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Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Morning Star, ECB on Deck

Euro, EUR/USD Talking Points: Last week saw the Euro break down against the USD, setting a fresh yearly low. After a doji on Friday, Monday saw a strong bullish move to create a morning star reversal formation. So far on Tuesday that strength has continued on Tuesday and the big focus is on European . . . → Read More: Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Morning Star, ECB on Deck

ISM Manufacturing Data at 57.6: Employment and Prices Rise

US Manufacturing PMI Just Edges Estimate US Manufacturing PMI = 57.6 (actual) vs 57.5 (expected)

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The US manufacturing sector expanded for the 20th month in a row. While September to November we saw prints above 60, the January figure below . . . → Read More: ISM Manufacturing Data at 57.6: Employment and Prices Rise

Bitcoin Setup – BTC/USD Bulls Take Control of the Trend

Bitcoin, USD Talking Points Bitcoin prices climb above the key psychological level of $38,000 BTC/USD benefits from the regulatory environment USD weakness supports cryptocurrency Bitcoin Prices Edge Higher

Bitcoin prices have recently managed to break above the $38,000 handle after bulls regained confidence above key technical levels.

Visit the DailyFX Educational Center . . . → Read More: Bitcoin Setup – BTC/USD Bulls Take Control of the Trend

British Pound Outlook: GBP/USD Tests 1.3500 on Robust Data and BoE Rate Forecast

GBP/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis

UK manufacturing confidence underpins Sterling. Bank of England rate hike expectations hit 100%.

The final UK Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI (January) beat earlier expectations but fell short of last month’s robust figure. The dip lower reflected slower growth or new orders and a further easing in the rate . . . → Read More: British Pound Outlook: GBP/USD Tests 1.3500 on Robust Data and BoE Rate Forecast

EUR/USD Temporary Lift but Downside Risks Remain Ahead of ECB Event

EUR/USD Analysis: German Bund Yield temporarily trades above zero as markets bet against ECB rate hiking timeline Positioning readjustment in USD after a largely bid dollar towards month end EUR/USD Key Technical Levels Heading into ECB Rate Decision Advertisement German Bund Yield Breaches the Zero Mark Once more

Yesterday, German 10-year Bund yields . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Temporary Lift but Downside Risks Remain Ahead of ECB Event

Gold Price Forecast: Gold Breakdown Pulls Back – XAU/USD Levels

Gold Price talking points: Last week started with strength for Gold as the yellow metal tipped-up to the 1850 spot of resistance on the chart. But that was quickly faded with another injection of weakness around the FOMC rate decision. Gold prices are bouncing from fresh monthly lows on the final trading day of . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: Gold Breakdown Pulls Back – XAU/USD Levels

UK Partygate Investigation: Heavily Censored Report Given To PM Johnson, Sterling Unchanged

GBP/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis

Redacted report due to Metropolitan Police investigation. Boris Johnson escapes full censure for now.

The political pressure on UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is likely to ease in the short-term after civil servant Sue Gray presented the PM with the latest update of her investigation. The report . . . → Read More: UK Partygate Investigation: Heavily Censored Report Given To PM Johnson, Sterling Unchanged

Small, Short-Term Plays in Equity Indices: Top Trade Q1 2022

Despite trading near all-time highs, equity indices may be a source of volatility and two-sided action as changing interest rates, inflation, and COVID-variants are likely to continue dominating headlines in early 2022.

Volatility in Equity Indices

Source: tastytrade

Implied Volatility of Index ETFs 12/17/21

Implied volatility has been on the . . . → Read More: Small, Short-Term Plays in Equity Indices: Top Trade Q1 2022

Mexican GDP Contracts 0.1% in Q4 2021 and Enters Technical Recession

Mexican GDP Contracts in Q4 2021

Q4 GDP = – 0.1% (Quarter on Quarter)

GDP (Year on Year) = + 1.0%

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Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the fourth quarter by 0.1% from the previous three-month . . . → Read More: Mexican GDP Contracts 0.1% in Q4 2021 and Enters Technical Recession

EUR/USD Price Outlook: Euro Attempts Recovery, GDP Meets Expectations

EUR Analysis and News:

EZ GDP Prints Largely In-Line All Eyes on the ECB’s Possible Hawkish Pivot EUR/USD Recovers Slightly as USD Unwinds Recent Gains

EUROZONE GDP: Y/Y 4.6% vs Exp. 4.7%, Q/Q 0.3% vs Exp. 0.3%

GDP largely in line with consensus, albeit a slight miss on the yearly rate. . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Price Outlook: Euro Attempts Recovery, GDP Meets Expectations

Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Global risk appetite swung wildly last week. Wall Street saw a recovery into the weekend, with the S&P 500 seeing its largest surge since June 2020. Futures tracking the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed +1.33%, +0.73% and +0.03% respectively. The VIX ‘fear gauge’ closed slightly lower, but remains elevated. Equities in . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Euro Weekly Fundamental Forecast: EUR/USD Slide to Continue

Advertisement Euro Fundamental Forecast: Bearish

It’s difficult to consider the Euro’s potential without considering the glaringly obvious differences in the path to normalization for the ECB when compared to other major central banks. Admittedly, the Eurozone is very different in its make up to other single countries but right now its difficult . . . → Read More: Euro Weekly Fundamental Forecast: EUR/USD Slide to Continue

Gold Price Snaps January Opening Range Amid Detailed Fed Exit Strategy

Gold Price Talking Points

The price of gold trades to a fresh monthly low ($1780) as the Federal Reserve unveils a more detailed exit strategy, and fresh data prints coming out of the US may keep bullion under pressure as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is anticipated to show a further improvement . . . → Read More: Gold Price Snaps January Opening Range Amid Detailed Fed Exit Strategy

US Dollar Outlook: Hawkish Fed Has Markets Eyeing NFPs, RBA, ECB and BoE

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Bullish US Dollar continued gaining on risk aversion and Fed rate hike estimates Focus this week shifts to US non-farm payrolls, which includes wage data RBA, ECB and BoE could offer hawkish tilts, will this induce risk aversion?

