

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Bullish US Dollar benefiting from strong fundamental backdrop Accelerated bets on taper talks helping fuel USD Strength Safe-haven flows aiding Greenback as Asia battle Covid

The US Dollar finds itself in a solid fundamental position that may lead to further gains as Federal Reserve taper talk bets increase. . . . → Read More: US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: More Upside on Fed Bets, Safe-Haven Flows

Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD), and Alt-Coin Analysis and Charts: Major coins near important support levels. Trading ranges are narrow and volatility continues to wane.

The slow grind lower in the cryptocurrency space continues with the last week seeing five lower lows being printed in a row. Trading ranges remain narrow, leading to a . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) Sell-Off Into The Weekend, Support Looks Increasingly Fragile

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Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Bearish The third week of July brings about a quieter economic calendar for Australia; there are zero ‘high’ rated events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar. The Citi Economic Surprise Index for Australia, a time-decay measure of data momentum, closed the week at +35.8, slightly lower . . . → Read More: Weekly Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Nothing to Like, No Saving Grace

GBP Analysis & News Hawkish comments from BOE members keep GBP supported GBP/USD struggles to keep hold as EUR/GBP looks to break out of descending channel

Despite a tough week for GBP/USD the Pound remains supported by expectations of a more hawkish Bank of England. The lead-up to the August MPC meeting is . . . → Read More: British Pound (GBP) Weekly Forecast: On Alert for Comments from BOE Members

US DOLLAR PRICE OUTLOOK: CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS STIR TAPER DEBATE US Dollar price action is stronger across the board of major currency pairs early Friday USD bulls overlooking a miss on headline consumer sentiment with focus on inflation The DXY Index still faces formidable technical resistance posed by the 92.80-price level

The US . . . → Read More: US Dollar Outlook: DXY Reacts to Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment

USD/ZAR Analysis: Unrest remains prevalent in the province of KwaZulu-Natal – President Ramaphosa on the ground to assess damage to local communities USD/ZAR retreats from significant 200 SMA as favorable yields and commodity prices buoy the local currency Record surge in Covid-19 vaccine registrations while new infections remain elevated Unrest continues with KwaZulu Natal . . . → Read More: South African Rand Outlook: ZAR Strengthens Despite Ongoing Unrest

US Dollar Price, News, and Analysis: US Dollar (DXY) chart remains positive. US retail sales and sentiment data round off the week.

The US dollar basket (DXY) continues to edge higher, aided in part by a slightly weaker Euro, and is now pressing against a series of recent highs between 92.77 and 92.84, . . . → Read More: US Dollar (DXY) Outlook: Inching Towards a Fresh Three-Month High Ahead of Important Data Releases

Key Talking Points:

GBP/USD is attempting to hold its ground above 1.3802. This area has been significant for the last 4 months, having stopped a bearish reversal on at least three prior occasions, but the pair is facing increased selling pressure amid a rising Dollar, which could see price action break below this . . . → Read More: UK Morning Rundown: GBP/USD Struggles to Find Support, FTSE 100 Bouncing Off 7,000

CRUDE OIL OUTLOOK: WTI crude oil prices set for the biggest weekly drop in four months Delta variant spread, OPEC+ deadlock putting pressure on prices US retail sales, consumer confidence reports now in the spotlight

Crude oil prices saw heavy selling pressure this week, with the WTI contact on pace for the biggest . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Prices Under Fire, US Retail and Consumer Trends Data Eyed

Nasdaq 100 / Dow Jones Spread– Third Quarter Fundamental Forecast The Nasdaq 100 index is heading towards all-time highs at the start of Q3 A flattening Treasury yield curve makes the tech-heavy index more appealing The Dow Jones may be more vulnerable to a rapid rise in near-term rates

See the favorite trades . . . → Read More: Nasdaq 100 May Outperform the Dow Jones as Treasury Yield Curve Flattens: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities

AUD/USD Bearish – Q3 Top Trading Opportunity Sentiment-linked Australian Dollar fell in Q2 despite rosy trader mood Federal Reserve appears to be shaping up to be less dovish versus RBA AUD/USD may struggle amid important spillovers from China in Q3

See the favorite trades from each DailyFX Analyst for the third quarter. Download . . . → Read More: AUD/USD at Risk Amid Less-Dovish Fed, PBOC Normalization, Australia-China Tensions: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities

