Gold Price (XAU/USD), Chart, and Analysis UST 2-year yields are back at highs last seen in March 2020. Gold breaks below $1,800/oz. Wednesday’s US PCE release the next driver for the precious metal.

The re-election of Jerome Powell for another four years at the helm of the Fed, while expected, added a dose . . . → Read More: Gold Price Outlook – Sellers Remain in Control as US Treasury Yields Jump

GBP price, news and analysis: GBP/USD has been falling steeply since Friday, largely due to USD strength. That weakness could well persist as the pair nears critical support levels. The UK flash purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) for November, released this session, came in above economists’ expectations but had no impact on GBP. GBP still . . . → Read More: British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD May Fall Further as USD Strength Persists

EUR/USD Analysis EU business activity shows growth despite COVID-19 fears. Spotlight on U.S. PMI later today. Advertisement NOVEMBER PMI SURPRISE BEAT PUSHES EURO HIGHER

Eurozone PMI exceeded expectations this morning:

Composite = 55.8, EST 53.2 Manufacturing = 58.6, EST 57.3

A reading above 50 is suggestive of an expanding economy which was . . . → Read More: EU Breaking News: Flash PMI Indicates November Expansion, Euro Higher

CRUDE OIL OUTLOOK: Crude oil prices seem biased lower in risk-off trade US PMI survey, API inventory flow figures in focus Key three-year chart barrier pressured once again

Crude oil prices have paused to digest losses after dropping to the lowest level in nearly two months. A risk-off backdrop might somewhat bias the . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Prices Still at Risk After Hitting 2-Month Low

Global market sentiment ended on a fairly mixed note this past week. Taking a look at Wall Street, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed about 2.3%, outperforming the cyclically-sensitive Dow Jones, which sank roughly 1.3%. The S&P 500 was caught in the middle, rising 0.42%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 declined 1.69% as . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, US Dollar, Crude Oil, NZD/USD, RBNZ, Fed Nomination

EUR/USD Analysis: Eurozone fundamentals worsen while USD benefits from EM risk-off rotation No end in sight for EUR/USD downtrend, although light expected trading over Thanksgiving may provide a slight reprieve IG Client Sentiment ‘mixed’ despite a sizeable 72% of traders net-long Advertisement Eurozone Fundamentals Deteriorate

The picture is looking increasingly worse for the . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Under Pressure amid German Lockdown Fears, Strong US Dollar

GBP/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis Covid lockdowns a headwind for the Euro. Bank of England chief economist open to larger interest rate hikes. Hefty retail positional changes over the last week.

Keep up to date with all market-moving data releases and events by using the DailyFX Calendar

A surge in covid cases . . . → Read More: British Pound (GBP) Outlook – EUR/GBP Clinging on to Multi-Month Support

RAND ANALYSIS Market sentiment rejects riskier rand. Key U.S. data prints may be overshadowed by COVID-19 situation. USD/ZAR channel break. Advertisement ZAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

YEARLY HIGHS FOR USD/ZAR AS RISK OFF SENTIMENT GRIPS FX MARKETS

Last week’s Emerging Market (EM) currency selloff was underway after Turkey’s central bank decided to cut interest . . . → Read More: USD/ZAR Forecast: Dollar Bid As Risk Aversion Extends, Rand to Test 16.00?

Crude Oil, Japan, PBOC, US Dollar, Fed, Euro, Kospi – Talking Points WTI crude oil made a new low after reports that reserves might be tapped APAC equity indiceswere mixed while commodity currencies found support The US Dollar has gained on faster taper talk, will that impact crude prices?

Crude oil went aggressively . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Tanks on Speculation of Supply From the US and Japan. Will WTI Continue to Break Support?

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Bearish There are glimmers of hope for EUR/USD bulls in the week ahead now that market pricing has adjusted to suggest traders finally believe European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde when she says there will be no Eurozone interest rate hikes next year. The problem is that at the time . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Outlook No Brighter For Week Ahead Despite Savage Falls

UK British Pound Technical Outlook: Neutral

The Pound Sterling (GBP) has recently benefited from positive retail and unemployment data that has increased the probability of a rate hike in December as the BoE (Bank of England) prepares to tackle rising inflation.

Find out more about the impact of interest rates on . . . → Read More: British Pound Outlook: US Dollar Strength Holds GBP/USD Bulls at Bay

Gold Price Talking Points

The price of gold consolidates after trading to a fresh monthly high ($1877), and data prints coming out of the US may keep bullion afloat as Federal Reserve officials now brace for sticky inflation.

