Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Bearish Engulf Resisted by Stronger USD

USD/CAD ANLAYSIS

• Uncertainty around China and U.S. policy lingers.
• U.S. labor and Canadian balance of trade dominates headlines today.
• Will the bearish engulf unfold to further CAD strength?

USD/CAD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

The Canadian dollar reacted favorably to Chinese economic optimism giving the commodity currency a significant boost. This came despite falling crude oil prices however, being a large global exporter of various commodities, the loonie gained traction. Since then as we have seen for much of December and now in 2023, COVID cases within China have continued to limit upside for commodity demand and markets hold firm in their cautious approach.

This morning, the USD is slightly stronger against the CAD that may be following on from an expectedly hawkish FOMC minutes. At the time of release, markets reacted in a muted fashion with the prior ISM manufacturing release weighing down on the greenback. Later today U.S. labor data (see economic calendar below) will be in focus beginning with the ADP report (traditionally a poor gauge for Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)) and jobless claims. Overall the U.S. labor market remains tight with the demand for labor exceeding supply. I do not expect a major market reaction from this data ahead of NFP’s tomorrow.

From a Canadian perspective, the balance of trade figures for November may also be greeted with minimal reaction due to the lag in data (November) but remains an important variable for the Canadian economy which has been in a trade surplus since January of 2022.

USD/CAD ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD/CAD DAILY CHART

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Price action on the daily USD/CAD chart shows yesterday’s daily candle fully enclose the body of the prior candle resulting in a bearish engulf. The bearish engulfing candle traditionally leads to subsequent downside however, this particular formation does not appear at the top of an uptrend as is customary but may still result in the conventional downward move. Another daily close below the psychological 1.3500 support handle could spark a leg lower towards the 1.3385 swing low. This being said, tomorrow’s NFP data is crucial for short-term guidance and will likely provide the catalyst needed for directional bias.

Key resistance levels:

• 1.3700
• 1.3600

Key support levels:

• 1.3500
• 1.3385

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: BEARISH

IGCS shows retail traders are currently LONG on USD/CAD , with 59% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment resulting in a short-term downside bias.

Contact and followWarrenon Twitter:@WVenketas