New Zealand Dollar, NZD/USD, Inflation, Bond Yields – Talking Points New Zealand Dollar sees inflows as Q2 inflation beats estimates Asia-Pacific equity markets on track to finish higher on the week NZD/USD pings 26-day EMA on move higher, will it overcome? Friday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

Asia-Pacific markets have seen a mixed week of trading, . . . → Read More: New Zealand Dollar Forecast: NZD/USD Surges on Red Hot Q2 CPI Print

KEY POINTS: S&P 500 falls despite strong corporate profits as investors grapple with inflation and COVID-19 concerns On Friday, market attention will remain glued to earnings, although key economic data in the U.S. will also be scrutinized Retail sales and consumer sentiment may offer some clues as to the strength of household spending and . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Slides as Traders Eye Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment Data

Talking Points:

It’s been an abnormally busy Thursday in the summer as markets remained fairly busy throughout the session. Of course, FOMC Chair Jerome Powell speaking at part two of the Fed’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony contributed to the drive; but that certainly wasn’t all as there were a few different themes of note . . . → Read More: USD, JPY Strengthen as Bitcoin Threatens a Break – Did Oil Just Top?

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD struggles to retain the rebound from the monthly low (1.1772) as Federal Reserve officials indicate a looming shift in monetary policy, but fresh data prints coming out of the US may keep the exchange rate afloat as Retail Sales is expected to contact for second straight month.

. . . → Read More: EUR/USD Hit with Hawkish Fed Rhetoric Ahead of US Retail Sales Report

Chinese Yuan, PBOC, Gross Domestic Product – Talking Points Asia-Pacific markets may recover after Wall Street bounces China’s Q2 GDP in focus as traders gauge path for PBOC policy USD/CNH falls to fresh monthly low but finds support at EMA Thursday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

The Asia-Pacific trading session is set for a busy day, . . . → Read More: Chinese Yuan Forecast: Q2 GDP Key to Gauge PBOC, USD/CNH Outlook

GOLD OUTLOOK: XAU/USD PRICE EXTENDS RALLY WITH REAL YIELDS UNDER PRESSURE Gold price action popped another 1% on Wednesday as real yields slid further A somewhat softer US Dollar could also be helping propel XAU/USD higher The precious metal might surrender recent gains if Treasury yields rebound

Gold price action has advanced for . . . → Read More: Gold Price Pops 1% as Real Yields Tumble to Five-Month Low

KEY POINTS MEXICAN PESO: Mexican peso strengthens after Fed chairman Powell says the US economy has not progressed enough to start dialing back stimulus and warns against acting prematurely USD/MXN pivots lower and retraces most of the previous day’s rally The outlook for the Mexican peso remains constructive over the medium term, supported by . . . → Read More: Mexican Peso Gains as Powell Cautions Against a Hasty Move, USD/MXN Tumbles

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD attempts to retrace the decline following the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the back of US Dollar weakness, and fresh data prints coming out of Australia may spark a larger rebound in the exchange rate as employment is expected to increase for the second consecutive month.

Advertisement . . . → Read More: AUD/USD to Stage Larger Rebound on Upbeat Australia Employment Report

CANADIAN DOLLAR PRICE OUTLOOK: USD/CAD WHIPSAWS ON BANK OF CANADA RATE DECISION Canadian Dollar is trading on its back foot immediately following the latest BoC rate decision The Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged and reduces its weekly pace of QE to C$2-billion USD/CAD price action recoiled higher off key support with help from . . . → Read More: USD/CAD Gyrates as Bank of Canada Reduces QE, Upgrades Outlook

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, RBNZ, Australia Lockdowns – Talking Points Asia-Pacific markets may see weak start after Wall Street losses RBNZ and Australian consumer confidence on tap for today AUD/USD approaches yearly low after overnight weakness Wednesday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

Asia Pacific markets look set to open lower after major equity indexes on Wall Street . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Outlook: Westpac Data May Underpin AUD/USD as Jobs Report Nears

CANADIAN DOLLAR PRICE OUTLOOK: USD/CAD EYES BOC RATE DECISION DUE The Canadian Dollar faces high-impact event risk with the BoC rate decision due USD/CAD price action could pivot lower if the Bank of Canada tapers QE further Language on the output gap, rate hike guidance might also weigh on the Loonie Bookmark our Real . . . → Read More: USD/CAD Price Outlook: Canadian Dollar Hinges on BoC Decision

