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USD/CAD Rate Outlook Hinges on Federal Reserve Rate Decision

Canadian Dollar Talking Points

USD/CAD snaps the series of lower highs and lows from last week as commodity bloc currencies weaken against the Greenback, and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision is likely to sway the near-term outlook for the exchange rate as the central bank is expected to normalize monetary policy.

Advertisement . . . → Read More: USD/CAD Rate Outlook Hinges on Federal Reserve Rate Decision

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Gains as US Bond Yields Soar Ahead of Fed Liftoff

USD/JPY OUTLOOK: USD/JPY strengthened at the start of the week, buoyed by rising U.S. Treasury rates Earlier on the trading session, the 2-year and 10-year bond yields reached highs not seen since July 2019 The FOMC rate decision and forward guidance could boost the U.S. dollar in the near term

Most read: USD/JPY . . . → Read More: Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Gains as US Bond Yields Soar Ahead of Fed Liftoff

DAX (Germany40) Rips Through Resistance as European Equities Rise

DAX, Europe Talking Points: DAX40 recovers from recent sell-off but key psychological level of 14,000 holds bulls at bay European equities turn positive with German stocks leading the way Volatility remains heightened as investors continue to track developments in the Russia Ukraine war

European stocks have started the week on a positive note . . . → Read More: DAX (Germany40) Rips Through Resistance as European Equities Rise

Currencies DailyFX Analysts Are Most Bearish About

US Dollar Under Pressure as Consumers Raise Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations, US Dollar, USD, Federal Reserve – Talking Points US consumer inflation expectations rise to 6.0% in Jan. vs. 5.8% in Feb. Consumers expect food and energy prices to push higher US Dollar paring recent gains, trend higher remains in-tact pre-Fed

US consumer inflation expectations rose for 12 month and 36 month . . . → Read More: US Dollar Under Pressure as Consumers Raise Inflation Expectations

Weekly Fundamental US Dollar Forecast: How Many Fed Hikes are Coming?

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Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral But for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US Dollar‘s fundamental moorings appear to be less supportive. The 2s5s10s butterfly has receded to its narrowest spread since October 2021, a sign that the US Treasury yield curve has become less supportive of the US Dollar. According . . . → Read More: Weekly Fundamental US Dollar Forecast: How Many Fed Hikes are Coming?

Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, Hang Seng, US Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, Fed Hike, Ukraine

On Wall Street, sentiment soured this past week following another strong inflation print as February’s CPI gauge clocked in at 7.9% y/y. With prices continuing to climb at 40-year highs, boosting hawkish Federal Reserve monetary policy bets, futures tracking the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell 2.2%, 3.02% and 3.85% respectively . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, Hang Seng, US Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, Fed Hike, Ukraine

S&P 500 Index Faces More Headwinds as Inflation Soars, Ukraine Crisis Deepens

S&P 500 INDEX FORECAST: Bearish The S&P 500 index has fallen over 11% from its all-time high amid fears about Fed tightening The Ukraine crisis sent a wave of inflation around the globe, raising fears about stagflation Investors will be eyeing this week’s FOMC meeting for clues about the Fed’s take on prices and . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Index Faces More Headwinds as Inflation Soars, Ukraine Crisis Deepens

Brent Crude Oil Forecast: Markets Continue Search for Additional Supply

Brent Crude Oil Fundamental Forecast: Bullish Crude prices continue to sway back and forth on news headlines How effective will OPEC + spare capacity prove to be if utilized? Oil prices remains susceptible to upside risks in the absence of additional output Advertisement Oil Remains Susceptible to Headlines

Brent Crude oil prices continue . . . → Read More: Brent Crude Oil Forecast: Markets Continue Search for Additional Supply

EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Braces for Fed Tightening Next Week

EUR/USD ANALYSIS Fed interest rate decision in focus next week. Advertisement EURO FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BEARISH

The Euro zone is under pressure from rising inflation due to commodity supply constraints (of which monetary policy cannot rectify) as well as its reliance on Russia/Ukraine. This has only exacerbated the divergence between the Fed and ECB . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Braces for Fed Tightening Next Week

Gold Price Fundamental Forecast: FOMC to Take Backseat to Ukraine Risks

Gold Fundamental Forecast: Neutral Gold prices trim gains going into the weekend despite ongoing Ukrainian conflict FOMC set to raise rates by 25 bps but otherwise likely to take “wait and see” approach XAU/USD tailwinds to stay in place for now, but bulls may rest before next push higher Gold, XAU/USD, Ukraine, War, FOMC, . . . → Read More: Gold Price Fundamental Forecast: FOMC to Take Backseat to Ukraine Risks

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Resistance Holds Firm as Mid-Week Optimism Fades

Bitcoin Charts and Analysis Bitcoin (BTC) is back to this week’s opening levels. Resistance remains in charge for now.

Bitcoin’s price action this week has been fairly muted, apart from a small mid-week pump and dump, with BTC/USD back to within a couple of hundred dollars of this week’s open. The macro picture, . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Resistance Holds Firm as Mid-Week Optimism Fades

Australian Dollar Outlook is Caught in Commodities Whirlwind as Risks Kick In.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: NEUTRAL The Australian Dollar has been boosted and booted by commodity prices While the Fed is on the rate hike march, the RBA is locked in the barracks With risk sentiment starting to impact AUD, will it send AUD/USD lower?

The Australian Dollar has had a wild ride this week . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Outlook is Caught in Commodities Whirlwind as Risks Kick In.

