Key Talking Points: Central banks to be in the spotlight in the coming months BOC expected to act before ECB to curb price pressures

Ever since economies started recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic shock, the talk of the town has been inflation and monetary policy. There is no doubt that central banks are . . . → Read More: Short EUR/CAD on Central Bank Differences: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities

USDCAD and Gold Talking Points: The Dollar ended the first half of 2021 with a strong rally, but the fundamental backdrop will make for a difficult environment to foster this recovery Should the Fed’s efforts prove successful in keeping the Greenback in check, there is some high-timeframe anti-USD potential in pairs like USDCAD The . . . → Read More: Short USD/CAD on 1.2000 Break, Short Gold as Monetary Policy Shifts: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities

Rand Fundamental Backdrop

The rand has displayed robust defiance throughout Q2 despite persistent local economic and political woes. This is no surprise as throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, the ZAR has predominantly been driven by external global factors. Risk sentiment has played a continual role in dictating rand trends along with its Emerging Market . . . → Read More: Long USD/ZAR: South African Rand May be Losing Steam: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities

GBP/JPY, BRITISH POUND, JAPANESE YEN – TOP TRADE IDEA, Q3 2021: Japanese Yen supported as the Fed moves up rate hike timeline Bets on structural disinflation give Japan a real yield advantage Pound may suffer outsized losses vs. JPY, topping pattern eyed

The Japanese Yen rose in the wake of June’s momentous FOMC . . . → Read More: GBP/JPY May Fall as the Fed Feeds Yen Real Yield Advantage: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities

Short: AUD/USD

Pending Short: AUD/JPY

AUD/USD Weekly Chart

Source: Trading View

AUD/USD trades to a fresh 2021 low (0.7477) in June as Federal Reserve officials project two rate hikes for 2023, and the exchange rate may continue to give back the V-shape recovery from 2020 as the Reserve Bank . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Correction Brewing: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities

Japanese Yen, USD/JPY, Fed, Inflation, Inelastic Travel Demand – Third Quarter Fundamental Forecast Japanese Yen weakness slowed in the second quarter, road ahead not easy A key upside factor for USD/JPY remains a less-dovish Federal Reserve Inelastic travel demand, vaccination rates may keep US inflation elevated

To read the full Japanese Yen forecast, . . . → Read More: Yen Q3 Fundamental Forecast: Road Ahead Remains Tough

US Dollar Index holds yearly opening-range into Q3 – breakout pending DXY testing critical resistance confluence into July open Constructive above 90.82– breach / close above 93 needed to validate DXYWeekly Price Chart

Into the start of Q2 our DXY outlook concluded that, “Bottom line: looking for topside exhaustion early in . . . → Read More: US Dollar Recovery Back at Make-or-Break Resistance – Q3 Top Trading Opportunities

Long GBP/JPY – Multi-Year Trendline Under Pressure GBP/JPY long-tern downtrend under threat A confirmed break above 156.00 opens the way higher.

GBP/JPY is up around 30 big figures from the spike low made in mid-March 2020 with the daily chart showing a series of higher highs and higher lows printed along the way. . . . → Read More: Long GBP/JPY: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities

Advertisement Q3 Top Opportunities Overview: Despite some twists and turns, the first half of the year was indeed about the growth story, and heading into 3Q’21, it appears that the tune will remain the same. The long US equities story is set to continue into the second half of the year. As long . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Gains to Persist; Stocks to Stay on Their Rocket: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities

GOLD & SILVER PRICE FORECAST – RALLY TO RESUME IN Q3 IF FED TABLES TAPER TALKS

I’ve been racking my brain for the final two weeks of Q2 trying to come up with a top trade idea for the upcoming quarter. This is largely predicated on my lack of conviction for the general . . . → Read More: Gold, Silver Price Pullback Could Provide Attractive Opportunities in Q3

US Dollar Fundamental Talking Points: US Growth Is Still Leading the Developed World The Fed’s Timetable and the Market’s Patience Always the Possibility of a Crisis

The US Dollar had everything aligned to its favor through the first half of 2021 and yet the currency struggled to gain serious traction. Some may say . . . → Read More: Dollar 3Q Forecast: Fed's Efforts to Temper Volatility Could Trip Up Greenback

CAD/JPY Talking Points: This is part of the DailyFX Q3 Top Trades. See the favorite trades from each DailyFX Analyst for the third quarter. Download our new 3Q top trading opportunities guide from the DailyFX Free Trading Guides.