The US Dollar roared higher this past week, catapulted by . . . → Read More: US Dollar Outlook: Hawkish Fed Has Markets Eyeing NFPs, RBA, ECB and BoE

Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook – Buy the Dip or Sell the Bounce?

Bitcoin (BTC) Chart and Analysis Bitcoin’s tepid rebound Important resistance levels will likely hold any move higher

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell put the dampers on risk markets late Wednesday by suggesting that monetary tightening in the US would be quicker and more potentially more aggressive than originally thought. Risk markets, already . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook – Buy the Dip or Sell the Bounce?

Crude Oil Forecast: Russia-Ukraine Crisis Creates Upside Risks for WTI & Brent Prices

WTI OIL WEEKLY FORECAST: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH Crude oil has risen aggressively in recent weeks amid supply and demand imbalances. Since its December low, WTI is up about 42%, while Brent has jumped roughly 39% Under normal circumstances, an overextended rally could lead to a reversal, but rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe may . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Forecast: Russia-Ukraine Crisis Creates Upside Risks for WTI & Brent Prices

Australian Dollar Outlook: All Eyes on the RBA as Fed Fallout Continues

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: BEARISH

The Australian Dollar started last week on the back foot after the release of PMI data on Monday. The January numbers show the IHS Markit Australian Composite PMI fell to 45.3 from 54.9 previously.

Tuesday saw the release of CPI with both the headline and trimmed . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Outlook: All Eyes on the RBA as Fed Fallout Continues

British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Awaits Potential BoE Balance Sheet Bonanza

GBP/USD ANALYSIS Advertisement BRITISH POUND FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: MIXED

Sterling has been on a rapid decline against the U.S. dollar since mid-January which was exacerbated this week after the Federal Reserve emphasized rate hikes in the near future. The UK comes under pressure from inflation (see chart below) as with most nations across the . . . → Read More: British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Awaits Potential BoE Balance Sheet Bonanza

3 Key Options Trading Tips

Breaking News US PCE Heats Up: Core PCE at 4.9% vs 4.8% Expected

PCE Inflation Beat Fails to Extend Dollar Bull Run PCE = 5.8% (actual) vs 5.7% (previous) Core PCE = 4.9% (actual) vs 4.8 (estimate)

Customize and filter live economic data via our DaliyFX economic calendar

Personal Consumption Expenditure naturally attracts a lot of attention as the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. . . . → Read More: Breaking News US PCE Heats Up: Core PCE at 4.9% vs 4.8% Expected

US Dollar Remains Bid, However, Nears Overextended Territory

US Dollar Analysis and News

USD Remains Bid, Markets Pricing in 4 Hikes By September Possible Overextension in the Dollar on Month End Flows, Eyes on London 4pm FIx

The US Dollar remains on the front foot following the fallout of Powell’s hawkish press conference (full commentary). At the same, I also . . . → Read More: US Dollar Remains Bid, However, Nears Overextended Territory

AUD/USD Breaking Down as Multi-Month Support Creaks

AUD/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis

AUD/USD testing psychological and multi-moth support. RBA monetary policy meeting next week.

The Australian dollar continues to weaken against a powerful US dollar with AUD/USD now pressing down on a notable multi-month support level. This level, either side of 0.7000, has held three tests over the past . . . → Read More: AUD/USD Breaking Down as Multi-Month Support Creaks

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Bear Flag Break Seeks Support

EUR/USD Analysis Stacked economic calendar next week. ECB in focus. Strong downtrend may be waning. Advertisement EURO FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

After the Federal Reserve’s hawkish slant earlier this week, the ECB will be in full view next week particularly around its inflationary stance. The divergence between the two major central banks are stark however . . . → Read More: Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Bear Flag Break Seeks Support

Gold Price Drop Tests 7-Month Uptrend as Key US Inflation Data Looms

GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK: Gold prices sink as the markets re-price for a more hawkish Fed Traders’ focus now turns to December’s US PCE inflation gauge Prices are on the cusp of breaching 7-month rising trend support

Gold prices have taken a beating in the wake of this week’s FOMC monetary policy announcement. A . . . → Read More: Gold Price Drop Tests 7-Month Uptrend as Key US Inflation Data Looms

DXY Dollar Index Leaps to New Highs on a Hawkish Fed. Will USD Keep Going North?

US Dollar, DXY Index, Treasuries, Fed, Gold, Crude Oil – Talking Points The US Dollar has found solid footing as the Fed signals rates liftoff Energy, commodities and industrial metals remain at elevated levels With short-end yields on the rise, will the US Dollar make new highs?

The US dollar soared as the . . . → Read More: DXY Dollar Index Leaps to New Highs on a Hawkish Fed. Will USD Keep Going North?