Will Regulation Make BTC More Volatile? | tastytrade clips

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: GBP Risk Remains Lower Ahead of Fed & BoE

GBP/USDFUNDAMENTAL HIGHLIGHTS:

GBP/USD Risking a Break of 1.30 EUR & GBP Suffer From Rising Stagflation Concerns

GBP/USD Risking a Break of 1.30

The Bank of England is expected to deliver its third rate hike next week, however, while last month showed a surprise 5-4 vote split, narrowly missing a 50bps hike, . . . → Read More: GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: GBP Risk Remains Lower Ahead of Fed & BoE

Options Traders Eye Black Swan Events, New Book Has Tips on How to Trade Them

A so-called black swan event is improbable, unpredictable and catastrophic Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a black swan event A new options trading book by tastytrade’s Julia Spina offers ideas on trading black swan events

The Unlucky Investors Guide to Options Trading, ironically, eschews luck. “When you walk into a casino, the . . . → Read More: Options Traders Eye Black Swan Events, New Book Has Tips on How to Trade Them

Consumer Sentiment Drops to 10 Year Low on Inflation Concerns

University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Drops Below 60

For the first time I over 10 years the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey recorded a sub-sixty figure.

Customize and filter live economic data via our DaliyFX economic calendar

Consumer sentiment has dropped rather sharply since the start of 2022 . . . → Read More: Consumer Sentiment Drops to 10 Year Low on Inflation Concerns

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Drops on Blowout Jobs Report

CAD Price Analysis & News

USD/CAD Drops on Blowout Canadian Jobs Data Data Affirms BoC Hiking Cycle

Canadian Jobs Report Recap

The Canadian employment report showed a jobs increase of 336.6k, significantly better than the 160k expected. This report is very much a post-lockdown boom, given the sizeable jobs loss in . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Drops on Blowout Jobs Report

Gold Slumps, Indices Jump on Tweet of ‘Certain Positive Shifts’ in Ukraine Talks

Gold Price (XAU/USD), Chart, and Analysis

Risk markets turn sharply higher. Gold slumps into support. Tread very carefully when trading on tweets.

Risk markets jumped higher Friday mid-morning after a tweet attributed to Russian President Vladimir Putin, via Interfax, suggested that there are ‘certain positive shifts in talks with Ukraine’ without expanding . . . → Read More: Gold Slumps, Indices Jump on Tweet of ‘Certain Positive Shifts’ in Ukraine Talks

Japanese Yen Price Forecast: USD/JPY Topside Breakout Could Extend Further

USD/JPYAnalysis USD/JPY topside breakout appears ahead of Fed and BoJ interest rate meetings Japan’s dependency on oil imports softens the Yen’s outlook. USD/JPY key technical levels analyzed – 120.00 in sight Advertisement Yen Weakness and Oil Dependency Favors USD/JPY Breakout

The Japanese Yen has been a rather frustrating pair to watch due to . . . → Read More: Japanese Yen Price Forecast: USD/JPY Topside Breakout Could Extend Further

German Stock Index (DAX40) Remains Vulnerable to Inflationary Fears

Europe, Germany 40, DAX Talking Points: DAX 40 retreats, inflationary fears resurface as Russia Ukraine conflict remains unresolved The war between Russia and Ukraine remains a prominent catalyst for German stocks ECB President Christine Lagarde juggles between soaring prices and economic growth Germany 40 (DAX) Technical Analysis

The Dax Index (Germany 40) has . . . → Read More: German Stock Index (DAX40) Remains Vulnerable to Inflationary Fears

Russell 2000 Crippled by Rampant US Inflation & Stalled Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks

RUSSELL 2000 FORECAST: The Russell 2000 tumbles as U.S. inflation rises at the fastest pace since 1982 Lack of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine also weighs on sentiment, accelerating the sell-off on Wall Street The Russell 2000 near-term outlook remains bearish from a technical perspective

Most Read: US Dollar Price . . . → Read More: Russell 2000 Crippled by Rampant US Inflation & Stalled Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks

Currencies DailyFX Analysts Are Most Bullish About

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DailyFX analysts give their expert predictions and their 2022 Q1 forecasts to help you with your trading strategy and analysis, minimizing risk and maximizing returns. Predictions our analysts offer are based on fundamental factors such as economic outlook, capital flows and trade balances, or technical indicators such . . . → Read More: Currencies DailyFX Analysts Are Most Bullish About

FTSE 100 Technical Analysis: UK Stocks Humbled After Steep Rally

FTSE 100 News and Analysis FTSE 100 loses grip, Ukraine and Russia fail to reach an agreement UK oil ban and elevated inflation weigh on FTSE 100 FTSE 100 support and resistance remain ‘trapped’ between key technical levels FTSE 100 Pressured by Inflationary Fears

Global risk sentiment soured once again after a brief . . . → Read More: FTSE 100 Technical Analysis: UK Stocks Humbled After Steep Rally

US Dollar Price Action Setups Post-CPI: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

US Dollar Talking Points:

The US Dollar has finally started to cool after an aggressive topside run brought in fresh yearly highs earlier this week. As looked at on Monday, there’s a combination of factors pushing the bid in the USD, key of which has been the expectation for the Federal Reserve to . . . → Read More: US Dollar Price Action Setups Post-CPI: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Soars as Ukraine Crisis Cools, but ECB Could Kill Momentum