Fundamental Forecast for Gold Price: Neutral

The recent breakout in the price of . . . → Read More: Gold Price to Stay Afloat on Strong US PCE Price Report

Crude Oil Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Crude oil prices fell over 6% last week, marking a fourth week of losses for the commodity Reports that China and the US are coordinating inventory releases weighed on sentiment Market impact puts OPEC in tough spot with incoming forecasted market surplus by 2022

Oil prices accelerated . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Fundamental Forecast: US and China Square Off Against OPEC

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Bullish US Dollar supported by hawkish Federal Reserve policy expectations Core PCE data is in focus with all eyes on where US inflation is going Fed Chair pick a source of near-term USD volatility, but unlikely to last

The US Dollar may remain on the offense in the . . . → Read More: US Dollar Forecast: Key Inflation Data, Biden Fed Nomination in Focus

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Alt-Coins – Prices, Charts, and Analysis Confirmed Bitcoin (BTC) chart break this week. Ethereum (ETH) making gains on Bitcoin.

A tough week for Bitcoin with a confirmed break of the recent trend seeing the largest cryptocurrency by market cap lose around $10k from high to low and . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH): A Period of Strong Consolidation is Needed if The Long-Term Trend is to Resume

NZD/USD, RBNZ Price Analysis & News Balance of Risks Gearing Up for a 50bps Rate Hike OCR Projection In Focus Given Market’s Aggressive Tightening View

Next week, the RBNZ is expected to raise interest rates, although, in light of far stronger than expected domestic data, the balance of risks are shifting towards . . . → Read More: RBNZ Preview: How will the New Zealand Dollar React?

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: NEUTRAL The Australian Dollar is getting caught in bond market crossfire Rising Treasury yields pushed USD up to mark AUD/USD down Commodity markets pause, will they re-emerge to impact AUD/USD?

The Australian Dollar tried to gain some ground early in the week but was over awed. AUD weakness was . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Outlook: US Dollar, Treasuries, RBA, Fed. Is AUD/USD Sidelined?

Oil, WTI, US-China Relations, OPEC+, Strategic Petroleum Reserve – Talking Points West Texas Intermediate set to post largest single-day decline since July 19th Covid resurgence in Europe, strategic reserve releases weighing on market Advertisement

WTI looks set to post its largest single-day decline since July as Europe struggles with Covid outbreaks and rumors . . . → Read More: Oil Suffers Worst Decline Since July with Covid, Potential Reserve Releases Weighing on Sentiment

Pound Sterling (GBP) Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Unresolved EU-UK talks over Northern Ireland Protocol despite recent progress Markets taper expectations over December rate hike; 25bps hike at 50% probability Dollar strength keeps GBP/USD at bay Institutional speculative positioning (GBP) turns net-short in anticipation of further Sterling weakness Advertisement Northern Ireland Protocol Talks Resume with “Serious . . . → Read More: Pound Sterling Forecast: GBP Lacking Significant Tailwinds Despite Positive Retail Sales Data

FINTWIT ANALYSIS COVID-19 concerns cause WTI Crude to fall as markets recalibrate. Challenging environment sees Alibaba miss estimates forecasts look positive. TRY slumps as Turkey continues to ease monetary policy, EM’s suffer. Advertisement PANDEMIC FEARS HALT WTI PRICE ACTION AFTER FALL IN U.S. CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES

U.S. crude (WTI) oil resumes its decline . . . → Read More: U.S. WTI Crude (CLc1), Alibaba (BABA) & USD/TRY – FinTwit Trends to Watch

GBP/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis

Keep up to date with all market-moving data releases and events by using the DailyFX Calendar

The latest UK retail sales data for October beat market expectations, boosted primarily by higher sales in non-food stores, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Non-food stores sales rose . . . → Read More: GBP/USD Outlook – Sterling Propped Up by Data But US Dollar Strength Controls Cable

EUR/USD Analysis and News

Euro Bias Remains Selling on Rallies Austria Announces Lockdown, German Health Authorities Cannot Rule Out Lockdown

After a brief reprieve, which largely stemmed from the unwind in Euro funded EM carry trades in ZAR and TRY, the currency is once again on the back foot with the bias . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Slides Germany Cannot Rule Out Possible Lockdown on Covid Surge

Japanese Yen, USD/JPY, US Dollar, US Treasuries, Hang Seng, Fed – Talking Points The Japanese Yen is caught between bullish momentum and resistance levels APAC equity indicesmostly movedslightly higher except for the Hang Seng Index The US Dollar has gyrated to Treasury yield swings, will that drive USD/JPY?

The Japanese Yen had little . . . → Read More: Japanese Yen Looks to Consolidate Against the US Dollar After Making New Lows. Can USD/JPY Go Higher?

Japanese Yen, USD/JPY, Japan Inflation, Oil, Technical Forecast – Talking Points Japanese Yen largely unchanged on October consumer price index data Oil trims losses, but traders remain laser-focused on potential inventory releases USD/JPY rides trendline support higher as gains remain intact for the week Friday’s Asia-Pacific Forecast

Asia-Pacific markets look set to close . . . → Read More: USD/JPY Aims Higher After Japan’s Core CPI Falls Short of Expectations

Crude Oil Price, Chart, and Analysis US President looking for coordinated action on oil stockpiles. Crude oil will remain capped as discussions continue.