Gold Price Forecast: Gold Goes Reversal, 1800 Snap Back on FOMC

Gold talking points: Gold gave bulls a brief moment of excitement earlier this week when prices tested through the 1850 level of resistance. But, that test was short-lived and it took place during my Tuesday webinar. I remarked that the setup looked prime for a fade (reversal) and now Gold prices are $50 lower, . . . → Read More: Gold Price Forecast: Gold Goes Reversal, 1800 Snap Back on FOMC

British Pound Technical Analysis: GBP/USD Nosedives After Fed Meeting

Pound, Dollar Talking Points: GBP/USD under pressure, UK politics weigh on sentiment US Dollar strength undermines Sterling after hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve The future of Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains uncertain, a potential catalyst for price action

The British Pound has dropped to a fresh monthly low against the US Dollar . . . → Read More: British Pound Technical Analysis: GBP/USD Nosedives After Fed Meeting

GDP Growth Surpassed Expectations Despite Omicron

GDP Main Talking Points: GDP increased to an annual rate of 6.9% in Q4 of 2021 GDP accelerates after reporting only 2.3% in Q3 of 2021

Economic Calendar

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

grew at a 6.9% through the last quarter of 2021 which came in way above median forecasts of 5.5%. . . . → Read More: GDP Growth Surpassed Expectations Despite Omicron

Expected SARB Hike Comes to Fruition at 4%, USD/ZAR Subdued

RAND ANALYSIS SARB raises rates by 25bps to 4%. Initial reaction: marginal rand weakness Advertisement MPC PROVIDES NO SURPRISES LEAVING RAND FAINTLY LOWER

The SARB announced on Thursday that the repo rate will be increased to 4% from 3.75%. Four members of the MPC voted for a rate hike while one member voted . . . → Read More: Expected SARB Hike Comes to Fruition at 4%, USD/ZAR Subdued

EUR/USD Hit After Fed Hawkish Confirmation

EUR/USD, Post FOMC Analysis: Diverging rate expectations between Fed and ECB fires EUR/USD lower Italian elections enters home stretch as the all-important fourth ballot proceeds today EUR/USD Key technical levels analyzed and discussed Advertisement

The Euro is marginally weaker against most G10 currencies but is particularly susceptible to the renewed dollar strength after . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Hit After Fed Hawkish Confirmation

Trading EURUSD and USDJPY for FOMC with John Kicklighter and Pete Multant

As you get your FOMC price action setups and fundamental forecasts in order, DailyFX is here to help. Our very own CEO of IG US Pete Multant and Global Head of Content John Kicklighter just hosted a detailed webinar ahead of today’s rate decision.

Fed Outlook is Hawkish

. . . → Read More: Trading EURUSD and USDJPY for FOMC with John Kicklighter and Pete Multant

BoC Leaves Rates Unchanged at 0.25% – Foresees Inflation at 3% for 2022

BoC Decides to Leave Rates Unchanged

* Update 15:28 GMT

Bank of Canada decides against raising the overnight target rate. Remains at 0.25%

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the Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by 4% in 2022 and about 3½ % in 2023. . . . → Read More: BoC Leaves Rates Unchanged at 0.25% – Foresees Inflation at 3% for 2022

The Bank of Canada Holds Key Rate Unchanged, 0.25%

Bank of Canada Main Talking Points: BoC held its target for overnight rate at the lower bound of 0.25%, bank rate at 0.5%, and deposit rate at 0.25% Reports economic slack has now been absorbed with the Bank removing its forward guidance The Bank of Canada

decided to hold its target for rates . . . → Read More: The Bank of Canada Holds Key Rate Unchanged, 0.25%

Supportive USD Fundamentals and DXY Setup Ahead of FOMC

US Dollar and DXY Analysis: USD Fundamentals look supportive ahead of FOMC – safe-haven and liquidity Dollar Index (DXY) positioning only slightly lighter after sizeable dollar sell-off Key DXY technical levels ahead of the FOMC meeting and presser US Dollar Fundamentals: USD Supported Ahead of FOMC Meeting

The US dollar has experienced a . . . → Read More: Supportive USD Fundamentals and DXY Setup Ahead of FOMC

Bank of Canada Preview: How Will the Canadian Dollar React?

USD/CAD, BOC Price Analysis & News

BoC Rate Hike is a Coin Toss Markets Attach 80% Probability of a Hike, While Economists Stick to Unchanged

OVERVIEW: The Bank of Canada meeting is the first of today’s keenly awaited central bank meetings. With the direction of monetary policy abundantly clear, today’s meeting is . . . → Read More: Bank of Canada Preview: How Will the Canadian Dollar React?

Central Bank Watch: Fed Speeches, Interest Rate Expectations Update; January Fed Meeting Preview

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Advertisement Central Bank Watch Overview: Rates markets are anticipating the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25-bps in March, as soon as the QE taper is finished. Expectations for a 50-bps rate hike persist, though they have pulled back considerably ahead of the January Fed meeting. The commentary around the . . . → Read More: Central Bank Watch: Fed Speeches, Interest Rate Expectations Update; January Fed Meeting Preview

Bitcoin Price Setup – Will the Fed drive the next move for BTC/USD?

Bitcoin, USD Talking Points Bitcoin prices cling to support as Fed decision drives sentiment BTC/USD sell-off loses steam, prices temporarily stabilize around key psychological level of $36,000 USD safe-haven appeal weighs on risk assets Will the FOMC pave the way for Bitcoin?

A shift in risk sentiment currently continues to impact Bitcoin (BTC) . . . → Read More: Bitcoin Price Setup – Will the Fed drive the next move for BTC/USD?

IMF Cuts U.S. Growth for 2022 in WEO Forecasts

IMF U.S. Main Talking Points: IMF reduced U.S. growth forecast to 4.0% for 2022 Tapering, Inflation and Omicron are main contributors to economy slowdown

IMF reported U.S. growth at 4.0% for 2022, down 1.2 percentage points than initially predicted. With the new Omicron variant, U.S. renewed restrictions and enforced lockdowns. The path that . . . → Read More: IMF Cuts U.S. Growth for 2022 in WEO Forecasts

FX Pairs to consider in the Wake of Geopolitical Tensions, Stock Market Jitters

FX Analysis: S&P jitters may signal greater volatility ahead as Russia, US situation on a knife-edge AUD/USD and USD/ZAR pairs highlighted as USD often favored during uncertainty This article makes use of fundamental FX themes and topics. Take a look at our comprehensive Education section for more info

Yesterday’s rare and unusual move . . . → Read More: FX Pairs to consider in the Wake of Geopolitical Tensions, Stock Market Jitters

Gold (XAU/USD) Buffeted by Fed Rate Hike Risk and Russia/Ukraine War Fears

Gold Price (XAU/USD), Chart, and Analysis Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy decision remains key. Gold getting a risk-off bid as Russia ramps up invasion fears.