EUR/USD OUTLOOK: EUR/USD surges more than 1.5% amid risk-on sentiment across financial markets Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe seem to be easing, but the situation could change again in the blink of an eye, as the crisis is far from resolved The ECB is on tap Thursday. The central bank is expected to keep . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Soars as Ukraine Crisis Cools, but ECB Could Kill Momentum

Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Tech Holds Key Support as US CPI Comes Into Focus

Nasdaq 100, Ukraine, Fed, US CPI – Talking Points Nasdaq 100 holds key support around 13,100 as inflation data looms Fed policy meeting set for next week, hawkish bets have eased

The Nasdaq 100 traded higher early on Wednesday as the tech-heavy index continues to hold key support around 13,100. US equity benchmarks . . . → Read More: Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Tech Holds Key Support as US CPI Comes Into Focus

All Eyes on EUR/USD | John Kicklighter and Pete Mulmat on Market Themes

Every month, John Kicklighter, DailyFX’s Chief Strategist at DailyFX, and Pete Mulmat, CEO of IG US sit down to talk about some of their favorite FX pairs. The two touched on the Ukraine crisis, haven assets, and the macro-outlook for trade.

USD/JPY

John began the show by touching on the concept . . . → Read More: All Eyes on EUR/USD | John Kicklighter and Pete Mulmat on Market Themes

How DailyFX Analysts Expect Risk Assets To Perform In Q1 of 2022

USD Breaking News: Diplomatic Solution Overshadows US JOLTs Job Openings Beat

U.S. DOLLAR ANALYSIS US JOLTs Openings (JAN) – ACT: 11.263m; EST: 10.925m Advertisement DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

JOLTs smashes forecasts!

The U.S. dollar index dismissed positivity around the US JOLTs job openings release at 11.263m which significantly beat estimates.

Source: DailyFX economic calendar

This echoes last week’s Non-Farm Payroll . . . → Read More: USD Breaking News: Diplomatic Solution Overshadows US JOLTs Job Openings Beat

Top Trade and Market Opportunities In Q1 of 2022

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Blasts Through Resistance & Sets New 2022 High

CANADIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK: USD/CAD pushes higher, breaks above the February peak and sets a new 2022 high around the 1.2900 level The Canadian dollar fails to capitalize on the vertical move in oil prices as cautious sentiment reduces appetite for riskier currencies WTI and Brent soar more than 6% as the U.S. and the . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Blasts Through Resistance & Sets New 2022 High

FTSE 100 Forecast: UK Benchmark Halts Recent Skid Despite Risks to EU, Sluggish Wall Street Trade

FTSE 100, European Union, ECB, Russia, Ukraine – Talking Points FTSE halts recent slump as EU looks to bolster energy, defense spending UK PM Boris Johnson announces ban on imports of Russian oil For technical levels on the FTSE 100, please click here Advertisement

The FTSE 100 looked quite perky on Tuesday as . . . → Read More: FTSE 100 Forecast: UK Benchmark Halts Recent Skid Despite Risks to EU, Sluggish Wall Street Trade

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Forecasts: It's a Mess

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Talking Points:

U.S. stocks are trading on their back foot as the world continues to diverge. Equities have been in a fragile state for most of the year but the reason for why has suddenly shifted. As the door opened into 2022 it became clear that the Fed . . . → Read More: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Forecasts: It's a Mess

US Trade Deficit Reaches $89.7 Billion – Highest on Record

Balance of Trade (JAN) = $-89.7B

Exports (JAN) = $224.4B

Imports (JAN) = $314.1B

Customize and filter live economic data via our DaliyFX economic calendar

The US now has the largest trade deficit on record as imports for January rose $3.8 billion more than in December; while exports . . . → Read More: US Trade Deficit Reaches $89.7 Billion – Highest on Record

FTSE 100 Struggles as Soaring Oil Prices Spark Stagflation Fears, Key Support in Play

FTSE 100 OUTLOOK: FTSE 100 struggles at the start of the week amid deteriorating investor sentiment The Ukraine war dominates market psychology and limits appetite for risk assets Rising commodity prices, especially oil, are likely to exacerbate inflationary pressures and weaken economic activity in Europe, casting a shadow over the regional stock market

. . . → Read More: FTSE 100 Struggles as Soaring Oil Prices Spark Stagflation Fears, Key Support in Play

FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: China Inflation Rate, Loans; ECB Rate Decision; US Inflation Rate; UK GDP; Canada Jobs Report

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Advertisement FX Week Ahead Overview: The European Central Bank is likely to strike a dovish tone this week as the sanctions levied by the EU and the US against Russia has stoked a liquidity crunch. US inflation rates are anticipated to set new cycle highs, but that won’t do . . . → Read More: FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: China Inflation Rate, Loans; ECB Rate Decision; US Inflation Rate; UK GDP; Canada Jobs Report

DAX 40 Price Analysis: German DAX Slides as European Stocks Tank

Europe, Germany 40, DAX Talking Points:

DAX 40 falters as bears drive prices below 13000 The war between Russia and Ukraine remains a prominent catalyst for European indices Oil prices surge amid prospects of a Russia oil ban, European stocks sink

European stocks are having a difficult time staying afloat as the . . . → Read More: DAX 40 Price Analysis: German DAX Slides as European Stocks Tank

Top Markets DailyFX Analysts Are Most Excited About In Q1 of 2022

Cable, EUR/GBP Sink to Multi-Year Lows – New Key Levels to Watch

GBP/USD (Cable), EUR/GBP Analysis Cable (GBP/USD) sinks below significant zone of support as the liquid, safe-haven US dollar soars European economy susceptible to double-pronged squeeze: demand and supply EUR/GBP drops below 2020 low: New key technical levels analyzed Advertisement Cable Vulnerability Accelerates