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The President of the United States, Joe Biden, is having ongoing talks with . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Price to Remain Capped on Strategic Reserve Release Talk

USD/TRY Back to Highs on Mention of Further Potential Cuts

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) cut rates by 100 basis points and leaves the door open for further easing in December.

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Immediate response saw the Lira trade at recent lows despite a modest pullback leading up to . . . → Read More: Turkey’s Central Bank Cuts Rates by 100 Basis Points; USD/TRY Remains Volatile

GBP price, news and analysis: GBP has been outperforming even a firm US Dollar over the past few sessions, with EUR/GBP falling steeply. That’s despite a row over second jobs for members of the UK Parliament and sleaze allegations centering on the ruling Conservative Party that could weaken the Pound longer term. GBP at . . . → Read More: British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP Strength at Risk From Political Turmoil

Canadian Dollar, US Yields, Crude Oil, NZD/USD, AUD/USD – Talking Points The Canadian Dollar got hit by bond traders’ expectations being disappointed APAC equities were listless, undermined after a risk-off sentiment lead from the US Crude oil fell, gold held and commodity currencies softened.Where to for USD/CAD?

The Canadian Dollar dropped after CPI . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Down on CPI and Yields as Risk Turns Off. Will USD/CAD Keep Rising?

Crude Oil, WTI, Technical Analysis – Talking Points: Crude oil prices declined amid risk aversion, Biden-Xi Summit WTI on course for worst weekly losing streak since March 2020 Retail upside exposure is rising, offering bearish contrarian view

WTI crude oil prices are on pace for a fourth week of consecutive losses, which would . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Prices Sink with Dow Jones. Will WTI Extend Drop after Support Breakout?

US Dollar Price, Chart, and Analysis

US dollar basket spikes above 96.00. Multiple Fed speakers on the docket.

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year US Treasury is currently testing a fresh one-month high around 1.65% with traders eyeing the mid-March 1.73% yield level as the next target. While the latest move . . . → Read More: US Dollar (DXY) Posts a Fresh 16-Month High Ahead of a Cluster of Fed Speakers

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Gold Talking Points: Gold (XAU/USD) prices remain supported by inflation but USD strength limits gains UK inflation data climbs to 10 year high, pressure intensifies for BoE to raise rates Rising yields and a more hawkish Fed may continue to weigh on sentiment ahead of next week’s FOMC UK CPI . . . → Read More: Gold (XAU/USD): UK CPI Boosts Bullion, USD Strength Limits Gains

FTSE 100 Analysis and News FTSE 100 Testing 7300 Amid Greenlight for BoE Dec Hike IG Sentiment Changes Signal FTSE 100 to Reverse Lower

FTSE 100: Modest underperformance in the FTSE 100 following the latest UK inflation data and given yesterday’s labour market report, which provided initial details of the furlough expiration impact. . . . → Read More: FTSE 100 Forecast for the Week

EUR price, news and analysis: EUR/USD continues to tumble, with no sign yet of a rally or even a near-term bounce. The pair has dropped already beneath the support line of a downward-sloping channel in place since late May this year to its lowest level since July 2020 and there is now little support . . . → Read More: Euro (EUR) Price Outlook: No End Yet in Sight for EUR/USD Weakness

US Dollar, Treasury Yields, Fed, Bullard, AUD/USD, CBA, USD/JPY – Talking Points The US Dollar continues to break new ground as momentum gathers Encouraging economic data and hawkish comments boost yields and USD Commodities and currencies weaken against the Dollar. Will USD keep going?

The US Dollar made a new high for the . . . → Read More: Dollar Index (DXY) Soars on Data and Hawkish Fed Lifting Yields. Can USD Fly Higher?

AUDUSD, AUDNZD Price Analysis and News

Australian Wage Data Key for RBA Monetary Policy Considerations AUD/NZD Elevated Relative to Bond Spreads Australian Wage Data Key for RBA Monetary Policy Considerations

A plethora of RBA commentary overnight amid the release of the November meeting minutes as well as Governor Lowe’s speech. Within the . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Forecast: Wages Key to AUD/USD and RBA Outlook

Canadian Dollar Price, Chart, and Analysis

Keep up to date with all market-moving data releases and events by using the DailyFX Calendar

Bank of Canada (BoC) governor Tiff Macklem suggested in an article yesterday that interest rate hikes are getting nearer, further strengthening an already strong Canadian dollar. The market had . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar (CAD) Strength Underpinned by Rate Hike Expectations

GBP price, UK employment news and analysis: The latest UK jobs report was stronger than economists had predicted, with employment above expectations, the unemployment rate down and average earnings higher than forecast. That has made an interest rate increase by the Bank of England next month almost certain, although the markets are unsure how . . . → Read More: British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD Rallying After Strong UK Jobs Data

Dow Jones, US, China, RBA, AUD, NOK, Crude Oil – Talking Points The Dow Jones held ground on solid data and calm US-China talks APAC equities were mainly higher as sentiment remained positive US retail sales data expectations got a bump.Will DJI resume its uptrend?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index, and US . . . → Read More: Dow Jones Industrial Average Steadies on Biden–Xi Non-Event. Will US Stocks Make a New High?

