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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Tech Stocks Choppy in Monday’s Session, 15,000 Threshold Eyed

Nasdaq 100, Oil, Russia, Ukraine, US Treasury Yields – Talking Points

  • Nasdaq 100 points higher toward 15,000 key threshold
  • Important to be wary of month-end, quarter-end this week

The Nasdaq 100 Index continues to push higher during Monday’s session, leading other major US equity benchmarks higher. Monday’s session saw massive moves in the FX space, as Dollar strength saw the Greenback break out to a fresh 3-week high. Oil also fell as much as 7%, dampening risk appetite. US equity futures pared back premarket gains around 10:30 EST, with Nasdaq futures (NQ) falling from 14,900 to support around 14,750.

Despite the pullback, NQ continues to point higher toward the key 15,000 level. While the rally in the tech-laden index may be losing steam compared to a few weeks ago, the general trend continues to point higher. A flattening yield curve may benefit NQ in the near-term, as valuation may become more attractive as longer-end yields come in slightly. Despite the signaling from the Fed that tighter policy is coming, risk-assets may remain elevated as the central bank’s balance sheet continues to balloon. Traders should remain careful, as this week represents both month-end and quarter-end. Remember to remain nimble as institutions and money managers will be looking to rebalance their book(s) over the coming days.

Nasdaq 100 4 Hour Chart

Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Tech Stocks Choppy in Monday’s Session, 15,000 Threshold Eyed

Chart created with TradingView

Nasdaq 100 futures have taken out each level of resistance over the last two weeks in an orderly march higher. Given the slate of events this week, the robust rally from sub-13,000 could pause. Fortunately, price has strong support below current levels around the 14,500 level. Without any significant fundamental developments, the path of least resistance remains higher. 15,000 represents a key major psychological threshold, and it may be difficult to break through such a barrier with NFPs and PCE data to come later this week. However, should the batteries recharge and a move higher come about, price may find free air all the way to the 15,500 area.

US Economic Calendar

Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Tech Stocks Choppy in Monday’s Session, 15,000 Threshold Eyed

Courtesy of the DailyFX Economic Calendar

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— Written by Brendan Fagan, Intern

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