GBP/USD has been trending lower since the 2021 high, albeit in . . . → Read More: Cable, EUR/GBP Sink to Multi-Year Lows – New Key Levels to Watch

Markets Week Ahead: Euro, DAX 40, FTSE 100, Ukraine, ECB, Gold, Crude Oil, US CPI

Global market sentiment was smashed this past week as Russia’s attack on Ukraine stretched beyond the first week. European markets were left particularly vulnerable. It was the worst week for Germany’s DAX 40 index since March 2020, falling over 10%. This is as the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 index sank 7.6%, the most . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Euro, DAX 40, FTSE 100, Ukraine, ECB, Gold, Crude Oil, US CPI

DAX 40, FTSE 100, Nasdaq 100 Face Perfect Storm: Ukraine, ECB, US CPI, Fed, Uncertainty

Stocks Fundamental Forecast: Bearish DAX 40, FTSE 100 underperformed Wall Street as Russia attack on Ukraine prolonged All eyes are on the ECB for European markets, will it take a less hawkish approach next? Things are not much better for the Nasdaq 100 with US inflation data to remain hot

Global stocks markets . . . → Read More: DAX 40, FTSE 100, Nasdaq 100 Face Perfect Storm: Ukraine, ECB, US CPI, Fed, Uncertainty

Crude Oil Forecast: Oil Prices Face Headline Risk – Volatility to Persist

CRUDE OIL HIGHLIGHTS: Headline Risk Remains Elevated for Crude Oil Traders Iran Nuclear Deal Also in Focus Headline Risk Remains Elevated for Crude Oil Traders

Another bout of risk aversion stemmed from reports that Russian troops had seized Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, which in turn saw oil prices retain a bid, . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Forecast: Oil Prices Face Headline Risk – Volatility to Persist

Weekly Fundamental Euro Forecast: Further Losses Expected

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Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Bearish The Euro just experienced one of its worst weeks in years: versus the US Dollar, since March 2020; versus the Swiss Franc, since January 2015. ECB rate expectations are in retreat, and liquidity conditions have deteriorated substantially – neither of which are good for the . . . → Read More: Weekly Fundamental Euro Forecast: Further Losses Expected

Gold Price Forecast: Rising US Consumer Prices to Keep Bullion Afloat

Gold Price Talking Points

The price of gold trades to a fresh weekly high ($1965) after showing a limited reaction to the better-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, and the update to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may keep the precious metal afloat as inflation is expected to pick up for the . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: Rising US Consumer Prices to Keep Bullion Afloat

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: DXY Price Depends on Euro Amid Ukraine Tensions as CPI Nears

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Neutral US Dollar DXY index hit a fresh 2022 record after the Euro sank on tensions in Ukraine Greenback strength persisted after Fed Chair Powell tempered bets on a 50 bps hike A lull in hostilities from Russia may see haven flows reverse course and drag USD

The US . . . → Read More: US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: DXY Price Depends on Euro Amid Ukraine Tensions as CPI Nears

Ukraine in Crisis: Taking Stock of Major Market Moves

Russia, Ukraine News and Analysis Fire near Europe’s largest nuclear plant sparks panic in European markets NFP Figure lifts US Dollar as economic data returns to the fore Oil and gold rise as markets prepare for the weekend Advertisement Fire Near Europe’s Largest Nuclear Plant Sparks Panic

European markets woke up to worrying . . . → Read More: Ukraine in Crisis: Taking Stock of Major Market Moves

Australian Dollar Outlook: Commodities Rule the Roost for AUD.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: NEUTRAL/BULLISH The Australian Dollar has been boosted by higher commodity prices A lift in commodity volumes could pick up further to replace Russian supplies Global investors may need to re-weight portfolios. Will AUD/USD benefit?

The Australian Dollar has gained ground in the past week as the turmoil from the . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Outlook: Commodities Rule the Roost for AUD.

Technical Levels DailyFX Analysts Are Currently Watching

British Pound Forecast (GBPUSD) Sterling Helpless in The Face of US Dollar Dominance

GBP/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis The US dollar continues to flex its muscles, brushing Sterling aside. GBP/USD in freefall as an important multi-month support zone nears. EUR/GBP below 0.8250 as the Euro weakens further

As we close out the week, the overarching driver of price action in the FX market is US dollar . . . → Read More: British Pound Forecast (GBPUSD) Sterling Helpless in The Face of US Dollar Dominance

Dow Jones Technical Analysis: Wall Street Tests Support After NFP

Dow Jones Index (DJI), USD, NFP Talking Points: Russia and Ukraine remain at the forefront of risk appetite Positive NFP report overshadowed by geopolitics Fibonacci levels on the Dow Jones are showing key spots of potential support and resistance NFP Grapples With Russia Ukraine Conflict

US Stocks have struggled to gain traction despite . . . → Read More: Dow Jones Technical Analysis: Wall Street Tests Support After NFP

3 Key Tips to Becoming A Successful Trader

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Ask an experienced trader about mistakes she’s made in the market, and she’ll probably be able to point to a bunch of them and to the scars that help her remember how to avoid them in the future. There’s the improvisation approach – a trader who hears an . . . → Read More: 3 Key Tips to Becoming A Successful Trader

Non-farm Payrolls Prints at +678k, USD in Focus After Fresh Yearly Highs

NFP, Non-farm Payrolls, USD Talking Points: This morning brings the release of Non-farm Payrolls data for the month of January. The US Dollar jumped to a fresh yearly high ahead of the release after a destructive evening in Europe, with the continent’s largest nuclear plant undergoing attack. This was a strong report, with headline . . . → Read More: Non-farm Payrolls Prints at +678k, USD in Focus After Fresh Yearly Highs

Gold Extends its Haven Rally as Risk Markets Sour Further

Gold Price (XAU/USD), Chart, and Analysis Gold shines in risk-averse markets. US NFPs may no longer move the dial.

