Bitcoin’s (BTC) failure to rise above the critical $40,000 to $42,000 resistance zone is keeping crypto traders on tenterhooks. Some analysts view the sharp rebound from $31,000 level as a sign of accumulation at lower levels while others believe the failure to cross above the overhead resistance indicates that Bitcoin is still not out of the woods yet.
JPMorgan’s cryptocurrency market analysts, led by global market strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, pointed out that after the recent fall, the Bitcoin futures market has shifted from contango to backwardation for the first time since 2018. The analysts believe this is a warning of a possible bear market, similar to the one seen in 2018.
While Bitcoin’s price remains subdued, one of the fundamental reasons to own Bitcoin received a shot in the arm when the U.S. inflation numbers rose to their highest levels since 2008. If inflation remains high, institutional investors may consider investing in Bitcoin to hedge their portfolios.
What are the levels that may suggest the downtrend could be over? Let’s analyze the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin turned down from the resistance line on June 10 but the bears have not been able to sustain the price down below the 20-day exponential moving average ($36,604). This suggests that buyers are attempting to defend the 20-day EMA.
If buyers propel the price above the resistance line, it will nullify the developing bearish descending triangle pattern. The failure of a bearish setup is a bullish sign as it traps several aggressive bears who are forced to close their short positions, resulting in a short squeeze.
That could result in a rally to $42,451.67 and then to the 50-day simple moving average ($45,271). Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from $42,451.67, the BTC/USDT pair could correct to $31,000 and consolidate in this large range for a few days.
The trend will shift in favor of the bears if the pair turns down from the current level and breaks below the $31,000 to $28,000 support zone.
Ether (ETH) rose above the 20-day EMA ($2,581) on June 9 but the bulls could not build upon this strength. The price again turned down on June 10, suggesting that bears are selling on every minor rally.
If bears sink and sustain the price below the triangle, the ETH/USDT pair could witness renewed selling that could pull the price down to $2,079 and then to $1,728.74.
However, the 20-day EMA has flattened out and the relative strength index (RSI) has been taking support near 40, suggesting a range-bound action in the short term.
If the price turns up from the current level, the pair may move up to the 20-day EMA and then extend its stay inside the triangle for a few more days. A breakout and close above the 50-day SMA ($2,929) will suggest the downtrend could be over.
Binance Coin (BNB) rose above the 20-day EMA ($358) on June 9 but the bulls could not sustain the breakout. The bears pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA on June 10. However, the positive thing is that the bulls successfully held on to the trendline support.
The bulls will now try to propel the price above $378.77. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to the stiff overhead resistance at $433. A breakout and close above this resistance could push the price to the 50-day SMA ($478).
A breakout and close above this level will suggest the downtrend could be over. This positive view will be negated if the price turns down from the current levels or the overhead resistance and plummets below the trendline. That could pull the price down to $291.06 and then to $211.70.
Cardano (ADA) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($1.61) on June 10, indicating that the sentiment remains negative. The bears will now try to sink and sustain the price below the trendline support.
If they succeed, the developing ascending triangle pattern will invalidate. This could result in a drop to $1.24 and then to the critical support at $1. A strong rebound off $1 could keep the ADA/USDT pair range-bound for a few days.
Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the current level and breaks above $1.63, the pair could rally to $1.94. A breakout and close above this resistance will signal that bulls are back in command. That could result in a retest of the all-time high at $2.47.
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) rebound off the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.34) on June 10, suggesting that bears are selling on every minor relief rally.
If bears sink the price below the neckline, it will complete the bearish head and shoulders pattern that could result in a drop to $0.21. The bulls are likely to defend this support aggressively.
If the price rebounds strongly off this level, the DOGE/USDT could retest the neckline. If the price turns down from this resistance, the possibility of a break below $0.21 increases. That could result in a drop to $0.10.
This negative view will invalidate if the price rebounds off the current level and rises above the moving averages. That could open the gates for a rally to $0.47.
XRP turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.93) on June 10 but the positive sign is that the bulls have not given up much ground. This indicates that bulls are buying on every minor dip.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is trying to sustain above 40, indicating that the selling pressure is reducing. If buyers thrust the price above the 20-day EMA, the XRP/USDT pair could rally to $1.10.
A break above this resistance could challenge the 50-day SMA ($1.20). This view will invalidate if the price fails to break above the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest that bears are not willing to relent. That could result in a drop to the $0.75 to $0.65 support zone.
The bulls tried to push Polkadot (DOT) back into the ascending channel on June 10 but failed. This shows that bears are selling at higher levels. The bears will now try to sink the price below $19.60.
If they manage to do that, the DOT/USDT pair could start its decline to $17.50 and then to the critical support zone at $15 to $13.63. A bounce off this zone could keep the pair range-bound for a few more days.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price bounces off the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA ($22.81), a retest of $26.50 is possible. A breakout and close above this overhead resistance could result in a rally to $31.28.
The bulls tried to propel Uniswap (UNI) above the 20-day EMA ($25.58) on June 9 and 10 but failed. This shows the bears have not thrown in the towel yet. The sellers will now try to sink the price below the $21.50 to $20.46 support zone.
If they succeed, it will suggest that supply exceeds demand and the UNI/USDT pair could be on its way to $16.49 and then $13.04.
On the contrary, if the price rebounds off $21.50, the pair may again try to rise above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, a move to $30 is likely. If the pair turns down from this resistance, the range-bound action may continue for a few more days.
The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above $30 to signal the end of the downtrend.
Litecoin (LTC) has been trading close to the 20-day EMA ($176) for the past few days but the bulls have not been able to push the price above it. This suggests that bears are defending the 20-day EMA aggressively.
The price action of the past few days has formed a symmetrical triangle, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears.
If buyers drive the price above the resistance line of the triangle, the LTC/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($241). The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is attempting to sustain above 40, suggesting the selling pressure is reducing.
This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the triangle. That could sink the pair to $118.03 and then to $100.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is witnessing a tough tussle between the bulls and the bears near the critical level at $616.04. The bulls are buying the dip below $616.04 but the bears are defending the 20-day EMA ($667).
The 20-day EMA is flattening out but the RSI is in the negative territory, suggesting the bulls are trying to make a comeback. A breakout and close above the downtrend line will indicate that demand exceeds supply. That may result in a rally to the 50-day SMA ($905).
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level or the downtrend line, it will suggest that bears are selling on every minor rally. A break below $542.63 will open the gates for a further fall to $468.13.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.