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Tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision and chair Powell’s subsequent press conference will hopefully give the markets a . . . → Read More: Gold (XAU/USD) Buffeted by Fed Rate Hike Risk and Russia/Ukraine War Fears

Gold Price Setup: Bullion bulls lead the way, XAU/USD Levels

Gold, US Dollar (USD) Talking Points: Risk off sentiment boosts safe-haven Gold

Gold prices have held onto recent gains as investors reduced their appetite for risk. With rising tensions between Russia and the Ukraine, geopolitical risks and the upcoming Fed meeting allowed the precious metal to resume a move towards trendline resistance.

. . . → Read More: Gold Price Setup: Bullion bulls lead the way, XAU/USD Levels

US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD

US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD Talking Points:

The US Dollar is running higher as stocks continue to get slammed ahead of the January FOMC rate decision. The fear is that the Fed is nearing a hawkish pivot with unknown consequence. The bank said they were looking at a possible 2-3 rate hikes . . . → Read More: US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD

US Dollar Remains Firm Despite Soft US PMI, Equities Under Pressure

U.S. PMI Main Talking Points: Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash: 55 actual vs 56.7 estimated Markit Composite PMI Flash: 50.8 Markit Services PMI Flash: 50.9 actual vs 57.6 estimated US growth slows to an 18-month low with Omicron wave U.S. PMI

being an important economic indicator brings to light the difficulties that the manufacturing . . . → Read More: US Dollar Remains Firm Despite Soft US PMI, Equities Under Pressure

Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Russell 2000 Mauled as Risk-Off Sentiment Dominates Price Action

NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, Russell 2000: Prices, Charts ,and Analysis

Equity markets testing fresh multi-week lows. Market heavyweight’s Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla all announce earnings this week.

Global risk markets are under heavy selling pressure as the week starts with equities hit across the board, while cryptocurrencies are again registering heavy losses. . . . → Read More: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Russell 2000 Mauled as Risk-Off Sentiment Dominates Price Action

USD Longs Slashed, CAD Flips Net Long, No More Shorts to Fuel GBP/USD Rise

US Dollar, GBP/USD, USD/CAD COT Report –Analysis

USD Longs Slashed CAD Flips Net Long, Asymmetrical Risks Increase No More Short Squeeze Fuel for GBP

USD Longs Slashed, CAD Flips Net Long, No More Shorts to Fuel GBP/USD Rise – COT Report

In the week through to January 14th, a third of . . . → Read More: USD Longs Slashed, CAD Flips Net Long, No More Shorts to Fuel GBP/USD Rise

Weekly Fundamental US Dollar Forecast: Will the Fed Derail the Dollar Rebound?

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Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral Fed rate hike expectations have ratcheted higher in recent weeks. If the FOMC disappoints, the US Dollar may be in trouble. What makes the US Dollar so vulnerable to a FOMC disappointment? Positioning in the futures market – which remains near its longest level . . . → Read More: Weekly Fundamental US Dollar Forecast: Will the Fed Derail the Dollar Rebound?

Markets Week Ahead: Nasdaq 100, Gold, Bitcoin, USD, Fed, Tech Earnings, Volatility Returns

Global risk appetite sharply deteriorated this past week as the Volatility Index (VIX), which is the market’s preferred ‘fear gauge’, closed at its highest since early December. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 7.5%, the most since March 2020 when markets were in the midst of the pandemic-induced selloff. S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Nasdaq 100, Gold, Bitcoin, USD, Fed, Tech Earnings, Volatility Returns

Apple and Tesla Earnings in Focus as Nasdaq 100 Falls into a Technical Correction

NASDAQ 100 FORECAST: Neutral The Nasdaq 100 index fell over 10% from December high as earnings season arrives Investors worried that rising wage inflation and Fed rate hikes may dampen earnings prospects Apple, Tesla and Microsoft results are in focus this week, which will set the tone for Nasdaq 100

The Dow . . . → Read More: Apple and Tesla Earnings in Focus as Nasdaq 100 Falls into a Technical Correction

USD/JPY Rate Outlook Hinges on Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

Japanese Yen Talking Points

USD/JPY approaches the monthly low (113.38) amid the selloff in global equity prices, but the Federal Reserve interest rate decision may sway the near-term outlook for the exchange rate as the central bank prepares to normalize monetary policy.

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Neutral

Swings in . . . → Read More: USD/JPY Rate Outlook Hinges on Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

EUR/USD Forecast: Key EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Levels to Watch

EUR FUNDAMENTAL HIGHLIGHTS: Prepping for the Fed EUR/USD Holds Onto Trendline EUR/GBP Recovers from Key Support

Despite closing the week on a positive note, the tone has been generally softer in the Euro, with market participants fading the recent breakout. As of now, it is really about gearing up for the next . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Forecast: Key EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Levels to Watch

Bitcoin (BTC) Breaks Major Support as Global Risk Outlook Sours

Bitcoin (BTC) Chart and Analysis Bitcoin slumps, dragging the crypto market down with it. Global markets turn risk-off.