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Gold, XAU/USD, US Retail Sales, Treasury Yields – Talking Points Gold prices look higher after big gain on inflation worries US retail sales may provide the key for XAU’s direction XAU/USD eyes psychological 1900 level as prices gain

Gold’s recent upside appears to be stalling out after prices cleared . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Eyes US Retail Sales for Direction

EUR/GBP Price, Chart, and Analysis

UK interest rate hike in December looking likely. UK inflation is set to rise further. EU covid rates turn higher.

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EUR/GBP traders will need to be alert over the next . . . → Read More: EUR/GBP Pressured by Rate Expectations and Covid Cases, UK Inflation Data Looms

EUR/USD Analysis and News

Risks Remain Lower for EUR/USD Sharp Increase in Covid Cases Adds Another Concern for the Euro

EUR/USD: Fresh 2021 lows for the Euro having posted its lowest close since Summer 2020 and risks continue to be geared towards further downside with a potential move to the low 1.13s. . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: Risks Remain Lower for EUR/USD, Covid Surge Adds to Weakness

US Dollar, DXY, Treasury Yields, Japan, China, RBA – Talking Points The US Dollar struggled to hold last week’s gains in Asian trade today Economic data was mixed with Japan missing and China beating projections US yields continue to dominate after CPI last week. Will USD get a kick-along?

The US Dollar was . . . → Read More: DXY Dollar Index Slips on Treasury Yield Dip and Mixed Data in Asia. Can USD Get a Grip?

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, Chinese Economic Data, Japan GDP – Talking Points Australian Dollar is in focus with Chinese economic data on tap to kick off APAC trading Japan’s Q3 GDP crossed the wires at -3.0% q/q, missing analysts’ expectations of -0.7% AUD/USD looks to move higher after a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern forms Monday’s . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Eyes Chinese Economic Data, Will AUD/USD React

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Weekly Fundamental Gold Price Forecast: Neutral Rising inflation expectations and falling long-end bond yields have given a new shine to gold prices. If real yields – nominal yields less inflation – continue to fall, gold prices will likely continue their rally. The IG Client Sentiment Indexsuggests that gold prices in USD-terms . . . → Read More: Weekly Fundamental Gold Price Forecast: Real Yields to Determine Next Move

Stocks Fundamental Forecast: Bullish Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 fell but the bull market remained Stocks do tend to be more volatility in higher inflationary periods Fed policymakers may continue reiterating transitory price outlook

On Wall Street, futures tracking the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 wrapped up this past . . . → Read More: Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Forecasts for the Week Ahead: Inflation Hedges?

Japanese Yen Fundamental Forecast: Neutral Japanese Yen eyes Q3 GDP data to kick off the week Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s stimulus package also in focus USD/JPY upside could resume if GDP and stimulus fail to impress

The Japanese Yen is in focus to kick off the trading week, with potentially high-impact economic . . . → Read More: Japanese Yen Fundamental Forecast: USD/JPY Eyes Further Upside on Japan GDP

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Bearish Last Wednesday’s sharp fall in EUR/USD below 1.15 to its lowest level for almost 16 months was due to news that US inflation had hit its highest level in 30 years rather than to any new developments in the Eurozone. Nonetheless, it emphasized again how far the European Central . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: EUR/USD May Fall Further in Week Ahead, 1.14 Likely

US Dollar Talking Points

The US Dollar Index (DXY) pulls back from a fresh yearly high (95.27) as the U. of Michigan Confidence survey tumbles to 66.8 from 71.7 in October to mark the lowest reading since 2011, but indications of stronger economic activity may keep the Greenback afloat asit put pressure . . . → Read More: US Dollar Forecast: USD Rally to Persist on Upbeat Retail Sales Report

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Alt-Coins – Prices, Charts, and Analysis Crypto market fading lower, consolidation remains key. The alt-coin market remains true to trend.

Bitcoin is back to its Monday opening level around $63.5k and is looking for support from the multi-week bullish channel. The first half of the week saw . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) Drift off All-Time Highs, Outlook is Still Bright

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: NEUTRAL The Australian Dollar went south on US Dollar resurgence Commodities undermined AUD but iron ore might run into issues US yields are a focus ahead. What would a peak mean for AUD/USD?

The Australian Dollar depreciated over the week as US Dollar strength and commodity weakness dominated market . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Outlook: US Dollar, Treasuries, Commodities. Where to for AUD/USD?