Yen weakness returned in Q2 as the risk-on trade ran with a full head of . . . → Read More: CAD/JPY Bullish Breakout Potential Near Five-Year-Highs: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities

Robinhood (HOOD) Registration statement filed for Initial Public Offering

Robinhood has made headline news as it pushes forward with its announcement in March to go public which could take place in late Q2. According to analysts, the company could be worth as much as $40 billion. Robinhood Markets, Inc. is a financial services . . . → Read More: Robinhood IPO, Non-Farm Payrolls & OPEC+ – FinTwit Trends to Watch

Analysis: NFP mixed data halting the dollar’s recent run of strength Rapid rise in Delta variant infections continues to burden SA economy Key descending trendlines in focus – could we see the emergence of higher highs? Advertisement ZAR Gains Shortly After NFP Data Release

The ZAR gained against the USD, Sterling and Euro . . . → Read More: Post NFP Rand Price Setups: USD/ZAR, GBP/ZAR and EUR/ZAR

US DOLLAR PRICE OUTLOOK: ALL EYES ON NONFARM PAYROLLS REPORT Broad-based US Dollar strength is propelling the DXY Index to 12-week highs ahead of NFPs US Dollar bulls are flexing their muscles due to the threat that FOMC officials may taper QE Nonfarm payrolls might need to top 845K to catalyze a sustained breakout . . . → Read More: US Dollar Forecast: NFP Preview with Fed Policy & Market Impact

Brazilian real and Mexican Peso Outlook: Latin American currencies weaken on coronavirus risk in the first day of July The Brazilian real leads losses and tumbles against the U.S. dollar, Mexican peso also falls, but its decline is more moderate On Friday, investors’ attention will shift to the U.S. employment report Advertisement

Most . . . → Read More: Covid Virus Risks Weigh on Latam FX; USD/BRL and USD/MXN Spike Higher

Advertisement Euro Outlook: Euro Not Struggling Everywhere

Much of the talk around the Euro these days is negative because of the USD-centric bias among market participants. As attention focuses on the gains in the DXY Index, EUR/USD rates have come under scrutiny as it appears a significant technical breakdown may be gathering . . . → Read More: Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Rates Outlook

Gold Price Forecast Gold just finished its worst month since November of 2016. After November 2016, the Fed hiked eight times over the next two years. When the Fed began to shift back into a cutting cycle in 2019, Gold prices began to rally and continued to do so through the pandemic, hitting a . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: Is the Bullish Trend Dead and Done?

Canadian Dollar Talking Points

The recent rebound in USD/CAD appears to be stalling as it struggles to extend the series of higher highs and lows from earlier this week, but the update to the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may keep the exchange rate afloat as employment is expected to increase for the . . . → Read More: USD/CAD Rebound Unravels Ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report

US DOLLAR PRICE OUTLOOK: DXY INDEX CLIMBS TO FRESH POST-FOMC HIGHS US Dollar bulls made a strong push to close out the first half of the year 2.7% higher DXY Index might challenge trend resistance as economic data weighs on Fed taper bets Bookmark and revisit our Real Time News page for timely market . . . → Read More: US Dollar Outlook: DXY Index Extends Rally Ahead of PMIs, NFPs

MEXICAN PESO KEY POINTS: USD/MXN price action has remained subdued in the last few days ahead of a key holiday in the United States U.S. NFP data on Friday, however, could spark volatility in the FX market In this article we analyze the main technical levels to watch in the USD/MXN for the rest . . . → Read More: Mexican Peso Short-Term Outlook Hinges on NFP Data, Levels to Watch in USD/MXN

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S&P 500 Price Forecast: The S&P 500 has seen some of its tightest daily trading ranges in the last three years this week History suggests the trend of low volume and volatility may persist as summer progresses Holiday trading conditions may distort upcoming price action – Stock Market 2021 Holiday . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Forecast for the Week Ahead: The Summer Doldrums Drag On

Oil Price Talking Points

The price of oil holds near the yearly high ($74.45) as US inventories contract for seven consecutive weeks, and signs of stronger demand may keep the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on track to gradually restore production as the group sticks to the production adjustment table from . . . → Read More: Oil Price Resilience Pushes RSI Towards Overbought Territory Again

CANADIAN DOLLAR TECHNICAL PRICE OUTLOOK: USD/CAD WEEKLY TRADE LEVELS USD/CAD has started to show consolidation after the bullish bounce driven by the June FOMC rate decision. After a prolonged sell-off, bears were thwarted in early-June with a swing-low just above the 1.2000 handle. But after that failed breakdown, buyers have become progressively more bullish . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Bounce from Key Zone – Loonie Levels