MEXICAN PESO KEY POINTS: Red-hot inflation in the US boosts the dollar across the board, with USD/MXN climbing more than 1% towards the 20.06 mark Mexican peso’s weakness, however, may be short-lived if the Fed sticks to the script and reiterates that the rise in consumer prices is transitory In this article we present . . . → Read More: Mexican Peso Forecast: USD/MXN Jumps on Sizzling U.S. Inflation. Will Traders Fade this Move?

Japanese Yen Talking Points

USD/JPY trades to fresh weekly high (110.65) amid an unexpected rise in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), and fresh remarks from Chairman Jerome Powell may sway the exchange rate as the central bank head is scheduled to testify in front of Congress over the coming days.

Advertisement USD/JPY . . . → Read More: USD/JPY Rebound Takes Shape Ahead of Fed Chairman Powell Testimony

Dow Jones Price Outlook: Dow Jones Forecast: Will Earnings Season Push the Index to Record Highs?

Recent price action has seen the Dow Jones inch toward record levels even after the reflation trade was put on pause amid declining Treasury yields. The move highlights surprising resilience from the index, an encouraging development given . . . → Read More: Dow Jones Forecast: Will Earnings Season Push the Index to Record Highs?

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, Delta Variant, Economic Data- Talking Points Asia-Pacific currencies threatened as Covid drags market sentiment Chinese trade data on tap for tonight as lending rates set to ease AUD/USD remains near 2020 lows but downward pressure may ease Tuesday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

Asia-Pacific equity markets saw an upbeat session on Monday as . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Forecast: Chinese Trade Data Eyed as Covid Wave Worsens

USD/JPY PRICE OUTLOOK: US DOLLAR HINGES ON INFLATION DATA DUE The US Dollar edged slightly higher on Monday as markets position ahead of inflation data due USD/JPY price action could provide a clean reaction to Tuesday’s monthly CPI report release Fed taper risk might intensify and drive US Dollar strength if headline inflation tops . . . → Read More: US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY In Focus as Inflation Data Looms

KEY POINTS MEXICAN PESO: USD/MXN starts the week with a neutral bias, oscillating between small gains and losses around the 19.85 mark On Tuesday, traders’ attention will focus on U.S. inflation data for the month of June The Mexican peso outlook remains constructive over the medium term, although there could be some headwinds in . . . → Read More: Mexican Peso Outlook: Summer Doldrums Keep USD/MXN Muted as Traders Eye US CPI data

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Earnings Talking Points Wall Street’s earnings period kicks off this week as major banks report Q2 results S&P 500 earnings growth is expected to tally 64% from 2Q 2020, largest increase in over a decade Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 hover near all-time highs ahead of a busy earnings . . . → Read More: Wall Street Earnings Season Has Arrived, Here is What to Look For

New Zealand Dollar Talking Points

NZD/USD attempts to retrace the decline from the previous week after testing the June low (0.6923), and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Review (MPR) may sway the near-term outlook for the New Zealand Dollar if the central bank adjusts the forward guidance for monetary . . . → Read More: NZD/USD Rate Rebound Emerges Following Test of June Low

New Zealand Dollar, NZD/USD, RBNZ, Delta Variant, Economic Outlook- Talking Points Asia-Pacific currencies could see another volatile week of trading New Zealand wary to bring travelers home as Covid grips Australia NZD/USD starts week off on an upbeat note, resistance eyed Monday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

Asia-Pacific markets may be set to experience a volatile . . . → Read More: New Zealand Dollar Forecast: NZD/USD Balancing Covid Risks as RBNZ Approaches

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Markets experienced some turbulence last week as freefalling bond yields concerned investors and fueled an unwind of the reflation trade. The ten-year Treasury yield, for example, plunged as much as 20-basis points to a low of 1.25%. This corresponded with a sharp pullback in risk appetite that sent the Dow Jones . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: USD/JPY, Euro, Dow, Oil, BoC, RBNZ, Inflation, Earnings