GBP/USD FUNDAMENTAL HIGHLIGHTS: Consolidation After Fresh 2021 Low A plethora of UK Data with Greater Attention Placed on Inflation

A fresh YTD low for cable, having broken through the 1.3400 handle. However, this has largely been a USD story, given that EUR/GBP remained largely muted throughout the week. FX markets paid attention . . . → Read More: GBP Forecast: GBP/USD Plummets to Fresh 2021 Lows, Consolidation Ahead

US Consumer Confidence Talking Points: The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment reading slipped 6.8% to 66.8 from October’s 71.7 The headline reading is the lowest since 2011 while the one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.9%, it’s highest since 2008 Sentiment among Americans seems strongly correlated to political leaning

The University of Michigan’s consumer . . . → Read More: US Consumer Confidence Drops to Lowest Level in a Decade, Pulling Dollar From Highs

FINTWIT ANALYSIS OPEC monthly report largely unchanged, bullish technical setup. SPX earnings season slowdown, Fed taper and monthly seasonality. GBP at critical juncture both fundamentally and technically. Advertisement OPEC HOLDING BACK SUPPLY MAY SUSTAIN HIGH BRENT CRUDE PRICES

OPEC released its monthly oil market report for November this week which did not contain . . . → Read More: Brent Crude (LCOc1), S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) & GBP/USD – FinTwit Trends to Watch

Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) Outlook: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) prices retreat back to trendline support, Ether (ETH/USD) and other major cryptocurrency follow suite as rising yields support the greenback Will COP26 and inflation expectations hinder Bitcoin’s ability to climb higher? Bitcoin, inflation & COP26

Bitcoin prices have continued to retreat from Wednesday’s ATH at around . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Correction or Reversal as Prices Fall From ATH?

USDCAD Price Analysis and News

USD Breaking Out as US Data Goes From Strength to Strength Oil and Rates Suggests USD/CAD is Trading at Rich Levels FX Momentum Stretched USD Breaking Out as US Data Goes From Strength to Strength

All eyes on the US Dollar after breaking out to a fresh . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Upside Stretched in Short-Term

GBP/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis

Little support seen for GBP/USD. EU/UK discussions continue over NI protocol.

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The US dollar continues to dominate price action in the FX-space, leaving a range of currencies at the risk . . . → Read More: GBP/USD Remains Under Pressure From the US Dollar and Article 16 Fears

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, US Dollar, US Yields, Gold – Talking Points The Australian Dollar has accelerated lower after Wednesday’s CPI APAC equities were mixed, crude oil is down a bit and gold is firmer The market is testing the Fed’s resolve.Will US rates hit AUD/USD?

The Australian Dollar has lost ground to the . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Sinks on US Dollar Gains as CPI Fall Oout Continues. Where To From Here?

GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK: Gold prices surge despite hawkish shift in rates outlook, stronger US Dollar Markets may be worried that the Fed remains behind the curve on inflation Breaking immediate resistance may set the stage for a rise above $1900/oz

Gold prices are trading near five-month highs having surged mid-week as October’s US . . . → Read More: Gold Price Surge Signals Markets Fear Fed Lagging on Inflation

CRUDE OIL PRICES, INFLATION, IRAN-US RELATIONS, IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL – TALKING POINTS Crude oil are prices at risk ahead of key geopolitical development at the end of the month US-Iran talks on 2015 nuclear deal could yield progress, apply downward pressure on oil What are obstacles to reconciliation and other macro-fundamental factors swaying crude? . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Price Volatility Ahead of US-Iran Nuclear Deal Talks

US Dollar Price, Chart, and Analysis US inflation continues to soar. US dollar strength is seen across the board.

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Inflation in the US soared to its highest level since November 1990 with prices across the board . . . → Read More: US Dollar Strength Leaves Sterling And the Euro In Its Slipstream

ARTICLE 16 EXPLAINER

UK-EU Tensions Rise Over Northern Ireland Protocol UK to Trigger Article 16 Should Talks Fail, Raising Trade War Risks OVERVIEW

Tensions between the UK and EU have been on the rise in recent weeks, as both parties have yet to resolve their differences over the Northern Ireland Protocol. In . . . → Read More: Article 16: Why Triggering it Risks an All Out UK-EU Trade War

GBP price, news and analysis: GBP/USD is edging closer to a support line connecting the lower lows in place on the daily chart since late May. It has not been helped by either a stronger US Dollar after yesterday’s hot US inflation numbers or by a mixed bag of UK GDP data released earlier . . . → Read More: British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD Sliding Towards Support as UK GDP Disappoints

Japanese Yen, USD/JPY, US Dollar, US CPI, China, AUD/USD – Talking Points The Japanese Yen came under pressure as US CPI pushed rates and USD up APAC equities were mixed with the ASX an underperformer after data Is US Dollar demand enough to drive USD/JPY to resume its uptrend?