ISM MANUFACTURING KEY POINTS: The Institute for Supply Management will publish on Thursday its June Manufacturing PMI report The market expects manufacturing activity to pull back slightly to 61, down from 61.2 in May. This rate of expansion would still represent above-trend growth A red-hot print, although good over the medium term, may trigger . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Looks to ISM Manufacturing for Next Price Action Driver – a Preview

US Dollar Price Forecast: US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Breakout on Hold, Awaiting Catalyst

The US Dollar has been in the driver’s seat following the June FOMC meeting but seasonal market conditions have worked to stall price action. As a result, the Dollar’s breakout has been put on hold and topside progress has . . . → Read More: US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Breakout on Hold, Awaiting Catalyst

New Zealand Dollar Talking Points

NZD/USD trades back below the 200-Day SMA (0.7045) as it snaps a five day rally, and the exchange rate may face a further decline over the coming days as it carves a fresh series of lower highs and lows.

Advertisement NZD/USD Slips Back Below 200-Day SMA After Snapping . . . → Read More: NZD/USD Slips Back Below 200-Day SMA After Snapping Five Day Rally

Bitcoin, Ethereum Talking Points: Cryptocurrency markets were falling dramatically last week, but after support set on Saturday for Bitcoin and Ethereum, buyers have been pushing the trend higher. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have recent tests of longer-term support coupled with short-term higher-highs and higher-lows. But there’s a subtle but important difference between the two . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) Take on Tone of Recovery

STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK: S&P 500 INDEX CLIMBS AS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IMPROVES S&P 500 price action is extending its advance during early morning trade on Tuesday Stock market gains look likely to continue in short-term amid prevailing risk appetite Consumer confidence data just released improved to 127.3, topping median forecast Advertisement

The S&P 500 . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Rally to Extend on Red-Hot Consumer Confidence Data

Stephanie Kelton is a rarity among scholars of economics. Instead of confining her ideas to a college lecture hall, she’s moved onto the world stage. Documentary filmmakers trail her. She has the ear of serious presidential candidates. Fans pack European arenas to hear her speak.

Kelton has emerged as the leading voice . . . → Read More: Luckbox Leans In With Stephanie Kelton

Australian Dollar Talking Points

The recent rebound in AUD/USD appears to be stalling after posting its longest stretch of gains since August 2020, and the advance from the yearly low (0.7477) may unravel over the remainder of the month as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to track the downward trend established in . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Rate Snaps Five Day Rally with RSI Tracking Downward Trend

Advertisement FX Week Ahead Overview: The final days of June and first days of July bring forth a mixed macro calendar: not many high rated events and a market holiday in the US for the federal holiday. Even though US financial markets have a half day on Friday, July 2, the June US . . . → Read More: FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: Chinese & US Manufacturing PMIs; Eurozone Inflation; US NFP & Unemployment Rate; US Holiday

US Dollar, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, COT Report –Analysis

GBP/USD & EUR/USD Longs Liquidated USD Shorts Cut by a Third Stretched CHF Longs May Be Vulnerable

GBP/USD & EUR/USD Longs Capitulate on USD Short Squeeze – COT Report

In the latest CFTC reporting period, which covered the aftermath of the surprise hawkish . . . → Read More: GBP/USD & EUR/USD Longs Capitulate on USD Short Squeeze – COT Report

US Dollar Talking Points: A back-loaded economic calendar may run into holiday-thin liquidity ahead of the July 4th holiday in the United States. The US Dollar has held near a key zone following the FOMC-fueled breakout two weeks ago. EUR/USD may hold some attraction for USD-bulls, as the pair has held resistance at a . . . → Read More: US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD in Key Zone, PMI, NFP on Deck

Financial markets recovered this past week in the aftermath of June’s Federal Reserve rate decision. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 3.44%, 2.74% and 2.35% respectively. Things were also looking rosy in Europe and the Asia Pacific region, where the DAX 30 and CSI 300 climbed . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, US Dollar, Non-Farm Payrolls, Crude Oil, OPEC+

Dow Jones & DAX 30 Forecasts: Neutral Dow Jones Forecast for the Week Ahead

The Dow Jones has forfeited its leadership position among the US indices as value stocks lose their shine amid slipping US Treasury yields. Rising yields had proved troublesome for technology stocks with stretched valuations, but the pendulum has since . . . → Read More: Dow Jones & DAX 30 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

USD/MXN FORECAST: MILDLY BEARISH Banxico’s rate hike surprise may help consolidate expectations that a tightening cycle has started Positive risk-sentiment and an attractive carry are likely to benefit the Mexican peso USD/MXN short-term bias points lower Advertisement

Most read: Technical versus fundamental analysis in the forex market

There are not many of . . . → Read More: Mexican Peso Forecast: USD/MXN Balance of Risks Appears Tilted to the Downside