No sooner had I posted an article highlighting the lack of Bitcoin volatility and sideways price action, than the market turned sharply lower with Bitcoin slicing through multi-month support with relative ease. The sell-off . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC) Breaks Major Support as Global Risk Outlook Sours

Australian Dollar Outlook: All Eyes on CPI Ahead of RBA and Fed Meetings

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: BULLISH The Australian Dollar turns to local CPI for clues on RBA action China’s PBOC easing boosted an all already hot commodity market Fed hawkishness appears priced into USD. Will AUD/USD benefit?

After being held hostage to mostly external factors so far this year, the focus for AUD/USD will . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Outlook: All Eyes on CPI Ahead of RBA and Fed Meetings

Gold Prices Rise on Falling U.S. Treasury Yields and Geopolitical Risk Ahead of FOMC

GOLD TECHNICAL FORECAST: MIXED Advertisement XAU/USD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

Spot gold has been on the climbing this week after markets continue with the view that a hawkish Fed is priced in leaving the U.S. dollar disappointing from earlier expectations. Investors have been looking elsewhere for opportunities which have kept the dollar muted despite U.S. . . . → Read More: Gold Prices Rise on Falling U.S. Treasury Yields and Geopolitical Risk Ahead of FOMC

Sterling Fundamental Forecast: GBP Slides Before PM ‘Party’ Report Next Week

Sterling Weekly Forecast: Neutral, Due to Uncertain Political Outcome Next week will prove decisive for PM Johnson and the Pound Sterling unfazed by weak retail sales data due to bumper November shopping Sterling remains net short

Boris Johnson’s fate as Prime Minister will become a lot clearer next week as Sue Gray’s report . . . → Read More: Sterling Fundamental Forecast: GBP Slides Before PM ‘Party’ Report Next Week

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Price Forecasts: Stocks Rocked on Rates Ahead of the Fed

S&P 500, Nasdaq Talking Points:

It’s been an eventful week across U.S. equity markets as worries about rates continue to get priced-in. This week was especially volatile given a couple of factors in the backdrop. The Fed has a rate decision next Wednesday and markets are geared for the bank to lay the . . . → Read More: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Price Forecasts: Stocks Rocked on Rates Ahead of the Fed

Canada Retail Sales for November

Talking Points: Retail Sales m/m at 0.7% vs expected 1.2% Retail Sales ex-autos 1.1% vs expected 1.3% Canadian Retail Sales

below estimated figures demonstrating consumer spending has begun to slow even before renewing restrictions within the provinces. Retail Sales has been holding up better than expected for the past few months but, it’s . . . → Read More: Canada Retail Sales for November

GBP/USD Dragged Lower by Weak Retail Sales, Ongoing Political Turmoil

GBP/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis

Civil servants ‘party gate’ report to be released next week. UK retail sales miss expectations by a sizeable margin.

The political pressure on UK PM Boris Johnson continues unabated with media reports that Boris Johnson knew that the Downing Street party he attended was a social event . . . → Read More: GBP/USD Dragged Lower by Weak Retail Sales, Ongoing Political Turmoil

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Breaches 40K on Global Risk Aversion

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis: Robinhood rolls out crypto wallet and El Salvador to provide crypto loans to SMEs Bitcoin and other cryptos plunge below 40k as global risk sentiment sours Bitcoin (BTC/USD) key technical levels analyzed Advertisement El Salvador’s Crypto Loans and Robinhood to Offer Crypto Wallets

In other news, El Salvador’s National Commission . . . → Read More: Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Breaches 40K on Global Risk Aversion

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Awaits Fed Risk

Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points

Choppy G10 Trade Persists Fed at Risk of Disappointing Uber Hawkish Expectations AUD Susceptible to a Short Squeeze

Choppy G10 Trade Persists

Yet another choppy week for the Australian Dollar and further emphasising the tug and pull of several narratives that G10 FX has been . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Awaits Fed Risk

Rampant Rand Clings on to Best Performing Currency Against USD YTD

RAND ANALYSIS Rand resilient after local inflationary data. Risk-off sentiment dismissed by ZAR bulls. USD/ZAR trading at key area of confluence. Advertisement ZAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

TAILWINDS FOR THE RAND

The South African rand remains at the top spot globally as the best performing currency in 2022 against the U.S. dollar. A recent . . . → Read More: Rampant Rand Clings on to Best Performing Currency Against USD YTD

Gold, Silver Price Analysis: Gold Gears Up for Break as Silver Leads the Way

Gold, Silver Talking Points: It’s been a big week for metals, with both Silver and Gold posing meaningful breakouts. But – there’s been divergence with strong out-performance from Silver, jumping by almost 12% over the past two weeks while Gold has been up a more modest 3.6%. Silver can be a more attractive venue . . . → Read More: Gold, Silver Price Analysis: Gold Gears Up for Break as Silver Leads the Way

SA Rand Price Analysis: ZAR Gains as CPI (5.9%) Fuels Rate Hike Probability

South African Rand Analysis:

SA Inflation Reaches Upper Bound of 3-6% Target Band South African Rand – The Best Performing Currency vs the Dollar in 2022 USD/ZAR approaches key decision point – technical levels identified Advertisement SA Inflation Reaches Upper Bound of 3-6% Target Band

Yesterday, StatsSA released Consumer Price Index (inflation) . . . → Read More: SA Rand Price Analysis: ZAR Gains as CPI (5.9%) Fuels Rate Hike Probability

Riding The Bull Flattener: Top Trade Q1 2022

Heading into next year, tighter monetary policy and a deceleration of economic growth are likely to present a more challenging environment for risk assets. In rate of change terms, economic growth as measured by U.S. Y/Y Real GDP is likely to slow against very steep base effects, returning to a level reminiscent of . . . → Read More: Riding The Bull Flattener: Top Trade Q1 2022

Turkish Central Bank Leaves Policy Unchanged – USD/TRY Pares Initial Dip

USD/TRY, CBRT Price Analysis & News

Turkish Central Bank Leaves Repo Rate Unchanged for the First Time Since August Initial USD/TRY Dip Quickly Pared

The Turkish Central Bank left its weekly repo rate unchanged 14%, in-line with expectations. This also marks the first time that the repo rate has been left unchanged . . . → Read More: Turkish Central Bank Leaves Policy Unchanged – USD/TRY Pares Initial Dip

Bitcoin (BTC) Remains Listless – Where Has All the Volatility Gone?