GOLD PRICE WEEKLY FORECAST: SLIGHTLY BULLISH Gold prices may have some room to run higher in the near term Depressed real rates, concerns about the delta coronavirus variant and the slowdown in China may be seen as bullish variables for the yellow metal Check out our Real Time News page for timely market news . . . → Read More: Gold Forecast: Depressed Real Yields and Delta Variant Worries May Boost Bullion Prices

CANADIAN DOLLAR PRICE OUTLOOK: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY VOLATILITY TO RISE Canadian Dollar weakened considerably last week as market sentiment deteriorated USD/CAD and CAD/JPY price volatility is expected to accelerate in the week ahead BoC rate decision, BoJ monetary policy update, US inflation data, OPEC+ pose risks

The Canadian Dollar faced selling pressure against key . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY Due for Volatility

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Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) has dropped back as the calendar moved into mid-July on the back of declining Fed rate hike expectations and collapsing US Treasury yields. And even though another hot inflation report is anticipated, markets are actually becoming less . . . → Read More: Weekly Fundamental US Dollar Forecast: Will Hot Inflation Spark US Yields Again?

Australian Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Australian Dollar remains on the back foot as Covid cases increase Hawkish RBA signal fails to lift rate bets as more lockdowns seen June’s employment report may underpin AUD if figure impresses Increasing Covid Cases See New Wave of Lockdowns

Another down week for the Australian Dollar has . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Fundamental Forecast: AUD/USD Rebounds as Bond Yields Recover

Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD), and Alt-Coin Analysis and Charts: Bitcoin continues to trade sideways. Ethereum/Bitcoin spread giving backs gains. Dogecoin pumps after Elon Musk tweet.

The cryptocurrency market is effectively treading water over the last couple of weeks, setting up a box range in both Bitcoin and Ethereum. A lack of any noticeable . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) Waiting For a Shot of Volatility, Elon Musk Backs Dogecoin, Again

Advertisement Copper Price Outlook: Copper prices have almost staged a meaningful recovery in July. Just not quite yet as more technical resistance remains overhead. The demand side hasn’t recovered since news out of China that the government would release industrial metals stockpiles to cool their respective rallies. Trading is a function of both . . . → Read More: Copper Price Forecast: Technicals Stabilizing, Fundamentals in Question

British Pound Talking Points

GBP/USD appears to be reversing course ahead of the monthly low (1.3731) as Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey insists that the “economy is bouncing back rapidly,” and fresh data prints coming out of the UK are likely to sway the British Pound as the central bank upgrades . . . → Read More: British Pound Outlook Hinges on UK CPI, Employment Report

FINTWIT TRENDS U.S. listed Chinese tech firms are being punished by both the U.S. and China Could falling U.S. treasury yields be pre-empting another COVID-19 spike? Ongoing talks between OPEC+ nations continue to add market uncertainty Advertisement CHINESE CRACKDOWN ON DIDI COULD HAVE CONTAGION EFFECT ACROSS GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS

US-China tensions are resurfacing . . . → Read More: DiDi, U.S. Treasury Yields & OPEC+ – FinTwit Trends to Watch

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD extends the rebound from the monthly low (1.1781) as the account of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting highlights an improved outlook for the Euro Area, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) offering a textbook buy signal as the oscillator bounces back from oversold territory.

Advertisement Euro Forecast: . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Rebound Generates RSI Buy Signal

CANADIAN DOLLAR PRICE OUTLOOK: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY REACT TO JOBS DATA The Canadian Dollar is trading stronger on the session following employment data USD/CAD extends its slide 25-pips as CAD/JPY rises 18-pips in immediate response Canada’s unemployment rate dropped to 7.8% from 8.2% as 231K jobs were added

The Canadian Dollar is staging a . . . → Read More: USD/CAD Drops, CAD/JPY Climbs on Mixed Canadian Jobs Report

NZD/USD Analysis: Reserve Bank of New Zealand to provide update on monetary policy interventions and unlikely to alter the official cash rate ‘Death cross’ on IG charts opens the door to lower price action should the trading range break down IG Client Sentiment indicator reveals an increase in longs around crucial support zone

. . . → Read More: NZD/USD Price Outlook: Trading Range Develops Ahead of RNBZ Rate Decision

USD/ZAR Talking Points: USD/ZAR remains stable above Key Psychological Level of 14.00 Jacob Zuma (former SA president) begins prison sentence on charges of contempt, political tensions rise US Dollar strength and commodity prices remain primary catalysts for the ZAR Fundamentals begin to falter as SA continues its fight against the Delta variant

With . . . → Read More: South African Rand Dollar Price Forecast: USD/ZAR Poised for Bullish Breakout?