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Bearish After last week’s strong Eurozone PMI and German Ifo data, Euro traders this coming week should focus on inflation numbers from Germany Tuesday and then the Eurozone as a whole Wednesday. The problem is that the European Central Bank will not be raising interest rates in the foreseeable future so . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: Inflation Data May Prompt Fall in EUR/USD Price

Key Talking Points: Gold builds momentum as PCE data disappoints NFP data to offer important information about Fed guidance GOLD TAKES ADVANTAGE OF WEAKER YIELDS

Gold is attempting to bounce back from the $100 drop last week but is struggling to get a foot in the door. Friday’s PCE reading saw gold prices . . . → Read More: Gold Weekly Forecast: XAU/USD Performance Contingent on NFP Data

CRUDE OIL FORECAST: WTI PRICE HINGES ON OPEC+ SUPPLY & IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL Crude oil price action just extended its advance for the fifth consecutive week WTI crude oil prices have benefited from rising demand as economies reopen OPEC+ boosting production, Iran nuclear deal progress, covid variants are risks Advertisement

WTI crude oil . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Price Outlook: OPEC+ Meeting, Iran Talks In Focus

US Dollar Talking Points

The US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles to retain the advance following the Federal Reserve interest rate decision as a slew of Fed officials endorse a dovish forward guidance for monetary policy, but fresh data prints coming out of the US may prop up the Greenback as employment is expected . . . → Read More: US Dollar Hit with Dovish Fed Rhetoric Ahead of NFP Report

Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD), and Alt-Coin Analysis and Charts: The cryptocurrency market remains heavy and biased to the downside. Ethereum/Bitcoin spread continues to slip lower.

The cryptocurrency market has turned lower again today after a tepid comeback earlier in the week with bears seemingly back in control of price action. Today’s quarterly Bitcoin . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) Slump Going Into a Potentially Volatile Weekend

Australian Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Neutral Australian Dollar recovered with the S&P 500 and Shanghai Composite Fed Chair Jerome Powell, PBOC liquidity boost may have helped AUD Eyes turn to Fedspeak, RBA Governor Philip Lowe, US non-farm payrolls

The pro-risk Australian Dollar outperformed this past week, gaining alongside the S&P 500 and Shanghai Composite. . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD, S&P 500, Chinese Stocks Rise. Fedspeak, NFPs Eyed

GBP/USDFUNDAMENTAL HIGHLIGHTS:

GBP Downed by BoE But Not Out US NFP to Spark Volatility

Despite the Pound rejecting the key 1.40 area and being pegged down by the BoE, it has been a robust week for GBP/USD as much of the post-FOMC hawkish excitement faded. The BoE’s recent meeting provided little in . . . → Read More: GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Awaiting US NFP to Dictate GBP/USD Outlook

Bitcoin (BTC) pushes off multi-month lows after Chinese Ban

Bitcoin has had a rollercoaster week after the Chinese ban on cryptocurrency mining sent BTC prices plummeting. Chinese miners account for more than 50% of world Bitcoin production, which is why the ban has disturbed the market so severely. The country is experiencing many . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC), Fed Speak & S&P 500 (SPX) – FinTwit Trends to Watch

New Zealand Dollar Talking Points

NZD/USD trades a fresh weekly high (0.7095) following a batch of mixed US data prints, and the exchange rate may continue to retrace the decline following the Federal Reserve interest rate decision as it extends the series of higher highs and lows from the start of the week. . . . → Read More: NZD/USD Climbs Back Above 200-Day SMA as Bullish Price Series Persists

Key Talking Points: Advertisement Significant Headwinds Ahead for BTC/USD

The bullish run in Bitcoin over the last few sessions has been short-lived. The main cryptocurrency has been rejected at the 23.6% Fibonacci level (35,916) as JP Morgan warns about new headwinds for Bitcoin in the coming weeks, bringing its target valuation down to . . . → Read More: Crypto Outlook: Bitcoin (BTC) Faces Significant Headwinds, Ethereum (ETH) Sticks to Descending Trendline

CAD, USD/CAD, Analysis and Talking Points

USD/CAD Pullback From Peak, Oil Prices Underpin Loonie USD/CAD (Inverted) vs Oil Prices

USD/CAD Pullback From Peak, Oil Prices Underpin Loonie

After a good sized pullback from the high 1.24s, USD/CAD has begun to consolidate around the 1.23 handle. A mixture of profit taking from . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Pullback From Peak Hinges on OPEC Meeting

Federal Reserve Stress Test Results Talking Points Banks passed the annual Federal Reserve stress test with flying colors, highlighting strength of industry Financial services sector outperformance in 2021 may continue with dividends, buybacks set to resume Major banks remained well above minimum capital requirements during a severe economic downturn Advertisement