The Japanese Yen weakened . . . → Read More: Japanese Yen Tanks Against a Roaring US Dollar Post CPI. Will Yen Resume Weakening?

Crude Oil, WTI, US CPI, 30-Year Treasury Auction, Technical Analysis – Talking Points: Crude oil prices wobbled with volatility on Wall Street US CPI data and 30-year Treasury auction key culprits Retail positioning trends offer bearish-contrarian view

Crude oil prices weakened over the past 24 hours as the growth-linked commodity was rocked by . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Prices Wobbled With Wall Street on Inflation Story, Will WTI Extend Drop?

US CPI, AUD Analysis and News

Large Deviation From Consensus Needed in CPI to Awaken FX Australian Jobs Data in Focus, Depressed Iron Prices Weigh on AUD Sentiment

The main event of today will be the latest US CPI report, where expectations are for the headline to rise 0.4ppts to 5.8%, while . . . → Read More: USD & Cross Asset Reaction to US CPI, AUD Headwinds Ahead of Jobs Report

Tesla CEO Elon Musk is back in the news again with Twitter polls, stories about his brother selling Tesla stock, and Michael Burry’s suggestions hitting the stock price hard.

Tesla (TSLA) Prices, Charts, and Analysis

Tesla stock price slumps, $1000 holds at the first attempt. Famed short-seller back on Elon Musk’s . . . → Read More: Tesla (TSLA) Shares Slump Further – Down 17% in Less Than a Week

GBP price, news and analysis: GBP/USD continues to trade broadly sideways despite an ongoing row over whether former Conservative Attorney General Sir Geoffrey Cox broke any rules while earning more than £800,000 representing the British Virgin Islands Government in a corruption case. Even though this has come in the wake of the resignation of . . . → Read More: British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD Shrugs Off Row Over MPs' Second Jobs

Crude Oil, US Dollar, China, PPI, US CPI – Talking Points Crude oil prices rise as supply from the US government looks unlikely APAC equities and risk assets came under pressure as inflation is in focus All eyes on US CPI and what it means for USD. Will it impact oil prices?

Crude . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Prices Jump as US Holds Reserves and Ahead of US CPI. Where To from Here?

GOLD, XAU/USD, US DOLLAR, US YIELDS, US CPI – Talking Points Gold has been moving up as the US Dollar drifts lower before CPI Treasury yields and real rates diminish, debt fades as an alternate asset Inflation correlation not there, but the Fed might be. Will gold glisten?

Gold has been moving higher . . . → Read More: Gold Prices Up as US Dollar and Yields Dip Ahead of US CPI. Can XAU/USD Go Higher?

EUR/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis

German ZEW highlights a more optimistic outlook. EUR/USD remains stuck in a range and at the greenback’s mercy.

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The latest German ZEW data suggest that while current conditions are difficult, . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Outlook Stable Around 1.1600 For Now

Gold Price Analysis and News Gold Underpinned as Odds of Brainard Becoming Fed Chair Increase Gold Bulls Face Significant Hurdle IG Client Sentiment: Positioning Changes Could See Gold Reverse Higher Gold Underpinned as Odds of Brainard Becoming Fed Chair Increase

Gold is once again back at familiar resistance as the latest uptick stems . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: Gold Bulls Face Significant Hurdle, Brainard Bullish for Gold

US Dollar, Treasury Yields, USD, Federal Reserve, S&P 500 – Talking Points The US Dollar slipped with yields as Fed leadership change bets slightly rise APAC equities and currencies were mixed with Japanese Yen outperforming The Fed warned on the prices of risky assets,will USD resume its uptrend?

The US Dollar lost ground . . . → Read More: US Dollar Hit as Treasury Yields Fall. Fed Warns of Risky Asset Price, Will USD Rally?

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Gold, XAU/USD, Treasury Yields, Fed Rate Hike Bets, CPI – Talking Points Gold may continue post-BoE rise as Treasury yields scale back US inflation data key potential risk driver for yellow metal prices XAU/USD eyes bullish SMA crossover as major resistance looms

Gold prices moved higher overnight as markets . . . → Read More: Gold Eyes Key Resistance With Fed Bets in Focus as CPI Nears

Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, ASX 200, Caterpillar, Symmetrical Triangle – Asia Pacific Indices Briefing Dow Jones outperforms Nasdaq 100 as tech stocks falter post infrastructure bill Asia-Pacific markets, Nikkei 225, ASX 200 may follow cautiously rosy Wall Street Nikkei 225 eyeing Symmetrical Triangle, but broader trading bias remains neutral Monday’s Wall Street Trading Session . . . → Read More: Dow Jones Gains as Nasdaq 100 Falls Post Infrastructure Bill, Nikkei 225 May Rise

EUR/GBP Price, Chart, and Analysis EU/UK relations continue to sour. Sterling supported for now but article 16 fears remain. Retail traders shun EUR/GBP.