The war in Ukraine continues to roil a range of risk markets with European equities currently the sector hit hardest. The DAX 40 has touched a fresh 15-month low while the CAC 30 has . . . → Read More: Gold Extends its Haven Rally as Risk Markets Sour Further

DAX & FTSE Plummet as Outlook for European Equities Deteriorates

DAX 40 and FTSE New and Analysis Fire at Ukrainian nuclear power station has markets on edge ahead of the weekend FTSE 100 on track for worst week in over a year, eyes 7000 DAX sell-off sees the index around 10% lower for the week Advertisement

European equities have been particularly hard hit . . . → Read More: DAX & FTSE Plummet as Outlook for European Equities Deteriorates

Volatility – VIX Wavers Near the 30-Handle as Geopolitics Dominates Price Action

VIX INDEX OUTLOOK: The VIX has retraced from last week’s high, but it is struggling to break below the 30 handle decisively Geopolitical tensions may spark volatility on and off, but any explosive upward movement may be seen as an opportunity to position for a reversal Over the medium term, sentiment is likely to . . . → Read More: Volatility – VIX Wavers Near the 30-Handle as Geopolitics Dominates Price Action

Dollar Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Range-Bound Ahead of NFP

Japanese Yen, US Dollar, NFP Talking Points:

Over recent weeks, the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF) have remained resilient against their major counterparts as the war between Russia and Ukraine remains at the forefront of risk-sentiment.

Since September last year, increased pressure on the Federal Reserve . . . → Read More: Dollar Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Range-Bound Ahead of NFP

US Dollar Price Action Seutps Pre-NFP: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

US Dollar, NFP Talking Points: The US Dollar is at a big zone of long-term resistance after setting a fresh yearly high yesterday. Tomorrow brings Non-farm Payrolls out of the US and EUR/USD is the mirror image of USD at the moment, staring down a spot of long-term support. GBP/USD and AUD/USD, however, may . . . → Read More: US Dollar Price Action Seutps Pre-NFP: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

How Current Market Events Will Impact Q1 of 2022

US Dollar Hovers at Session Highs as February Services PMI Data Disappoints

US Services PMI, Jerome Powell, Fed, US Dollar – Talking Points US ISM Feb Services PMI 56.5 vs. Jan 59.9, 61 est. USD easing slightly from session highs above 97.60 Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues to testify in Congress Advertisement

The ISM Services PMI report for February showed a slowdown in the US . . . → Read More: US Dollar Hovers at Session Highs as February Services PMI Data Disappoints

Canadian Dollar Treads Water Ahead of BoC Rate Decision. How Will USD/CAD React?

The Bank of Canada’s rate decision but, more importantly, its forward guidance could reinforce the medium-term bullish outlook for the Canadian dollar.

CANADIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK:

The Bank of Canada will announce its March monetary policy decision tomorrow Investors expect the central bank to raise the overnight rate by 25 basis . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Treads Water Ahead of BoC Rate Decision. How Will USD/CAD React?

Oil Breaks Out to Fresh Highs as Commodities Remain Bid

Oil, WTI (US Crude), Brent Crude Talking Points: Oil remains supported as Russia pursues war on Ukraine Sanctions against Russia drive Oil prices higher Inflation outlook remains a key concern for central banks including the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) Russia, Ukraine and Oil – Can Oil Maintain its Bullish Trajectory?

The . . . → Read More: Oil Breaks Out to Fresh Highs as Commodities Remain Bid

Dollar to Ruble: What Happens Now?

Dollar to Ruble: What Happens Now?

Dollar to Ruble refers to the US Dollar and Russian Ruble exchange rate. The pair represents two of the most powerful economies in the world—the United States and Russia. Dollar to Ruble, as a currency pair, proves very sensitive to crude oil fluctuations because both countries . . . → Read More: Dollar to Ruble: What Happens Now?

US Dollar Continues to Climb on Strong February PMI Print, Russia-Ukraine Tensions

US Dollar, US PMIs, Russia, Ukraine – Talking Points US ISM Feb Manufacturing PMI 58.6 Vs Jan 57.6 USD continues to gain, Dollar Index back above 97 US Dollar benefitting from safe haven flows and strong data

The US manufacturing sector continued to strengthen in February, with the ISM Manufacturing survey coming in . . . → Read More: US Dollar Continues to Climb on Strong February PMI Print, Russia-Ukraine Tensions

Breaking News: German Inflation (5.1%) Helps Failing EUR/USD

EUR/USD ANALYSIS German CPI – ACT: 5.1%; EST: 5.1% Advertisement GERMAN CPI TICKS HIGHER

German inflation figures came in line with expectations with significant advances from the energy component of the measure. With geopolitics fueling rising oil prices, inflation for the reliant Euro zone is likely to remain elevated.