The Federal Reserve . . . → Read More: Major Banks Pass Fed Stress Test With Flying Colors, Paving the Way for Dividends and Share Buybacks

BANXICO RATE DECISION KEY POINTS: Banxico increases its overnight rate by 25 bps to 4.25%, surprising investors Rising inflationary pressures prompt the central bank to adopt a hawkish stance The decision to tighten monetary policy unexpectedly boosts the Mexican peso against the US dollar Advertisement

Most read: Gold Grasps at Fibonacci Support but . . . → Read More: Mexican Peso Gains on Banxico’s Rate Hike Surprise and Hawkish Shift, USD/MXN Sinks

STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK: S&P 500 INDEX HITS NEW RECORD AS BIDEN, SENATE REACH INFRASTRUCTURE DEAL The S&P 500 Index is on pace to close at a new all-time high as stocks gain ground S&P 500 price action putting in a strong session with news of an infrastructure deal President Biden tweets that a bipartisan . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Leaps to All-Time High on Infrastructure Agreement

Gold Talking Points: Last week saw Gold prices take a heavy hit, and a week later there’s still only been a mild recovery. Short-term Gold prices are range-bound, and given the drivers that have pushed the trend and the fact that they may not be in the spotlight until later summer, the potential for . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: Gold Grasps at Fibo Support but Sellers Vigilant

Oil Price Talking Points

The rally in the price of oil seems to be sputtering as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls back from overbought territory, and crude may consolidate over the remainder of the month as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) appear to be on track to gradually restore . . . → Read More: Oil Price Outlook Hinges on OPEC JMMC Meeting

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Nasdaq 100 & Dow Jones Price Forecast: Nasdaq 100 Outpaces Dow Jones as Reflation Trade is Put on Pause

If recent price moves are any indication, the Nasdaq 100 has reclaimed its throne as the leader of US equity price action as fast growing technology stocks outpace value stocks . . . → Read More: Nasdaq 100 Outpaces Dow Jones as Reflation Trade is Put on Pause

GBP/USD Price Analysis & News

Expectations Rising for a More Hawkish BoE Main Policy Tools Seen Unchanged

Overview: The Bank of England is expected to maintain policy settings with the bank rate left at 0.1% and APF at GBP 895bln. Regarding asset purchases, it is likely that the BoE’s Chief Economist, Andy . . . → Read More: Bank of England Preview: How Will the Pound (GBP) React?

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD trades to a fresh weekly high (1.1955) as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell strikes a dovish forward guidance in front of US lawmakers, and the exchange rate may stage a larger rebound over the remainder of the week as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bounces back from oversold territory . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Rate Rebound Pulls RSI Out of Oversold Territory

PMI SURVEYS KEY POINTS: June Manufacturing PMI surges and climbs to a record high of 62.6 from 62.1 in May Meanwhile, Services PMI decelerates and drops to 64.8 from a historic high of 70.4. Despite the slowdown, this is the second fastest expansion recorded in the report Both surveys suggest economic recovery continues to . . . → Read More: Manufacturing Activity Surges to a Record High, but Services PMI Cools, US Dollar Retreats

GBP price, news and analysis: UK employment growth hit a record high in June, amid sharply rising workloads, and inflationary pressures also strengthened, according to the latest UK purchasing managers’ indexes. That’s positive for GBP/USD, which could touch 1.40 ahead of or soon after Thursday’s monetary policy announcement by the Bank of England. Advertisement . . . → Read More: British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD to Benefit from UK PMIs

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Talking Points: Advertisement

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) prices have returned to February 2021 lows as China continues to clamp down on the cryptocurrency space. After falling below the key psychological level of $30,000, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) bulls have managed to regain control over price action whilst honoring support and resistance structure, with today’s low . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Breaches, Reclaims $30k in a Wild Day for Crypto

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Gold Price Forecast: Gold Price Forecast: Is XAU/USD at Risk of Further Losses?

Gold has been on the backfoot following the June FOMC meeting at which the central bank revealed an accelerated rate hike schedule. The announcement sparked US Dollar strength which helped to ignite a vicious gold selloff . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: Is XAU/USD at Risk of Further Losses?