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According to a raft of media outlets, the EU may suspend the Brexit . . . → Read More: British Pound (GBP) Outlook Strained as Article 16 Fears Flare Up

Tesla (TSLA) Analysis & News

Elon Musk Proposes to Sell 10% Stake in Tesla in Twitter Poll Poll Result in Favour of “Yes” Tesla Gaps Lower by 7.5%, But Don’t Rule Out Quick Recovery

Over the weekend, Elon Musk took to Twitter to tweet a poll, saying that “much is made lately . . . → Read More: Tesla Drops as Elon Musk Proposes to Sell 10% Tesla Stake After Twitter Poll

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Alt-Coins – Prices, Charts, and Analysis Crypto market jumps as the Asia session opens. Further gains look likely.

Bitcoin jumped by around $2000 in the first hour of overnight trade and has not looked back with the market leader currently trading around $66k and a few hundred dollars . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) – Rallying Hard as The Week Opens

Crude Oil, China, Coal, Baltic Dry Index – Talking Points Crude oil prices find support as supply issues are still unresolved APAC equities were mixed in a quiet Asian session despite strong Chinese data All eyes on inflation data later in the week. Will crude resume trend?

Crude oil continued higher today as . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Reignites for Bulls As OPEC+ News Sinks In. Can WTI Make a New High?

Gold, XAU/USD, NFPs, Treasury Yields, Fedspeak, Technical Analysis – Talking Points: Gold prices closed at highest since early September last week Fed may reiterate transitory inflation outlook, Powell in focus XAU/USD approaching key resistance as retail traders sell

Gold prices traded quietly as the new trading week began with the Asia-Pacific session. Treasury . . . → Read More: Gold Price Outlook Turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell as XAU/USD Breaks Resistance

USD/MXN OUTLOOK: BEARISH USD/MXN has corrected lower in recent days after failing to clear key resistance in the 21.00 area Selling momentum could accelerate in the near-term, but to have more conviction in the bearish scenario, price would need to move below its 200-day moving average From a fundamental point of view, Banxico’s . . . → Read More: Mexican Peso Forecast: USD/MXN to Retain Bearish Bias Post-Fed Ahead of Banxico

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Bearish EUR/USD is at risk of resuming its trend lower as ECB President Lagarde stresses again that Eurozone interest rates will not be increased any time soon. While many other major central banks are pushing back against market pricing of rate hikes too, the lower yield on Eurozone bonds still . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast for the Week Ahead: EUR/USD Outlook Turns Bearish Again

Gold Fundamental Forecast – Neutral Gold prices continued ranging after Fed, watching US Dollar and bond yields The focus shifts to US inflation data, but will it be able to impact policy bets? Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak, elevated bond yields a barrier for XAU

Anti-fiat gold prices faced a fairly . . . → Read More: Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Turns to US Inflation and Fed Chair Jerome Powell

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Alt-Coins – Prices, Charts, and Analysis Bullish trend support creaking as Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidate. Alt-coins remain in favor after weeks of grinding higher.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are struggling to hold onto the bullish trend channel we have been highlighting for the past few months but . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Setting Up For The Next Leg Higher

Shiba Inu Sees Market Cap Halved in 9-Days

It wouldn’t be a story about Altcoins if we didn’t open with a dramatic rise and dramatic fall. At its peak on October 27th, Shiba Inu attained a $50 billion market cap. At the time of writing this, its market cap now sits at $25 . . . → Read More: Altcoin Crypto Currency Shiba Inu Faces Off Against Dogecoin

AUTRALIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: BEARISH The Australian Dollar and AU yields weighed by RBA manoeuvring Energy and metal commodities undermined AUD as USD strengthened Yields and commodities teaming up against AUD. Where to for AUD/USD?

The RBA underwhelmed market expectations at their last monetary policy meeting. The market had already witnessed the abandonment . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Outlook: Commodities, US Dollar and RBA Weigh. Can AUD/USD Hold?

British Pound Talking Points

The update to the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may produce headwinds for the British Poundas the Bank of England (BoE) expects economic activity in the third quarter of 2021 to expand “at a slower pace than projected in the August Report.”

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Bearish . . . → Read More: GBP/USD Rate Eyes Yearly Low Ahead of UK GDP Report

FINTWIT ANALYSIS XAU/USD may be in for end of year rally. Natural Gas upside may continue as 2021 draws to a close. Potential for NDX pullback as QE taper looms. Advertisement GOLD CLIMBS DESPITE STRONGER DOLLAR

Spot gold has been testing the critical $1800 area of confluence since September and may succeed after . . . → Read More: Spot Gold (XAU/USD), Natural Gas (LNG) & Nasdaq (NDX) – FinTwit Trends to Watch

US Dollar Talking Points: It was a big week for the USD with both the Fed and NFP. The overwhelming takeaway was the dovish take from the FOMC on Wednesday, to the degree that a really strong NFP report could barely prod the US Dollar up to a fresh high with the bid quickly . . . → Read More: US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