Source: . . . → Read More: Breaking News: German Inflation (5.1%) Helps Failing EUR/USD

FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: RBA Rate Decision; Eurozone Inflation Rate; BOC Rate Decision; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; US NFP

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Advertisement FX Week Ahead Overview: The Reserve Bank of Australia will continue its hawkish posturing without raising rates as it appears to be staying on hold until after the Australian federal elections in May. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is widely anticipated to start its rate hike cycle with a . . . → Read More: FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: RBA Rate Decision; Eurozone Inflation Rate; BOC Rate Decision; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; US NFP

Europe and America Unite as the Ukraine-Russia War Weighs on EUR/USD

Euro, US Dollar Talking Points EUR/USD slides back to support, Ukraine and Russia drive safe-haven currencies EUR loses grip temporarily ,Germany intervention and exacerbated supply constraints pushes energy prices (oil and gas) higher USD safe-haven appeal drives price action lower but EUR/USD bears fail to break 1.110

EUR/USD prices have plunged back to . . . → Read More: Europe and America Unite as the Ukraine-Russia War Weighs on EUR/USD

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Forecasts: Bears Brewing as Gaps Fill

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Talking Points: Stocks are bouncing after futures started the week with another gap-down. US equities are in the process of filling gaps, raising the question of whether bears make a re-appearance at some point later today. While Russia-Ukraine dominates the headlines the economic implication in the U.S. is that . . . → Read More: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Forecasts: Bears Brewing as Gaps Fill

Gold Prices Lack Upside Follow Through, Oil Price Spike Fades

Gold, Oil Analysis and News:

Markets Respond to Latest Russia-Ukraine Fallout Gold Lacks Upside Follow Through Oil Paring Opening Gap

Geopolitics remains the core focus for investors as financial markets digest the fallout from this weekend’s events, in which the US and the EU, alongside other Western States removed selected Russian banks . . . → Read More: Gold Prices Lack Upside Follow Through, Oil Price Spike Fades

Russian Ruble Rate (USDRUB) Slumps, Russian Equities Hit Hard on SWIFT Expulsion

US Dollar Price, Chart, and Analysis

The Russian Ruble slumps despite a massive central bank rate hike. The Russian stock exchange (MOEX) remains shuttered on Monday.

The Bank of Russian more than doubled its bank rate earlier today to 20%, from 9.5%, as the central bank stepped in to try and prevent . . . → Read More: Russian Ruble Rate (USDRUB) Slumps, Russian Equities Hit Hard on SWIFT Expulsion

Russia Set for Currency Crisis as EU, US Limit Access to SWIFT, Freeze CBR Assets

Advertisement Russian Ruble Outlook: The response by the European Union and the United States to the Russian invasion of Ukraine escalated dramatically over the weekend. More impactful than limiting some Russian banks access to SWIFT, the freeze of assets held by the Central Bank of Russia is far more impactful. A currency crisis . . . → Read More: Russia Set for Currency Crisis as EU, US Limit Access to SWIFT, Freeze CBR Assets

Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, Gold, Crude Oil, Euro, Ukraine, Powell Testifies, NFPs

Market sentiment impressively recovered this past week despite Russian President Vladimir Putin attacking Ukraine. On Wall Street, Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures performed about -0.1%, +0.8% and +1.3% respectively. At one point, the latter was setting course for the worst month since November 2008. Equities were still in the red . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, Gold, Crude Oil, Euro, Ukraine, Powell Testifies, NFPs

US Dollar Outlook: DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD Key Technical Levels

US Dollar Technical Outlook: Neutral USD strength dissipates temporarily as investors price in rising geopolitical tensions GBP/USD falls back to critical support EUR/USD threatens trendline resistance

The US Dollar has maintained a bullish stance as prospects of a rate hike and an increase in risk-off sentiment supported the safe haven greenback.

Following . . . → Read More: US Dollar Outlook: DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD Key Technical Levels

Weekly Fundamental Gold Price Forecast: World War 3 or Bust

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Weekly Fundamental Gold Price Forecast: Neutral Unless NATO is drawn into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there’s good reason to believe that gold prices have hit their high for 2022. Gold price rallies may not have much lasting power in an environment defined by rising real interest rates; the Federal Reserve will start . . . → Read More: Weekly Fundamental Gold Price Forecast: World War 3 or Bust

Crude Oil Prices Scratch $100 as Ukraine Crisis Deepens Supply Concerns

CRUDE OIL FORECAST: Bullish Oil prices pulled back from Thursday’s highs as Western sanctions on Russia exempted oil exports, SWIFT access Lingering geopolitical tensions and concerns over supply constraints may continue to buoy energy prices Iran nuclear talks and US coordination to release strategic reserves are key events to watch out for

. . . → Read More: Crude Oil Prices Scratch $100 as Ukraine Crisis Deepens Supply Concerns

Canadian Dollar Forecast: Geopolitics & Bank of Canada to Set the Tone for USD/CAD

CANADIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK: SLIGHTLY BULLISH Geopolitical tensions will continue to dominate near-term price action If the crisis in Eastern Europe subsides and sentiment improves, high-beta currencies such as the Canadian dollar could strengthen The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision could also boost the loonie, pushing USD/CAD lower

Most read: US Dollar . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Forecast: Geopolitics & Bank of Canada to Set the Tone for USD/CAD