US Dollar Talking Points: Last week saw a significant move in the US Dollar, with the Greenback jumping by more than 2.5% around the FOMC rate decision. This week sees the US currency remain in the spotlight: Friday brings the release of PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. But there’s a plethora of Fed-speak . . . → Read More: US Dollar Technical Analysis: USD Grasps for Higher-Low Support

Canadian Dollar Talking Points

USD/CAD attempts to retrace the decline from the start of the week even as Federal Reserve officials talk down speculation for an imminent shift in monetary policy, and the exchange rate may stage a larger correction over the remainder of the month as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears . . . → Read More: USD/CAD to Stage Larger Correction on Another Overbought RSI Reading

Crypto Talking Points: It hasn’t even been a week since the FOMC rate decision and crypto markets continue to go through heavy re-pricing in the aftermath. Michael Burry warned of crypto leverage and we seem to be seeing some of that in action as price slides have continued to pick up steam as pressure . . . → Read More: Crypto Falling Knives: BTC Below 30k, ETH Below 2k, Doge Plays Dead

BANXICO KEY POINTS: Banxico will announce its fourth monetary policy decision of the year on Thursday No change in interest rates is expected, but the central bank could adopt a more hawkish language in response to the deteriorating inflation outlook. A hawkish pivot in forward-guidance could support the Mexican peso over the medium term. . . . → Read More: Banxico Expected to Keep Rates at 4%, but a Hawkish Pivot May Support the Mexican Peso

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD attempts to retrace the decline following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision as it bounces back from a fresh 2021 low (0.7477), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating a textbook buy signal as it rebounds from oversold territory and climbs back above 30.

Advertisement . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Rebounds From Fresh 2021 Low with RSI Buy Signal Taking Shape

Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels USD/CAD put in a massive reversal last week on the back of the FOMC. Does the reversal have staying power? Short-term bullish momentum keeps the door open for higher-highs. The analysis contained in article relies on price action and chart formations. To learn more about . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Surge Pulls Back – Loonie Levels

Japanese Yen Talking Points

USD/JPY gives back the advance following the Federal Reserve interest rate decision as the 10-Year US Treasury yield slips to a fresh monthly low (1.35%), and the exchange rate appears to have reversed course ahead of the 2021 high (110.97) as it carves a series of lower highs and . . . → Read More: USD/JPY Reverses Ahead of 2021 High with US PCE Price Index on Tap

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RAND ANALYSIS Rand resumes week in the green USD/ZAR testing long-term resistance Advertisement

SOUTH AFRICAN RAND FALLS FROM BEST PERFORMING CURRENCY VS U.S. DOLLAR YTD

Last week the South African rand did not react well to the Federal Reserve’s dot plot adjustment message. This week, the local currency . . . → Read More: USD/ZAR Forecast: SA Rand Pulling Back After Hawkish Fed Scare

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Markets were roiled by a wave of volatility last week largely in response to the Fed bringing forward its interest rate hike projections. Federal Reserve officials penciled in two rate hikes by the end of 2023, which was considerably more hawkish than expected. Not to mention, Fed Chair Powell retired the . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Gold, Dow, Pound-Dollar, BoE Rate Decision, Fed Risk, PMIs

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Weekly Fundamental Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Tough sledding ahead for gold prices as the sea change in fundamentals coincided with a significant technical breakdown. A quieter economic calendar may deprive gold prices of a needed catalyst to shift the burgeoning narrative. The IG Client Sentiment Indexsuggests that gold prices in USD-terms . . . → Read More: Weekly Fundamental Gold Price Forecast: The Tides Have Turned

USD/MXN Forecast: Bullish Advertisement

USD/MXN has been on a strong uptrend since the US Dollar bounced back last week, helped even further by the Fed’s hawkish comments on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. The pair had been struggling to achieve a significant break below 19.68 for the past two months, building up bullish momentum along . . . → Read More: Mexican Peso Weekly Forecast: USD/MXN Charges Higher

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Bearish Last week’s FOMC meeting could prove to have been a watershed moment for EUR/USD. It’s now even more clear that the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee is more hawkish than the ECB’s, and that will likely weaken EUR/USD further in the weeks ahead. Even in the short term, EUR/USD could fall . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: Time to Turn Bearish on Long-Term EUR/USD Price Outlook

CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BULLISH The Fed hawkish stance leads to some reflationary trade positions unwinding, but the central bank’s bias does not change the fundamental bullish outlook for oil prices As demand strengthens and supply remains constrained by OPEC+, crude oil will stay supported International travel normalization can be seen as another positive . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Price Forecast: Bullish Scenario Remains Intact amid Strengthening Demand

USD FUNDAMENTAL HIGHLIGHTS: A hawkish Fed Pivot – Is the USD Rally Transitory? Was it the Fed or the FT that Marked the USD Bottom

A hawkish Fed Pivot – Is the USD Rally Transitory?

A hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve, with the main takeaway being that the dot plot . . . → Read More: US Dollar Outlook: A hawkish Fed Pivot – Is the USD Rally Transitory?

Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD), and Alt-Coin Analysis and Charts:

The cryptocurrency market is ending the week in the red after giving back all of its earlier gains. A raft of alt-coins are registering double-digit losses and the overall market tone has turned from excited to quiet over the past weeks. Reaction to any . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC): Short-Term Support Under Threat as Positive Sentiment Wanes

Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral Aussie Dollar descends into darkness after FOMC catapults US Dollar Beijing curb on commodity prices also dragging Aussie Dollar lower Economic calendar next week leaves AUD at mercy of Greenback

The Australian Dollar was battered by the US Dollar last week following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) policy . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Outlook: Hard Fight Ahead Against FOMC-Charged US Dollar

British Pound Talking Points

GBP/USD clears the May low (1.3801) as the Federal Reserve forecasts two rate hikes for 2023, and the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision may do little to sway the exchange rate as the central bank is widely expected to retain the current course for monetary policy.

. . . → Read More: British Pound Outlook: GBP/USD Clears May Low Ahead of BoE

In April, the digital experience management software company Sitecore released its Amazon-focused survey. And in May, Investor’s Business Daily and TechnoMetrica collaborated on a big tech poll (IBD/TIPP). So, Luckbox conducted a survey of its own, asking readers some of the same questions as the other surveys, for comparison purposes, and some original . . . → Read More: Surveying the Amazon

For years, Amazon hadn’t faced the antitrust scrutiny that plagued rivals like Apple and Alphabet. But now Jeff Bezos finds his firm at the center of an intense ideological battle over the role of big tech companies in the U.S. economy.

In October 2020, Congress questioned the business practices of the . . . → Read More: Amazon Primeval

Bitcoin continues to trade within a defined support and resistance band Rates markets awash with speculation as yield curve flattens U.S. equities fall from record highs Advertisement Elon Musk’s social media shenanigans directing Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin pushed above the $40000 mark this week after tweets from Tesla CEO, Elon Musk helped boost . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC), The Fed & S&P 500 (SPX) – FinTwit Trends to Watch

Stock Market Forecast: Amazon’s annual Prime Day event runs from June 21 to June 22 this year The retailer has created an event that sees its sales surpass Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined Prime Day can also offer insights into consumer trends, demand and discretionary spending Stock Market Forecast: Amazon’s Prime Day is . . . → Read More: Stock Market Forecast: Amazon's Prime Day is Making Retailer History

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD trades to a fresh monthly low (1.1867) as it extends the series of lower highs and lows following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, and recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) warn of a further decline in the exchange rate as the indicator . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Faces First Oversold RSI Reading Since February 2020

JAPANESE YEN KEY POINTS: USD/JPY turns lower after colliding with a key technical resistance near the 110.80/110.97 area Despite the mild pull-back observed on Thursday, the dollar maintains a bullish bias against the Japanese Yen In this article we present the most relevant technical levels for the USD/JPY near term Advertisement

Most read: . . . → Read More: USD/JPY Fails at Resistance and Pivots Lower, but the Underlying Trend Remains Bullish

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Bitcoin Price Stalls at Resistance – Can BTC Avoid Range-Bound Trading?

Bitcoin has been on a wild ride recently as the cryptocurrency surged to record highs before plummeting to its lowest level in months all in the matter of a few weeks. The digital currency’s initial gains were established . . . → Read More: Bitcoin Price Stalls at Resistance – Can BTC Avoid Range-Bound Trading?

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD slips below the 200-Day SMA (0.7548) for the first time since June 2020 as fresh forecasts coming out of the Federal Reserve indicate two rate hikes for 2023, and the exchange rate appears to be on track to test the yearly low (0.7532) as it fails to retain . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Rate Slips Below 200-Day SMA for First Since June 2020

Euro Talking Points: The single currency put in big moves against USD and JPY on the heels of yesterday’s FOMC rate decision. In EUR/USD, it appears that we have a trend reversal whereas EUR/JPY bulls may still be able to make a case for continuation. EUR/GBP, however, presents an interesting situation for those looking . . . → Read More: Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP

Gold Price Talking Points

The price of gold tumbles to a fresh monthly low ($1776) as the Federal Reserve continues to upgrade its economic outlook for the US economy, and looming developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may show the bearish momentum gathering pace as the indicator approaches oversold territory.