USD/CNH Price Analysis & News

Market Rethink on Lofty Growth Expectations Prompt Unwind of Reflation Trades China Cuts RRR

Market Rethink on Lofty Growth Expectations Prompt Unwind of Reflation Trades

The past week has brought about a re-think of market expectations over the economic outlook, with consensus reflation trades taking a . . . → Read More: Chinese Yuan (CNH) Sees Muted Reaction Following PBoC Rate Cut

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, Delta Variant, Treasury Yields, Chinese CPI – Talking Points Asia-Pacific markets likely to end the week on a sour note Chinese inflation figures to shed light on PBOC policy outlook AUD/USD approaches critical September swing high level Friday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

The Asia-Pacific session is off to a cautious start on . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Forecast: Risk Aversion Hammers AUD/USD, Chinese Inflation Eyed

KEY POINTS:

Persistent high inflation in Mexico could lead Banxico to undertake an aggressive tightening cycle in the second half of the year Markets expect two additional 25bps rate hikes in 2021, although investors are starting to price in a third one Tighter monetary policy by Banxico could benefit the Mexican peso . . . → Read More: Mexico’s High Inflation Opens Door to More Rate Hikes, Mexican Peso Outlook Brightens

Oil Price Talking Points

The price of oil extends the rebound from the weekly low ($70.76) as US inventories contract for eight consecutive weeks, but recent price action warns of a larger correction in crude as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from earlier this week.

Advertisement Oil Price Rebound . . . → Read More: Oil Price Rebound Emerges as US Inventories Contract for Eighth Week

Yen, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY Talking Points

This morning provided a spark of excitement across markets as a quick risk-off move took many by surprise. Equities around the world pulled back and this held through the US open. But, as we’ve seen with so many dips before, buyers have shown up and prices have . . . → Read More: Yen Rallies on Rates Theme: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

S&P 500 PRICE OUTLOOK: STOCK MARKET PULLS BACK FROM RECORD HIGH Stocks are reversing hard from all-time highs with S&P 500 price action down over -1% The S&P 500 Index is attempting to find confluent support around the 4,300-price level Eyes on Fibonacci retracements, the 14 June high, rising trendline, and MACD crossover

. . . → Read More: S&P 500 Testing Fibonacci Support as MACD Eyes Crossover

New Zealand Dollar, NZD/USD, Delta Variant, NZ Job Ads, Technical Outlook – Talking Points Asia-Pacific markets may see positive open after upbeat Wall Street session New Zealand job ads for June rise 1% in bright signal for the labor market NZD/USD makes modest break above trendline resistance, aims for 20-day SMA Thursday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook . . . → Read More: New Zealand Dollar: Positive Job Ads May Provide Tailwind for Kiwi Dollar

CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST DOWNGRADED FOR Q3 WTI crude oil prices surged 25% in 2Q largely owing to supply-demand imbalances OPEC+, Iran nuclear deal could drive an increase in crude oil production during Q3 Oil price action could face headwinds from seasonal factors or risks materializing

Crude oil prices made an explosive move . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Price Outlook: Bullish Drivers to Sputter in Q3

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Nasdaq 100 Price Outlook: Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Technology Stocks Extend to New Heights With Earnings Ahead

The Nasdaq 100 has reclaimed its place as the leader among US indices after the reflation trade was put on pause amid declining Treasury yields. As a result, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has . . . → Read More: Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Technology Stocks Extend to New Heights With Earnings Ahead

US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: DXY INDEX, FED MEETING MINUTES, TAPERING US Dollar peels back from session highs despite relatively hawkish FOMC minutes DXY Index erases intraday gains to trade little changed with Fed hawks uninspired Upcoming jobless claims and CPI data due for release could guide USD price action Check out our Real Time News . . . → Read More: US Dollar Pares Gains Despite Hawkish Tone in FOMC Minutes