US Dollar Forecast: USD Rally to Persist on Upbeat US NFP Report

US Dollar Talking Points

The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to a fresh yearly high (97.74) as heightening Russia-Ukraine tensions appear to be spurring a flight to safety, and fresh data prints coming out of the US may keep the Greenback afloat as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is anticipated to show . . . → Read More: US Dollar Forecast: USD Rally to Persist on Upbeat US NFP Report

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Continues to Rally, Riding a Wave of Renewed Risk Appetite

Bitcoin and Ethereum Charts and Analysis Bitcoin looking at a fresh attempt to break $39.6k resistance Ethereum shadowing Bitcoin for now

A sharp rally in Bitcoin, and a wide range of other cryptocurrency markets, has seen nearly all of this week’s sharp losses erased over the last 24 hours. The Russian invasion . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Continues to Rally, Riding a Wave of Renewed Risk Appetite

Australian Dollar Week Ahead: Tough Road Awaits Amid Ukraine, RBA and NFPs

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Australian Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Australian Dollar impressively outperforms despite Ukraine tensions The road ahead for Aussie is filled with numerous obstacles to watch I will be covering the RBA rate decision LIVE at 3:15 GMT March 1st

Despite a week filled with market volatility as geopolitical . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Week Ahead: Tough Road Awaits Amid Ukraine, RBA and NFPs

Pound Sterling (GBP) Forecast: Reflecting on Volatile End to the Week

Sterling Fundamental Forecast: Slightly Bullish UK Prime Minister releases sanctions on Russian banks and Russian billionaires UK consumers under pressure as energy, taxes and NHI contributions all set to increase Large speculators flip net-long, what does this mean for the Pound? Advertisement Boris Johnson Announces Sanctions on Russia

In line with other NATO . . . → Read More: Pound Sterling (GBP) Forecast: Reflecting on Volatile End to the Week

USD/ZAR Forecast: US Dollar Goes to War with Resilient Rand

RAND, DOLLAR ANALYSIS

Visit DailyFX Education to discover how to trade the impact of Politics on Global Markets

Rand Resilience Holds Firm Despite Elevated Geopolitical Risks

USD strength has recently weighed on the volatile Rand as the war between Russia and Ukraine remains at the forefront of risk sentiment.

Despite . . . → Read More: USD/ZAR Forecast: US Dollar Goes to War with Resilient Rand

S&P 500 Forecast: Invasions Have Often Been Bullish

S&P 500, USD Analysis

Gold & Oil Reverse Spike Invasions Have Often Been Bullish for the S&P 500 USD Pullback May See Demand Return To High-Beta Currencies Agile Trading to Persist as Russia/Ukraine Conflict Remains a Fluid Situation

Financial markets remain fixated on the fluid situation in Ukraine. Meanwhile, investors will be . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Forecast: Invasions Have Often Been Bullish

US Preview: Gold, Oil and Equities Respond to Sanctions and Russian Advances

Gold, Oil and Equity News and Analysis: Sanctions imposed on Russia do nothing to halt further Russian military advances Gold and Oil consolidate after yesterday’s massive rise and immediate drop in prices History shows us that U.S. equity markets could see upside potential in the coming weeks despite recent decline Advertisement Price Action and . . . → Read More: US Preview: Gold, Oil and Equities Respond to Sanctions and Russian Advances

Crude Oil Forecast: Rising Shipping Costs, Letters of Credit & Sanctions

BRENT CRUDE OIL (LCOc1) ANALYSIS Upside pressure on crude oil. An already tight market being exacerbated by war. Russian oil and gas still flowing into Europe. CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

Brent crude breached the psychological $100/barrel mark yesterday following the Russian invasion into Ukraine. Expectedly, markets reacted accordingly and drive energy prices up . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Forecast: Rising Shipping Costs, Letters of Credit & Sanctions

EU Economic Sentiment Edges Higher but Consumer Confidence Dips

Eurozone Economic Outlook Fairly Unchanged Consumer Confidence continued to decline, coming in at -8.8, as expected. Overall Economic Sentiment however, rose (114) above figure produced for December and January Industrial Sentiment dipped slightly when compared to the forecast but rose above last month’s figure (14).

Customize and filter live economic data via . . . → Read More: EU Economic Sentiment Edges Higher but Consumer Confidence Dips

VIX Soars on Geopolitics, but ‘Buy the Rumor, Sell the News’ May Lead to Reversal

VIX INDEX OUTLOOK: The VIX spikes higher after Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine Risk assets decline in the early trade, though the sell-off appears to be moderating A lot of bad news has been priced in already, so we shouldn’t rule out a relief rally in the near term once traders realize . . . → Read More: VIX Soars on Geopolitics, but ‘Buy the Rumor, Sell the News’ May Lead to Reversal

Crude Oil Outlook: Russia Invasion of Ukraine Drives Oil Above $100

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Crude Oil, US Crude (WTI), Brent Talking Points Crude oil prices surge as Russian troops invade Ukraine Brent crude breaks $100 per barrel, is WTI next? Higher energy costs exacerbate fears of rising inflation placing the Fed under additional pressure

As Russian troops continue to sweep through Ukraine, fears . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Outlook: Russia Invasion of Ukraine Drives Oil Above $100

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Forecasts: Stocks Rocked as Russia Invades

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Talking Points:

Stocks are getting hammered this morning as Russia has crossed the line on an Ukrainian invasion. We’ve already written quite a bit on the topic at DailyFX: In this article I want to look at U.S. equities and the possible scenarios to work with.