Advertisement Gold . . . → Read More: Gold Price Vulnerable Following FOMC as RSI Approaches Oversold Zone

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Dow Jones Price Forecast: Dow Jones Price Falls to Key Trendline As Fed Enters Taper Talk Window

The Dow Jones is at risk of breaking beneath a key trendline following the June FOMC meeting. In the corresponding press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell revealed the central bank has effectively . . . → Read More: Dow Jones Price Falls to Key Trendline as Fed Enters Taper Talk Window

US DOLLAR, FED DECISION, POWELL PRESS CONFERENCE – TALKING POINTS US Dollar strength in response to the latest FOMC decision could start to sputter Fed Chair Powell is softening up dot plot projections that upgraded rate liftoff The Federal Reserve still wants to see ‘substantial further progress’ toward goals Advertisement

The US Dollar . . . → Read More: US Dollar Strength Might Fade as Powell Downplays Fed Dot Plot

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RAND ANALYSIS Rates unchanged however 2023 dot plot changes Heavier lockdown restrictions in South Africa Advertisement

The Federal Reservemet today which resulted in an expected “no change” in interest rates ( see calendar below) but what bolstered the U.S. dollar and hence USD/ZAR was the change in 2023 projections. . . . → Read More: USD/ZAR Forecast: Fed Hawkish Surprise Depresses Rand Gains

Oil Price Talking Points

The price of oil trades to a fresh yearly high ($72.93) amid a larger-than-expected decline in US inventories, and the overbought reading in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may continue to be accompanied by higher crude prices like the behavior seen earlier this year.

Advertisement Oil Price Rally Eyes . . . → Read More: Oil Price Rally Eyes 2018 High as RSI Pushes Into Overbought Territory

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US DOLLAR, TREASURY YIELDS, FED MEETING – TALKING POINTS US Dollar price action is broadly stronger as yields push higher post-Fed decision The Federal Reserve dot plot pencils in two interest rate hikes by the end of 2023 start to discuss a timeline for tapering asset purchases Visit the DailyFX . . . → Read More: US Dollar, Yields Surge as Fed Brings Forward Taper Timeline

Gold Price Forecast: Gold Price Retreats to Support Ahead of Pivotal FOMC Meeting

Gold prices ticked lower to start the week as traders anxiously await the looming Federal Open Market Committee meeting due Wednesday. The event, which has been lauded as the top event risk of the month by many, possesses the potential . . . → Read More: Gold Price Retreats to Support Ahead of Pivotal FOMC Meeting

New Zealand Dollar Talking Points

NZD/USD trades to a fresh monthly low (0.7112) as the Global Dairy Trade’s bi-weekly auction shows another decline in the GDT Price Index, and the exchange rate is likely to face increased volatility over the next 24-hours with both the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and New Zealand’s . . . → Read More: NZD/USD Rate to Face FOMC Rate Decision, NZ GDP Report

US Dollar, FOMC Talking Points Tomorrow brings a quarterly FOMC rate decision, meaning updated forecasts and projections are on their way. Judging by moves in the bond market, it appears there’s scant expectations for anything material. The big mover (or lack thereof) will likely emanate from the Summary of Economic Projections. The analysis contained . . . → Read More: US Dollar Price Action Setups Pre-FOMC: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD

Japanese Yen Talking Points

USD/JPY trades to a fresh weekly high (110.17) as longer-dated US Treasury yields recover ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and fresh projections coming out of the central bank are likely to sway the exchange rate as Fed officials are slated to update the Summary of Economic . . . → Read More: USD/JPY Eyes June High Ahead of FOMC amid Recovery in US Yields

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Market sentiment analysis: As traders remain wary ahead of this week’s decisions on US monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, there are no clear signals from IG client sentiment data on either USD/CAD or gold, two of the most popular assets currently with retail traders. However, the numbers point to . . . → Read More: Market Sentiment Data Negative for CHF, Neutral for CAD, Gold | Webinar

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD is little changed from the start of the year as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains reluctant to normalize monetary policy, but the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on June 16 is likely to sway the near-term outlook for the exchange rate as the central bank is . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Rate Stuck in Defined Range Ahead of Fed Meeting

Bitcoin Talking Points It was a little over a year ago that legendary Macro trader Paul Tudor Jones came out in support of Bitcoin in a very big way, highlighted in these articles in the piece entitled, Bitcoin Breakout: BTC to Fresh Highs, Near 10k as PTJ Makes Bull Case. Much has happened since . . . → Read More: Has Bitcoin Bottomed? PTJ Makes Crypto Bull Case (Again)

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS KEY POINTS: May consumer inflation expectations for the medium term climb to 4% from 3.4% in April. Rising inflation outlook can beget a vicious cycle and translate to higher observed inflation over the longer term. The New York Fed Survey does not provoke much volatility as the market remains focus on the . . . → Read More: Consumer Inflation Expectations Hit 4%, Dollar Unmoved as Traders Eye the Fed Meeting