Bitcoin (BTC) Chart and Analysis Bitcoin continues to crab sideways. Volatility remains low despite a ‘death-cross’ formation.

For a product famed for its wild price swings and double-digit percentage moves, Bitcoin is currently experiencing a lull in price action with volatility currently sitting at a multi-month low. Using the Average True Range (ATR) . . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC) Remains Listless – Where Has All the Volatility Gone?

Earnings Season: PG, BAC, and UNH Surpass Expectations

Earnings Season Talking Points: Proctor and Gamble optimistically raises growth forecasts for fiscal 2022. Bank of America’s overall performance strengthened by the investment banking division. UnitedHealth Group tops both earnings and revenues forecasted.

Corporate earnings continue to push through the recent pressures of inflation, challenging operating environments and disrupted supply chain issues from . . . → Read More: Earnings Season: PG, BAC, and UNH Surpass Expectations

Canadian Inflation Rate 4.8% as Expected – Markets Look to BoC Next Week

Core Inflation Rate = 4% vs 3.5% (Estimate)

Inflation Rate YoY = 4.8% vs 4.8 (Estimate)

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Canadian CPI has arguably become one of the most intriguing data points of 2022 thus far, not far behind the US inflation print because markets currently expect as many as six rate hikes this . . . → Read More: Canadian Inflation Rate 4.8% as Expected – Markets Look to BoC Next Week

Boris Johnson Risks Facing Vote of No-Confidence – Impact on GBP/USD

GBPUSD Analysis and Talking Points:

GBP So Far Unfazed by Rising Political Uncertainty UK PM Johnson’s Tenure Hinges on Sue Gray’s Investigation

See our quarterly GBP forecast to learn what will drive prices through Q1

UK politics have been stealing the limelight in recent weeks following revelations that the UK government . . . → Read More: Boris Johnson Risks Facing Vote of No-Confidence – Impact on GBP/USD

EUR/USD Fails to Recover Despite 10-Year German Bond Yields Turning Positive

EUR/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis

The German 10-year Bund now offers a positive yield. EUR/USD is unable to shake off US dollar strength. Retail traders continue to build net-long EUR/USD positions.

Keep up to date with all market-moving data releases and events by using the DailyFX Calendar

The yield on the . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Fails to Recover Despite 10-Year German Bond Yields Turning Positive

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Range Trading Setup as US Yields Rise

XAU/USD Analysis: US treasury yields rise across the board: 2,5,10 and 20 year securities Gold’s range trading conditions resume as real yields dampen gold’s long term potential XAU/USD Key technical levels analysed Advertisement

Gold has remained rather quiet as inflation ticks up in the developed world but now we are seeing a number . . . → Read More: Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Range Trading Setup as US Yields Rise

Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Resistance, EUR/JPY Support

Euro, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Talking Points:

Last week was a big outing for the Euro, but not really because anything to do with the Euro-zone, at least not directly.

The US dollar broke down to a fresh two-month-low, helping EUR/USD to run up to a fresh two-month-high. This move filled-in the ascending . . . → Read More: Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Resistance, EUR/JPY Support

New Variant Greets New Year: Top Trade Q1 2022

As the calendar turns to 2022, the slate is wiped clean of the buoyant enthusiasm that carried risk markets higher through the second half of 2020 and all of 2021. Aggressive fiscal stimulus is now in the rearview mirror, while central banks globally have begun to roll back asset purchases – and in . . . → Read More: New Variant Greets New Year: Top Trade Q1 2022

Crude Oil Outlook: UAE Attack Drives WTI, Brent to 7-Year High

Crude Oil, WTI, Brent – Talking Points Crude oil prices climb to a highest level since 2014 UAE (United Arab Emirates) attack adds to supply concerns Will geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine hinder the ability for OPEC+ to increase supply? Attack on UAE Adds to Geopolitical Risks, Oil Rallies

Oil prices have . . . → Read More: Crude Oil Outlook: UAE Attack Drives WTI, Brent to 7-Year High

Gold (XAU/USD) Slips Lower, Rattled by Soaring US Treasury Yields

Gold Price (XAU/USD), Chart, and Analysis

UST 2-year yield back above 1%, UST 10-year eyes 1.9%. Gold looks set to move lower. IG client sentiment remains mixed.