KEY POINTS IVEY PMI: Canada’s Ivey Purchasing Managers Index rises to 71.9 from 64.7 and expands for the fifth consecutive month The strong results suggest the economy maintains momentum as we enter the second half of the year USD/CAD rises following the PMI report, but the move seems related to a large drop in . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Shrugs Off Strong Ivey PMI Data, USD/CAD Jumps as Oil Tanks

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, Covid, RBA Governor Lowe, Technical Outlook – Talking Points Asia Pacific markets may see weakness after Wall Street snaps win streak Delta variant of Covid weighs on sentiment, particularly in Australia AUD/USD weakness may extend further on negative technical signal Wednesday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

Asia Pacific markets may see a weak . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Forecast: Dovish RBA Adds to Delta Variant Woes for AUD/USD

GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK – EYES ON FOMC MINUTES, US DOLLAR, YIELDS Gold price action climbed on Tuesday to challenge the psychological $1,800/oz level Gold likely benefited from a sharp move lower in ten-year Treasury yields to 1.35% XAU/USD volatility might accelerate with the release of Fed meeting minutes on tap

Gold gained ground . . . → Read More: Gold Price Looks to FOMC Minutes as Catalyst for Volatility

Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD Rallies to Resistance as Crude Falls

USD/CAD is on pace for a stellar weekly performance after the pair surged to resistance and its highest level since late April in Tuesday trade. A quick reversal in crude oil prices alongside broader USD strength are just . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD Rallies to Resistance as Crude Falls

Gold Talking Points: Gold just closed June as its worst month since November of 2016. Already in July Gold prices have put in a stern bounce – but does this change the big picture? The next major drivers in the rates theme are expected later this summer, keeping the door open to mean reversion . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: Gold Bulls Make a Push from Neckline Support

KEY POINTS ISM SERVICES: June ISM services drops to 60.1 from a record high of 64, but manages to grow for the 13th consecutive month Despite the deceleration, the data remains strong and suggests economic recovery is on course, although at a slower pace U.S. dollar ticks lower after the ISM report, although the . . . → Read More: June ISM Services Slows but Stays Healthy, Dollar Fails to Stage a Large Move

Short USD/BRL on BCB’s Aggressive Tightening Cycle, Attractive Brazilian Real Carry

The Brazilian real has been one of the best performing emerging market currencies during the second quarter of 2021, gaining more than 14% against the US dollar. BRL’s remarkable recovery may still have legs going into the third quarter, supported by improving . . . → Read More: Short USD/BRL on BCB’s Aggressive Tightening: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Talking Points: Seasonality may drag on price action as the summer doldrums weigh on market activity Tight trading ranges are not inherently bearish, however, and the broader fundamental landscape remains encouraging

The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 entered the third quarter on the back of . . . → Read More: Equities Q3 Fundamental Forecast: Stocks to Enjoy Continued Economic Recovery, Seasonality a Concern

Long EUR/HUF, USD/HUF, Rising Interest Rates in Hungary Priced In

Back at the end of June, the National Bank of Hungary became the first of the European Union’s central banks to start increasing interest rates to ward off the possibility of inflation taking off as Hungary’s economy recovers from the global downturn caused . . . → Read More: Long EUR/HUF, USD/HUF: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities

Iron Ore, Global Economic Recovery, US Infrastructure Deal – Talking Points Iron ore demand driving prices higher as global recovery ramps up Pending US Infrastructure deal an additional tailwind for metals

See the favorite trades from each DailyFX Analyst for the third quarter. Download our new 3Q top trading opportunities guide from the . . . → Read More: Iron Ore to Rise Further as US Infrastructure Deal Aids Recovery Outlook: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities

Gold Price Forecast: Gold regains confidence despite bullish NFP report Inflation and unemployment to remain at the forefront of risk-sentiment, at least for now FOMC Minutes will likely be next major event risk for Gold traders Advertisement

Gold prices continue to serve as a primary indication of current economic conditions, edging slightly higher . . . → Read More: Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: Gold Holds Firm Despite Positive NFP Report

Advertisement Q3 Gold Forecast Overview: Shifts in the US Treasury yield curve, on balance, suggesting a period with stronger short- and intermediate-term rates, has been consistent with a stronger US Dollar and weaker gold prices. The expectation that the combination of loose monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy will soon end has started . . . → Read More: Gold Q3 Fundamental Forecast: Outlook Deteriorates for Gold Prices