Copper May Rise on US Stimulus Deal, Chinese Industrial Profits in Focus

Copper, Covid, Stimulus, Chinese Industrial Data – Talking Points

• US Congress consensus on $900 billion Covid relief nears final agreement
• Worldwide manufacturing improvement likely to remain copper tailwind
• China’s upcoming industrial profits in focus for the red metal’s path forward

Copper prices are trading slightly lower as US lawmakers are reportedly near final consensus on a long-awaited Covid relief package. The agreement is said to include US$600 in direct payments and $300 per week of continued enhanced unemployment benefits. After hard-fought negotiations on Capitol Hill, under intense public pressure, the deal is now near being on its way to the President’s desk, perhaps as early as the next few hours. The stimulus relief bill is likely to fuel a degree of economic activity in the United States, which bodes well for longer-term prices.

Copper Futures (COMEX) vs US Dollar DXY (Green Line) 1- Hour Chart

Chart created with TradingView

Last week LME copper prices pushed above the $8,000/ton mark after inventory levels showed dwindling stockpiles indicating outsized demand for the industrial metal. The weaker US Dollar has almost certainly helped boost copper prices recently as well, with the DXY index dropping briefly below the 90 handlelast week. Weakness in the anti-risk Greenback seems likely to persist as Covid vaccine developments appear to have bolstered an improved economic outlook in markets recently.

The strong recovery in manufacturing activity across the United States, Europe, and China are likely accelerants for the move in copper, a trend that will probably continue given current economic projections. China, in particular, is likely to remain a major driver for the industrial-focused red metal. This week’s upcoming industrial profits data from China will cross the wires on Sunday according to the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

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— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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