US Treasury yields jumped overnight with the interest-rate sensitive 2-year printing a fresh 23-month high of 1.05%, while the benchmark 10-yearhit 1.83%, a level last . . . → Read More: Gold (XAU/USD) Slips Lower, Rattled by Soaring US Treasury Yields

European Stocks Drop as Yields Tick Higher, EU Stocks, DAX

EU Stocks 50, DAX Analysis: Uptick in US -2 year yield has EU equities trading lower – in lead up to Fed meeting next week Euro Stoxx Index weighed down by tech, real estate and financial sectors DAX, EU Stocks technical analysis and key near-term levels to watch

European stocks followed the Asian . . . → Read More: European Stocks Drop as Yields Tick Higher, EU Stocks, DAX

EUR/USD Price Outlook: Dollar Recovery Threatens Euro Gains

EUR/USD Analysis:

Dollar recovery looks to end EUR/USD upside; key technical levels assessed EU inflation data, ECB speeches, ZEW sentiment and PMI data ahead IG client sentiment at odds with large speculators “smart money” Advertisement

EUR/USD has been climbing steadily within an ascending channel until Wednesday, when the US dollar experienced a . . . → Read More: EUR/USD Price Outlook: Dollar Recovery Threatens Euro Gains

Do More of What Works and Less of What Doesn’t

The admonition that traders ought to let profitable bets run while cutting losing one’s quickly has long since entered the realm of the cliché. It is sound advice, nevertheless. Applying such thinking oftentimes distils to trade construction: you should have a better than 1:1 risk to reward ratio, we are taught over . . . → Read More: Do More of What Works and Less of What Doesn’t

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Chasing Oil, CAD Data Key for BoC Hike

CAD, USD/CAD, Analysis and Talking Points

Canadian Data In Focus for Near Term BoC Outlook Canadian Dollar Underpinned by Oil

Canadian Data In Focus for Near Term BoC Outlook

Today will see the first of two major data points that could cement a January rate hike from the Bank of Canada. . . . → Read More: Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Chasing Oil, CAD Data Key for BoC Hike

Japanese Yen Outlook: Large USD/JPY Option Expiries in Focus Ahead of BOJ

USD/JPY ANALYSIS Advertisement JAPANESE YEN FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

2022 has been relatively strong for the Japanese Yen against an overextended U.S. dollar. The Yen’s safe-haven appeal has also come into play with tensions surrounding Russia and Ukraine. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields popped to yearly highs on Friday supportive of USD strength (USD/JPY is the . . . → Read More: Japanese Yen Outlook: Large USD/JPY Option Expiries in Focus Ahead of BOJ

British Pound (GBP): A Potentially Volatile Cocktail of Heavyweight Data and Politics

GBP/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis

UK data will steer Sterling in the short term. ‘Operation Save Big Dog’ plans revealed.

Keep up to date with all market-moving data releases and events by using the DailyFX Calendar

A slow start to the week with the US celebrating Martin Luther King Day will . . . → Read More: British Pound (GBP): A Potentially Volatile Cocktail of Heavyweight Data and Politics

Markets Week Ahead: Nasdaq 100, US Dollar, Australian Dollar, China GDP, Yen, BoJ

There continued to be hesitancy in global market sentiment. Wall Street started off 2022 on a sour note, though the second week was less painful. Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed. This is as Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures declined about 0.8% and 0.3% respectively. European and Asia-Pacific benchmark stock indices did . . . → Read More: Markets Week Ahead: Nasdaq 100, US Dollar, Australian Dollar, China GDP, Yen, BoJ

Goldman Sachs and Netflix Earnings Eyed as S&P 500 Faces "Reality Check"

S&P 500 FORECAST: BULLISH The S&P 500 index is hovering near all-time highs as earnings season arrives Analysts are anticipating a 22% YoY earnings growth rate for the broader market in Q4 Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Netflix results are in focus this week

The Dow Jones, S&P 500 . . . → Read More: Goldman Sachs and Netflix Earnings Eyed as S&P 500 Faces "Reality Check"

Japanese Yen Fundamental Forecast: USD/JPY Eyes Bank of Japan

Japanese Yen Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Japanese Yen outperformed versus G10 peers last week, reversing recent trend Bank of Japan rate decision expected to bring about changes to inflation outlook Yen weakness likely to resume against increasingly hawkish global central banks

The Japanese Yen managed to post gains against most of its peer currencies . . . → Read More: Japanese Yen Fundamental Forecast: USD/JPY Eyes Bank of Japan

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Tests Big Levels

AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Neutral AUD/USD remains bounded by trendline resistance US Dollar strength holds the Australian Dollar at bay Can bulls trading AUD/USD reclaim possession of the primary trend?

The AustralianDollarhas remained under pressure against its US Dollar counterpart as traders price in rising geopolitical tensions and easing USD strength.

Although fundamental . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Tests Big Levels

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD on the Offensive, but Road Ahead Remains Tough

Euro Fundamental Forecast: Neutral Euro gained last week, but this seemed as a result of US Dollar losses Traders may have overcooked hawkish Fed hawkish policy estimates Monetary policy divergence likely to make road ahead tough for EUR Last Week’s Recap

The Euro turned a corner this past week, with it breaking . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: EUR/USD on the Offensive, but Road Ahead Remains Tough

USD Outlook: Economic Impact from Fed Tightening Shackles Dollar

U.S. DOLLAR FUNDMANTAL FORECAST: BULLISH Flattening yield curve impedes dollar prospects. Economic breather next week. Advertisement DXY FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

The U.S. economy is displaying solid performance metrics particularly in the labor market. Coupled with a hawkish central bank in the midst of extreme inflationary pressures, the greenback is yet to take off as . . . → Read More: USD Outlook: Economic Impact from Fed Tightening Shackles Dollar

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) – Trying to Build a Base Off Multi-Month Lows

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Charts and Analysis The first test of important support holds. A handful of altcoins including Dogecoin, Near Protocol, and Harmony, rally

In last weekend’s Bitcoin article I noted that support at just under $40k would need to hold if Bitcoin wanted to look to re-set higher.

. . . → Read More: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) – Trying to Build a Base Off Multi-Month Lows

Australian Dollar Outlook: US Dollar Drop Boosts AUD. Will China GDP Add Momentum?

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: BULLISH The Australian Dollar strength is by default of US Dollar fragility The Fed’s monetary policy tightening appears fully priced for now China GDP might lift commodity demand. Will AUD/USD rise with it?