. . . → Read More: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Forecasts: Stocks Rocked as Russia Invades

US Morning Brief: Everything You Need to Know as Russia Invades Ukraine

Gold, USD, US Treasuries, S&P 500 and Crude Oil Update: Russia carries out multi-directional invasion of Ukraine Gold, US dollar and other safe-havens receive a massive boost Oil trades above $100 while equity markets sell off Advertisement Russia Invades Ukraine from Multiple Sides

If you are waking up in the US this morning, . . . → Read More: US Morning Brief: Everything You Need to Know as Russia Invades Ukraine

BTC/USD Update: Bitcoin Bleeds as Russian Troops Invade Ukraine

Bitcoin, Ether, USD Talking Points Bitcoin prices plunge as risk sentiment sours, Ethereum and alt-coins follow suite USD benefits from safe-haven appeal as Russian troops enter Ukraine Technical levels provide support and resistance but geopolitics remain the primary driver of price action

Visit the DailyFX Educational Center to discover how to trade the . . . → Read More: BTC/USD Update: Bitcoin Bleeds as Russian Troops Invade Ukraine

Gold vs BTC: Risk-off Assets In the Ukraine Crisis

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“When the market looks for safety. In my mind, what the market is looking for, first and foremost, is liquidity. Because liquidity dulls volatility. The more liquid something is, the less erratic it moves. And from that perspective, there is really no substitute for U.S. government debt . . . → Read More: Gold vs BTC: Risk-off Assets In the Ukraine Crisis

Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen Price Outlook: USD/CHF, USD/JPY Key Levels

CHF, JPY, USD, Russia-Ukraine Talking Points Will Russia-Ukraine tensions overshadow rate hikes? USD/JPY consolidates amid mixed sentiment USD/CHF remains within the confines of a potential symmetrical triangle Can Russia-Ukraine tensions support safe-haven currencies?

Safe-haven currencies JPY, CHF and USD have recently benefited from an increase in the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, allowing . . . → Read More: Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen Price Outlook: USD/CHF, USD/JPY Key Levels

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Gains Facing Russian and USD Month End Risks

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Analysis and News:

EUR/USD Not Out of the Woods Yet USD Has Potential For Another Month End Boost EUR/USD Short Term Gains Limited Amid Russian Risks and Potential USD Month End Demand

Thus far a relatively sanguine response in the FX space to the first round of sanctions on Russia. . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Gains Facing Russian and USD Month End Risks

AUS, NZD Price Forecast: Why the Australasian Currencies are Surging Right Now

RBNZ, NZD, AUD Analysis: RBNZ hikes and foresees rates rising higher for longer than anticipated Risk-associated AUD surges despite geopolitical uncertainty, Russian sanctions Large speculators’ NZD and AUD positioning remains net-short Reserve Bank of New Zealand Raised the OCR Rate to 1.00%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) voted to raise the . . . → Read More: AUS, NZD Price Forecast: Why the Australasian Currencies are Surging Right Now

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) Latest – Trimming Recent Losses, Hurdles Lie Ahead

Bitcoin (BTC) is paring recent losses but it may struggle to push appreciably higher as strong resistance lies ahead.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Charts and Analysis

$39.6k – When support turns to resistance. Ethereum (ETH) picking up a bid.

Risk-on markets are picking up a small bid this morning as traders digest . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) Latest – Trimming Recent Losses, Hurdles Lie Ahead

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Forecasts: Bear Bounce Nearly Erased

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Talking Points:

The Nasdaq 100 set a fresh eight-month-low yesterday, even as US equity markets were closed in observance of President’s day. As many had predicted, the day after the Winter Olympics finished in Beijing was also the first that Russia sent tanks into Ukraine, albeit under the . . . → Read More: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Forecasts: Bear Bounce Nearly Erased

Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.1300

EUR/USD Price Setup: EUR/USD bounces off support at 1.1300, German Ifo business climate lifts the Euro Developments in the Russia-Ukraine crisis continue to drive sentiment Price action edges higher following the reduction in expectations of a 50 basis point rate hike at the March Fed meeting. Advertisement

EUR/USD prices have remained resilient despite . . . → Read More: Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.1300

Crude Oil Jumps as Russian Troops Enter Ukraine, Oil Eyes $100 a Barrel

Crude Oil Price, Chart, and Analysis

Oil soars as Russia turns up the political heat. Supply fears will likely drive oil prices ever higher.

For a list of all market-moving data releases and events see the DailyFX Economic Calendar

Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday recognized breakaway Ukrainian republics Donetsk and Luhansk . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Jumps as Russian Troops Enter Ukraine, Oil Eyes $100 a Barrel

EU Stocks, DAX: European Stocks on the Brink of Technical Collapse

EU Stocks, DAX, Russia-Ukraine Analysis: Western sanctions headed for Russia after troops deployed to eastern Ukraine EU Stocks rebounds off crucial March 2020 (Covid) support level DAX attempting to pullback after breakdown of key support Advertisement Sanctions Enroute as Russia Mobilizes Troops to Donbas Region

The US, UK, Japan and European allies are . . . → Read More: EU Stocks, DAX: European Stocks on the Brink of Technical Collapse

British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Dips, EUR/GBP Holding the Lows

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Analysis and News:

Russian-Ukraine Conflict Continues to Drive Market Sentiment BoE Hawk on the Wires, However, the Case for a 50bps Hike Fades Russian-Ukraine Conflict Continues to Drive Market Sentiment

Markets remain fixated on the rising tensions between Russia and the Ukraine, which took a turn for the worse yesterday . . . → Read More: British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Dips, EUR/GBP Holding the Lows