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USD, NFP Price Analysis & News US NFP 531k vs 450k, Prior Reading Revised Higher Unemployment Rate Drop to 4.6% Market Reaction Tepid Given Fed Meeting NFP Strong as Headline and Unemployment Rate Beats Expectations

A better than expected NFP headline at 531k vs 450k, while the prior reading . . . → Read More: USD, Gold, US Rates Show Tepid Reaction to Strong US Nonfarm Payrolls

USD, GBP, EUR/GBP Analysis and News NFP Less Impactful In Light of Fed Action GBP Edging Towards YTD Lows EUR/GBP A Better Avenue to Fade GBP Weakness

USD: Now that the long-awaited Fed taper decision is here, the focus will turn to the rate outlook for 2022. However, while NFP tends to garner . . . → Read More: USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Price Action Set-Up

EUR/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis

EUR/USD – boxed in and eyeing multi-week support. Retail traders add to long positions, reduce shorts.

Keep up to date with all market-moving data releases and events by using the DailyFX Calendar

With central bank meetings out of the way, all eyes will now be on . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Testing Support Ahead of the Latest US Jobs Report (NFP)

US Dollar, Bank of England, Treasuries, OPEC+, Crude Oil, Japan – Talking Points

USD moved up as bond markets reeled from Bank of England inaction OPEC+ stuck to plan and disregarded political pressure to up production Asian markets digested overnight moves.Will USD uptrend continue?

The US Dollar rallied in the aftermath of . . . → Read More: US Dollar Soars on Higher Yields and Bank of England No-Go. Where to for USD?

Crude Oil, WTI, OPEC+, NFPs, Technical Analysis – Talking Points: Crude oil prices aimed lower despite OPEC+ output hike hold Markets bet US may release more strategic petroleum reserves WTI eyeing NFPS as positioning data offers a bearish outlook

Crude oil prices aimed lower over the past 24 hours. This is despite OPEC . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Price Outlook: WTI Eyes NFPs After OPEC+ Output Decision as Trend Breaks

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, RBA, Oil Prices Talking Points Australian Dollar eyes RBA monetary policy statement Oil prices continue to drop after OPEC stays on course AUD/USD may target 50-day SMA if weakness persists Friday’s Asia-Pacific Forecast

Asia-Pacific markets are set to move higher after a rosy Wall Street session overnight. The benchmark S&P . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Eyes RBA Monetary Policy Statement

US Dollar Price, Chart, and Analysis

FOMC start tapering but leave themselves flexibility. US Treasury yields nudge a touch higher.

Keep up to date with all market-moving data releases and events by using the DailyFX Calendar

Fed chair Jerome Powell announced yesterday that the central bank would start reducing the number . . . → Read More: US Dollar (DXY) Pushing Higher as The Fed Starts to Tighten

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GBP price, news and analysis: The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee is almost certain to raise UK Bank Rate to 0.25% today from the current 0.10%. However, that 15bps increase has been fully priced in by the markets already and GBP/USD is therefore more likely to weaken than strengthen . . . → Read More: GBP Price Outlook: GBP/USD Downside Beckons Despite Likely UK Rate Hike

Crude Oil, OEPC+, Fed, FOMC, Bank of England – Talking Points Crude oil prices slid as the WTI contract traded under US$80 a barrel Post-FOMC environment is positive after all main US indices hit highs All eyes on the BoE and OPEC+ meetings. Has crude seen the top for now?

Crude oil slipped . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Tanks Ahead of OPEC+ and Against Upbeat Tone Post FOMC. Can WTI Get a Grip?

Gold, XAU/USD, Fed, Yield Curve, NFP Jobs Report – Talking Points Gold prices reacted to the upside following the Fed’s taper announcement Bullion traders eye Friday’s non-farm payrolls report for next directional move XAU/USD faces confluent resistance from key moving averages

Gold prices moved higher following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision Wednesday. . . . → Read More: Gold Prices Eye NFP Report After FOMC Steepens Yield Curve, Drags USD

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, AU Trade Balance, Oil prices – Talking Points Australian trade data in focus for today’s Asia-Pacific session Oil prices are moving lower after EIA shows big inventory build AUD/USD aims higher as price grapples with the 20-day SMA Thursday’s Asia-Pacific Forecast

The Australian Dollar is in focus for today’s Asia-Pacific . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Rises Post-FOMC as Australian Trade Data Approaches

Key Talking Points:

The Federal Reserve is due to conclude its two-day meeting today and money markets are pricing in tighter measures to tame overheating inflation. Whilst expectations for rate hikes have been brought forward, the likelihood of a rate hike today is pretty much completely off the table, so the focus will . . . → Read More: US Dollar Setup: USD/JPY, USD/CAD, EUR/USD Ahead of FOMC