The Australian Dollar rallied hard this week as the US Dollar plummeted against most currencies and . . . → Read More: Australian Dollar Outlook: US Dollar Drop Boosts AUD. Will China GDP Add Momentum?

Euro Technical Analysis: Next Leg Lower Beginning? Setups for EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD

Advertisement Euro Outlook: Technical evidence is accumulating that the Euro’s resiliency is in the rearview mirror. A false bullish breakout may have transpired in EUR/USD rates, while both EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY rates have already started to push towards their monthly low. Per the IG Client Sentiment Index, each of the major EUR-crosses have . . . → Read More: Euro Technical Analysis: Next Leg Lower Beginning? Setups for EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD

GBP Forecast: Boris Johnson Under Pressire to Resign, GBP Capped

GBP/USDFUNDAMENTAL HIGHLIGHTS:

Boris Johnson Looks to be on Borrowed Time GBP/USD Rise Capped at 200DMA

The robust performance in GBP/USD has largely been a by-product of a softer USD, albeit with some help from an unwind in short GBP positions. However, with Cable essentially moving in a straight line since the turn . . . → Read More: GBP Forecast: Boris Johnson Under Pressire to Resign, GBP Capped

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Falls to 68.8 as Inflation Dampens Individuals’ Outlook

Consumer Sentiment Reaches Second Lowest Level in 10 Years University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (JAN) = 68.8 Forecast = 70

Customize and filter live economic data via our DaliyFX economic calendar

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The Sentiment Index has averaged just 70.3 in the past six months, whereas in the first six months of . . . → Read More: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Falls to 68.8 as Inflation Dampens Individuals’ Outlook

US Retail Sales -1.9% vs 0% Forecasted

Retail Sales -1.9 versus 0% Forecasted

US retail sales released for the month of December Retail Sales actuals revised for prior months

US Retail sales from December -1.9 with initial forecast of 0%. While December Retail sales may have fallen below expectations, there is seasonality associated with holiday months since consumer spending . . . → Read More: US Retail Sales -1.9% vs 0% Forecasted

S&P 500 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

S&P 500 Analysis and News

S&P 500 | Hawkish Fed Trade Exhausted Heading Into Most Exciting Bank of Japan Meeting in Years Russian Roulette: Geopolitical Tensions Rising Potential Headwinds From OPEX

S&P 500 | Hawkish Fed Trade Exhausted

After the initial pressure stemming from an ever more hawkish Fed with quantitative . . . → Read More: S&P 500 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

Understand the Risk. Accept the Risk.

Trades that offer the potential for a high return almost always come with a high amount of risk. A smart trade comes with an understanding of that underlying risk. However, merely understanding that risk isn’t enough. You have to be able to accept that risk. In 2021, I was in the mindset . . . → Read More: Understand the Risk. Accept the Risk.

US Dollar (DXY) Inspects Short-Term Support, Oversold Signal Flashes

US Dollar Price, Chart, and Analysis

US Treasury two-year yields touch a fresh 23-month high. US dollar sell-off begins to stall.

The interest rate-sensitive UST two-year is currently quoted around 0.935%, its highest level since February 2020, as bond markets continue to price in a round of 0.25% rate hikes in the . . . → Read More: US Dollar (DXY) Inspects Short-Term Support, Oversold Signal Flashes

Euro Forecast: Dollar Sell-Off May be Losing Steam as EUR/USD Nears 1.15

EUR/USD Analysis Look out for the dip! ECB’s Lagarde Speech could support Euro gains. Technical pattern could lead to further EUR/USD downside. Advertisement EURO FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

The dollar is the talk of the town at the moment after Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and elevated U.S. inflation levels led to a fading greenback. The . . . → Read More: Euro Forecast: Dollar Sell-Off May be Losing Steam as EUR/USD Nears 1.15

It’s Important to Have Conviction

2021 was a good year if you were long risk across a number of asset classes. But not everyone found the environment successful, subsumed by the deleterious barrage of negative news headlines about the COVID-19 delta variant, the omicron variant, supply chain issues, inflation, the US debt ceiling, Evergrande…the list goes on. . . . → Read More: It’s Important to Have Conviction

USD/ZAR Outlook: SA Rand Gets Much Needed Boost From USD Sell-off

USD/ZAR Talking Points and Analysis: ZAR appreciates after post CPI dollar sell-off SA data remains light but USD economic data heats up with retail sales and Michigan consumer sentiment later this week USD/ZAR key technical levels analyzed and discussed South African Rand Benefits from Sharp USD Drop After CPI Data

Yesterday’s headline CPI . . . → Read More: USD/ZAR Outlook: SA Rand Gets Much Needed Boost From USD Sell-off

ARKK in Peril as the Fed Pivots to a Higher Interest Rates Regime: Top Trade Q1 2022

The Federal Reserve made one thing abundantly clear at the end of its December meeting: the U.S. economy is moving toward tighter monetary policy amid upside inflation risks and improving labor market conditions. At this gathering, the FOMC doubled the pace of its taper to $30 billion per month, a move that will . . . → Read More: ARKK in Peril as the Fed Pivots to a Higher Interest Rates Regime: Top Trade Q1 2022

Gold (XAU/USD) Running Into a Familiar Zone of Resistance

Gold Price (XAU/USD), Chart, and Analysis

Gold eyes overhead resistance. US dollar weakens despite supportive US Treasury yields.

How to Manage the Emotions of Trading

Gold is pushing back towards noted resistance between $1,830/oz. and $1,836/oz. despite four-decade high US inflation. The precious metal is benefitting from a bout of weakness . . . → Read More: Gold (XAU/USD) Running Into a Familiar Zone of Resistance